Monday, April 5, 2010

Quick Hits for Monday

A bit short on time after marking off the electrical lines to be linked to the generator. Hopefully the process will be complete tomorrow. Generac 10Kw should save me from staying at any more hotels when the power goes out.

The Difference Between the Technology Bubble and the Housing Bubble? Who Ended up the Bagholder
A key theme I have harped upon for a long time is that the technology bubble went bust and hardly anyone missed a beat. Certainly no heroic efforts were attempted by the FED to help anyone. Just low rates to encourage new speculation. The housing bubble bust has been fought on all fronts. What is the difference? The big banks had unloaded their dot bomb shares on other people were as now they themselves sit on all the losses, or the losses that do not currently reside at the FED, HA!

Jesse's Cafe of course writes this up in a way that makes me jealous, so I will just point you that way with a small excerpt:
Is the FED Likely to Act if There is Another Stock Market Bubble?
The 'collateral damage' caused by the dot.com and housing bubbles, all those ruined lives and families, is really not a problem and can be addressed by monetary policy (inflation) after the bubble runs its course. The problem in this last financial crisis is that the housing collapse caused a bank run, and the banks themselves were injured, instead of profiting, in the bubble collapse. Talk about an unintended consequence. Good God, not the Banks! This is a fast being remedied by the enormous subsidies granted by the Fed, and their man Timmy at the Treasury, to set the Banks back up again at the roulette tables, bringing home those eight figure paydays.
You should read the whole thing.

Oil Nearing $90; Good Thing the Economy has Recovered
Funny headline at Clusterstock:
Holy S&*# Oil!
I seem to remember quite a few banks loading up tankers with oil a while back, it was January of 2009:
Banks Cannot Let Go of the Gambling Mindset
Which was centered on this Bloomberg item:
Goldman Sees ‘Swift, Violent’ Oil Rally Later in Year
I wrote at the time:
The process of filling a supertanker with oil and planning on selling it later at a higher profit sounds great as long as those "higher prices" manifest themselves. Was it not the banks like Morgan Stanley and Citigroup that were so sure "higher prices" in real estate were such a sure thing? Good to see taxpayer funds going to work on a commodity bet. I am sure this will work out well.
Well it looks like a winner but it took a bit longer!

I would say higher fuel prices may not be the shock to the economy it once was; when no one has a job there is much less driving! How's this for a bumper sticker:
Unemployment: The New Green Revolution!

Bond Rates Moving Up
While some writers (Calculated....) were high fiving the day after the FED MBS program ended because rates did not move up in one hour, it seems as time goes on the slow rise is gaining steam (via Market Ticker):
10 Year Bond Breakout!
Most bulls see this as proof positive the economy is on fire so this remains bullish for now.

Of course you have to love the idea that the government tempted a large number of home buyers into the market at all time low rates, gave them $8-$10k towards a home purchase, and expanded FNM/FRE/FHA loans to any and all. Now, looking out maybe 1 year, higher mortgage rates will make those buyers instantly underwater! This would be funny if it was not so sad.

Metals Make the Mainstream
You things are getting interesting when metal market commentary makes sites like The Huffington Post:
It's Ponzimonium in the Gold Market
Writer Nathan Lewis (who wrote "Gold: the Once and Future Money (2007)" which I have read) discusses the paper market and how that market vastly exceeds the physical gold market. This story is a great recap of all the crazy developments in metals over the past few weeks, including a hit and run perpetrated on a whistle blower not 2 days after his report was published.

As for the metals, my favorite, things are looking good.

Silver closed above $18 an ounce today and that is very strong. When silver was around $15 in February I was chomping at the bit to get some. I did not do any trades via the regular vehicles (SLV, miners, etc) but I could not pass up a deal on some physical to add to the Economic Disconnect holdings. Near term silver is bumping resistance at $18-19. Any break over $20 could be a big one so I will be watching this space.

Gold has not been as exciting, and my target of $900-$950 for accumulation looks to be dead at this time. Gold has been solid and the $1200 an ounce mark looms as resistance.

