Friday, April 24, 2009

Station Break Until May 2nd

A little market based observation, then I am calling it a week and getting into vacation mode.

Running of the Bulls
All I need to know about the market is summed up by the American Express news today. Loss estimates upped to north of 10% and a debt downgrade led naturally to a 20% run UP in the stock. Either AXP was priced for bankruptcy 20% ago or, well I have no real "or" on that one.

The Treasury was out in force calming the masses about the governments full pledge to bailout anything and everything come hell or high water. At least they are consistent on that message.

The president has yet another press conference scheduled for prime time next week. 100 days in office, 300 TV appearances. Somebody should tell him that words are more effective when they are used sparingly, not as background noise.

This indefatigable (I like that word) rally is starting to reach a critical mass where I think the markets can continue to rally, perhaps quite hard, but the indices are failing the laugh test. Everyone knows stocks are way out of control, but nobody wants to get steamrolled either.

My final take as I head off for the next 7 days: Sometimes you have to let children make mistakes so that they learn. While they may never really learn, you still have to try. Chasing up stocks in the teeth of the mortgage foreclosure wave and commercial real estate bust will end in pain, but there is no fun in staying in cash for some players.

The blogroll on the left, while it could never replace Economic Disconnect, should suffice for the week!

The wife and I are very fond of the Bahamas. We were married there. While I have not travelled extensively, my favorite is the Bahamas.

People ask me "what are you going to do, what are you going to see on vacation"? The answer is simple: pretty much nothing. I am not one of those types that go on vacation and go crazy doing all manners of things. I am going to settle in at the beach or pool, make numerous stops at the bar, nap a lot, and then go out at night and make numerous stops at the bar. I will try to play some poker at the casino, but No Limit poker with drunk tourists is like the stock market right now: You know how to torch the dumb players, but the cards are not falling your way.

I did find a coin shop in Nassau called Coin of the Realm in which I hope to find some cool stuff.

I do not bring a laptop, and I will not access any computer. I will get a Miami based newspaper every day, but thats it. Basic shut off which kind of stinks because the NFL draft is this weekend as is the NASCAR race at Talladega. Well, maybe I will sneak a quick peek to check on those!

Friday Night Entertainment
A little fun to to end the week.

Film Clip
As I have yet to really grow up, I cannot wait for the Transformers II fim to come out this summer. Check out a clip from the first film where A-10 Warthogs and an AC-130 Gunship go all out against a robotic scorpion:


Rock Blogging
Music and lyrics to start your weekend off.

As I will certainly be changing my latitude to a more southernly vector, listen to Jimmy Buffet and "Changes in Latitude" by request:

One of my favorite albums is "Jar of Flies" from the tragic band Alice in Chains. In a song you would not expect from them, take a listen to "Don't Follow":

One of Ozzy's least liked albums was "Bark at the Moon". I never understood why as there are several quality tunes on the record. One of my favorites is "Waiting for Darkness" with lyrics like "I know what they'll find, It's in their mind, It's what they want to see":

Somebody posted a song from a local band I really like called "Must". The song is called "Freechild" and I have no idea what it is about but the vocals are amazing as is the movement of the song:

I have no idea why, but I have always liked David Bowie. No, not like that! Take a listen to "Let's Dance": and see if I am crazy:

Last one for tonight!
While I usually hate remakes, some stand out as pretty good. Think Jimi Hendrix taking over "All Along the Watchtower" from Bob Dylan. The band "Ugly Kid Joe" redid the classic "Cats in the Cradle" and it was not half bad:

Take care all, I will return!

Have a good night.


getyourselfconnected said...

No Lisa I was not lost in a suitcase, I was just taking my time putting together tonights blog! Enjoy all! I will be checking in tonight a bit, so hard to say goodbye.

Lisa said...

LOL, I would have been! Thanks for the post tonight, you are the best! I hope you and your sweetheart have a relaxing, fun vacation. You will be missed :)

getyourselfconnected said...

If gawains checks in, great article!
Bets title ever:
"Welcome to America, the World's Scariest Emerging Market"

Get on the boat, the banana republic boat!

Lisa and all, let me know what you thought of the "Freechild" and "Waiting for Darkness" songs as I would like to hear opinions.

getyourselfconnected said...

just checked Calculated Risk and the parade of bank failures is getting pretty scary!

watchtower said...

Hope you and your wife have an enjoyable vacation.
Take care.

getyourselfconnected said...

Thanks Watchtower! You be careful in this market.

Lisa said...

I thought Freechild was pretty good, interesting sound, but they don't blow me away :)
I'm not an Ozzy fan, but listened to this one anyway. Surprisingly, I really enjoyed it! Of course, I couldn't help but think of Paulson, Geithner, et. al., while listening to those lyrics. Very "market appropriate."
"Don't Follow" was also very good! You pick really great music, GYSC, things I've never heard or wouldn't normally listen to, so it's always a real pleasure to see what you come up with.

getyourselfconnected said...

Thanks so much for the kind words. You are whats best in all of us. A true Partriot!
I will check in one last time in a bit, so get your comments in!

GawainsGhost said...

I'm checking in, a little late but you know the old saying.

