What Data IS reliable at This Point?
Tanta over at Calculated Risk was allover some suspect reporting and crappy data that was let loose over the past couple of days. I refer you to her excellent analysis for details. The key point I want to hammer home is how amazingly unreliable almost every data point is at this point.
Today the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America reported that a major lender’s change to its methodology for recording delinquencies led to a dramatic increase in reported defaults, to 73,880 in April versus 58,131 in March. The HousingWire article (http://www.housingwire.com/2008/05/30/insured-defaults-surge-thanks-to-reporting-quirk/) article says:
"The jump essentially makes it impossible to know whether defaults actually did increase or decrease relative to April’s statistics; MICA did not release statistics summarizing the impact of the reporting change on overall reported defaults."
Well that's useful, yes? Add this to the bogus inflation stats, LIBOR being fudged, Level III asset games, and fixed unemployment stats and what we have is a mirage of data that is worthless as economic barometer. The GDP numbers are also suspect at this point as government spending may be goosed just to dodge a "technical" recession.
What this means to me is that it is very hard to value anything in this atmosphere. Stocks use P/E ratios as a gauge, but with so much balance sheet tomfoolery who knows about the P or E really. Put it this way; The DOW could be worth 20,000 or 2,000 at this point but there is no real way to tell! If markets hate "uncertainty" then all of the manipulated data and suspect reports must be really vexing.
Got a late start tonight, but I cannot skip out on Friday night entertainment!
Comic Picture
This is one tough kitty!
more cat pictures
Film Recommendation
An all time classic flick, "Three O'Clock High" is a sleeper not many have seen. I highly recommend it. Check out the book report scene. Skip to 3 minute mark and watch till end. Great stuff:
Rock Blogging
I love the woman from the band "Evanescence", her voice is both unique and powerful. The music rocks as well. Take a listen to "My Immortal":
The original "Planet Caravan" from Black Sabbath is a classic:
A little short on time, so that's all folks.
Have a good night.