Have a good night.

9 comments:

getyourselfconnected said...

Gompers asked me what I rubbed the ribs with from the last post. I had found a bunch of recipes for rubs, but I forgot to buy all the ingredients. I went with what I had on hand:
1 cup Brown Sugar
1.5 Tblsp kosher salt
1 Tblsp Cayenne Pepper
1 Tblsp Paprika
.5 Tblsp Garlic Powder
.5 Tblsp Onion Powder
.5 Tblsp Ground Rosemary

I think it was very good. I am with you Gompers, pork ribs are nice but BEEF RIBS are the king!

getyourselfconnected said...

Aside,
There may be some that would like to leave a comment here but feel a little shy for various reasons. I can say that the comments here are some of the best out there and everyone is helpful and fun to interact with. Feel free to sound off, half the time I am wrong so how much worse can things be?

getyourselfconnected said...

Added "No Excuses BBQ" to the blogroll; a great site with plenty of tips and the author takes time to answer questions.

Dave in Denver said...

GYC I love your CR rants. Those guys are completely arrogant and don't even realize how mediocre their analysis is.

Dave in Denver said...

P.S. those ribs look really really awesome! but who the hell eats carrots,celery and potatoes with ree-ibs? Where's the baked beans, french fries and coleslaw? LOL

getyourselfconnected said...

Dave,
I have to pretend I care about these things!

Yeah, any day now I fully expect CR to announce he will be working at a FED bank. The crap he has on the blogroll now is all lefty keyenisian easy money crap. What I do not get is no one else wants to take this on. Puzzling.

GawainsGhost said...

Well, since we're doing recipes, last night I made Gawain burgers and crispy golden fries. A Gawain burger is what a burger should be. I invented it. And the ingredients are very specific.

Extra-lean ground beef, formed into patties (1/4 to 1/2 lb, depending on how hungry you are), then smothered with Lee & Perrin's Worchestershire suace and spiced with Lawry's seasoning salt and lemon pepper. These are to be fried on a lightly oiled cast iron skillet over medium heat.

Earth Grains honey wheat berry bread, the best.
Grey Poupon country dijon mustard.
Kraft real mayonaise.
Del Monte sweet pickle relish.
Sliced yellow onion.
Sliced tomato.
Red-tipped leaf lettuce.
Sliced jalepenos.
Hormel Black Label thick-sliced bacon, cooked to a crispy crunch.
Shredded Kraft medium cheddar and Monterrey cheese.

Now, for the fries. The secret to making really good fries is to slice an unpeeled potato, then salt the slices. This has the effect of drawing water out of the potato by osmosis, which makes the fries crispy. For oil I use Wesson, but Crisco will do you right every time!

Pre-heat the oil is a large cast iron pan, then add the fries. Cook to a golden brown, then place on a paper towel and salt again.

Meanwhile, slap the burgers onto the skillet. Add more Worchestershire, seasoning salt and lemon pepper after flipping. Cover with shredded cheese and allow to melt.

Now, to build the burger you must remember that cheese and mustard go together. So cover one slice of bread with Grey Poupon. Add the jalepenos and bacon. The cooked burger will be placed on this slice with the cheese side down.

Cover the other slice of bread with mayonaise. Add the pickle relish, onion, tomato, and lettuce, in that order. Then place the place the burger slice on top with the meat side down.

Properly done this will result in burger that is thick, juicy, and viciously delicious. And fries that are wicked.

But be warned. Once you've had a Gawain burger with fries, you'll never go back. McDonald's, Burger King, Wendy's, they got nothing on me.

S. Gompers said...

Thanks GYC, I think I will like the Gawains burger as well...

It has all my favorite vegetables, and bacon is my favorite vegetable, besides beer.

getyourselfconnected said...

Gawains,
sounds a bit involved for my limited skills, but I think i could give it a shot.

Gompers,
Weird that your favorite veggies match my own!