Glad you liked the Washington Post article. It was published about the same time as the Atlantic article on the same subject, which is that the financial oligarchy really must be reined in if we are to survive as a republic. Otherwise, we'll all just go bananas.

Whenever two independent and unconnected observers come to the same conclusion, you know there's something there. So I'm expecting this line of thought to gain traction over the coming months.

Anyway, as to the music, I thought "Freechild" was pretty good. It's local bands like that which produce the only real music, not the fabricated, production-based bands that make it big. I really don't find much in the music industry I like these days. Most of it is just garbage.

I confess that I have always like David Bowie too. For my money, The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars ranks as one of the great albums of all time. And Young Americans is, in a word, brilliant.

But as to Ozzy, gotta love him. He's the most unlikely frontman for a band you'll ever see, but he's one of the biggest stars in the world. I thought his first two solo albums after he left Black Sabbath were incredible, mainly because Randy Rhodes was a phenomenal guitar player. (Ozzy has a knack for hooking up with those.)

The thing about Ozzy is that he's like the stuttering cowboy Mel Tillis. The guy can't speak but he sure as hell can sing.

I've seen Ozzy perform with Black Sabbath three times, on the Never Say Die tour, the Reunion tour, and their last tour. The first one was at the Hemisphere Arena in San Antonio in 1978. At that time, San Antonio was the heavy metal capital of the world, and if you wanted to make it as a heavy metal band, you had to prove yourself there.

This was after Ozzy had already left the band, shortly after Sabotage. But he rejoined Black Sabbath after a while, and they came out with Never Say Die, which is one of the more jazzy Sabbath albums. So we all sort of knew this was going to be the last Black Sabbath tour for a long time, if not forever. Every metal head in the state of Texas showed up for this concert, and to this day it had the highest attendance of any concert ever held at the Hemisphere Arena, even more than Elvis (whom I had seen in the same venue six years earlier). Something like 18,000 in a 15,000-seat arena. They sold every seat, then they sold standing room in the ailses. It was packed.

Van Halen opened, and to be honest totally sucked. They put on the worst performance of any band I've ever seen, and got booed off the stage. Really. Then Black Sabbath came out, and the whole place went insane. But about 20 minutes into their set, Iommi's amp blew out. Ozzy walked up to the microphone and said, "Disco sucks!" (This was the first time anyone had ever said that, and in two weeks it was on t-shirts everywhere). Then he said that Bill Ward was going to perform a drum solo while the amp was being fixed.

Bill Ward performed the most amazing drum solo and was later joined by Geezer Butler for some incredible bass-drum improv; this lasted about 45 minutes.

Now, here is the scene. Van Halen had been showing up Black Sabbath at earlier concerts and were getting all the positive press. But they had totally embarrassed themselves in front of the most discriminating audience on the planet. Black Sabbath had experienced some technical difficulties, and now they had something to prove. Once Iommi's amp was fixed, they came out and played the heaviest, hardest set imaginable. They basically started over, because they had something to prove and they proved it, for almost two hours. They played all their great songs to perfection.

That was the best concert I've ever seen. Better than Elvis, better than the Stones, better than Kiss, better than anybody. Which is why I say, Black Sabbath rules.

I realize you won't read this until you get back, GYC. But I hope you enjoy your vacation. Relax, take it easy, get away from it all. Then come back rejuvenated.

We'll see you on the flip side.

Anonymous said...

Mexico flu: Your experiences

I am a doctor and I work in the State of Mexico. I don't work in the shock team; I am in the echocardiography team, but I do get some news from my colleagues in the hospital. There have been some cases of young people dying from respiratory infections, but this happened before the alert and they were not reported because the necessary tests weren't done. We doctors knew this was happening a week before the alert was issued and were told to get vaccinated. I went to buy some anti-virals for my husband, who is also a doctor, because he had contact with a young patient who presented influenza symptoms and died. I don't think pharmacies stock enough anti-virals.

Messing with drug lords probably wasn't a great idea. Maybe, Hum?


Anonymous said...

President Barack Obama said the emergence and spread of swine flu in the U.S. merits heightened concern “but it’s not a cause for alarm,”

Translation: Run like hell.


Lisa said...

Tomorrow is Friday, and there will be no Rock blog. I am sad :( Hope you're having a great time, GYSC!

Anonymous said...

NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - A weekly measure of U.S. future
economic growth rose along with its annualized growth rate,
indicating imminent economic recovery, a research group said on
Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based
independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index
ticked up to a 13-week high of 107.7 for the week ending April
24 from 107.2 in the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate also climbed to minus
17.4 percent from the prior week's rate of minus 18.6 percent. "With the level of the WLI in an upswing for seven weeks
now, an end to the U.S. recession is now in clear sight," said
Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

Maybe this little banana republic has one more bubble left in it before the whole thing collapses under the weight of debt.


Anonymous said...

U.S. watchdogs want bar raised in failed bank reviews

So many U.S. banks are failing that three government bank watchdogs want the law changed to force a review only when a bank failure costs the federal insurance fund $300 million or more.

Sounds like an open ticket to non stop fraud just as one would expect in a banana republic.


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