Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Tuesday Notes

Terrible traffic day on the commute home and I also had to settle up with the landscaper for my totally new front lawn which means I am out of time for a full post tonight. Just a few notes.

The Automatic Earth
If you are not stopping by The Automatic Earth, well you should be. Thoughtful essays that help me think about the macro picture are a daily read for me. You can check out tonight's missive here.

A Very Special Thanks to Gold and Silver
The general though line was that a stronger stock market and an overall sense of relief that the world was not going to end would contribute to a fall in the price of gold and silver. The summer seasonality weakness of the metals also factored into a call for some weakness. I had written that I was getting set for a large entry point if/when gold hit the $800 mark and silver at $9. Some chart types I like seemed to see the same thing in their fancy graph work, so I set up my entry points.

Well, I would like to send out a special thanks to gold and silver which have quietly had a great run over the past two weeks culminating in a nice move up today. My entry points seem miles lower in price away! I was really hoping to "load the boat" at lower levels.

In this market you can never be too sure of anything, and a move lower may still happen, but for now I will have to reset my targets and scope out some miners as well. I will let you know when I have decided on a position so you can go short those picks and make a bundle as I always crash the metals markets!

What is the world coming to? Even Tim Knight likes gold now!?

If gold is used a market fear buy, as many still believe, then you must think the stock rally is completely fake. Otherwise if the rally is based on "solid fundamentals" the idea that gold is simply a store during uncertainty fails the intellectual honesty test.

Congratulations, You are the Proud Backstop for the Municipal Bond Market!
A breaking story that we all knew was going to happen is the Bill getting set for a vote which will guarantee ALL municipal bonds and muni insurance. Clusterstock has the particulars, but suffice to say this will be another kick in the face down the road for taxpayers. Think California, Nevada, and Florida and you will get what I mean.

Star Trek Thoughtful Essay
Loyal reader Gawainsghost left an extremely perceptive and well reasoned essay regarding Star Trek in the comments section last night. While I am still more attached to Star Wars (the expanded Universe and all the novels add so much depth to the story lines beyond the 6 films) Gawains words made me see Star Trek in a whole different way.

I had no idea the episode "The City on the Edge of Forever" was written by Harlan Ellison who is also a favorite sci fi writer of mine! I do remember that Star Trek episode and it was the best one I have seen. Gawains comment serves as an example of what kind of interaction a good readership community can have.

Have a good night.


Anonymous said...

JEKYLL ISLAND, Georgia (Reuters) - A sharp critic of the Federal Reserve and prominent authority on monetary policy on Tuesday slammed the U.S. central bank for risking inflation and warned that government action had "caused, prolonged and worsened" the country's financial crisis.

John Taylor, a former undersecretary of the Treasury for international affairs and author of the widely cited Taylor Rule of central banking, ran his own numbers for the U.S. economy and said the Fed's monetary stance was way too loose.

"My calculation implies that we may not have as much time before the Fed has to remove excess reserves and raise the rate," he said in remarks prepared for a financial markets conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

"We don't know what will happen in the future, but there is a risk here and it is a systemic risk," he said.

"While Federal Reserve officials say that they will be able to sell newly acquired assets at a sufficient rate to prevent these reserves from igniting inflation, they or their successors may face political difficulties in doing so.

"That raises doubts and therefore risks. The risk is systemic because of the economy-wide harm such an outcome would cause," Taylor said

Bank on the political risk, hyperinflation Argentina death dance baby.

Anonymous said...

SINGAPORE, May 13 (Reuters) - The United States is at risk of losing its triple-A credit rating unless it starts putting its finances in order, a former head of the agency in charge of fiscal accountability said in the Financial Times on Wednesday.

David Walker, former director of the Government Accountability Office, cited a warning from Moody's Investors Service nearly two years ago about ballooning healthcare and social security costs.

"Signs are abound that we are in even worse shape now, and that confidence in America's ability to gain control of its finances is eroding," the former comptroller general and current chief executive of Peter G. Peterson Foundation, wrote to the FT.

His comments helped push the dollar index .DXY to a four-month low as investors refocused attention on rising U.S. debt issuance, traders said.

This won't be a country for old men.


Ilargi said...

And you think you know what's next