You all are going to love this. My new fall project at work is to be trained on, coordinate installation, and be in charge of......a huge robotic system! You cannot make this stuff up. How will I cope? I feel I am betraying my own kind. Going to be a long Autumn.
On the Shelf
August will be gone and I don't think any market players are going to miss it much. It's been a wild mess, and plenty of hits taken and given.
There was more FED hints today, more volatility, more confusion. More of the same.
While I have not placed a trade since the beginning of the month (two losers YMG and OCZ) I had planned to try GME and NI this week. Both would have been ok winners, but various things kept me out of the market. The most important one was that I felt I would really have to keep an eye on any position very close, and that is not always possible with a real job. As is, August likely would have carved me up anyway so maybe it was for the best.
Some important economic numbers are set for tomorrow and Friday (ISM and Jobs number) and then it is the long weekend. Been on the shelf for August, why not a couple days in September too?
Vote for Best Sci-Fi TV Theme Song
Go and vote at io9 tonight:
Vote for the greatest science fiction theme song of all time
I had to go Knight Rider!
Hayabusa Project a Wild Success
Japan launched a space probe in 2003 that was tasked with returning a sample to earth of an asteroid. The return capsule landed in June and information is now just coming out. Very exciting project, read about it here:
Hayabusa
Have a good night.
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
More Than Two Shakes and You are Playing with It
Just swamped at work as of late. Just have not been able to get the time to do much else during the day. I am going to need this long weekend for sure.
More Than Two Shakes and You are Playing with It
We have gone from headlines on Friday screaming "FED signals no more QE" to having it all but guaranteed by today. That was fast.
One of the three dissenters on the last FED meeting was Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota. Not anymore via Zero Hedge:
Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota Down, Two Dissenters To Go Until QE3
On CNBC today FED member Charles Evans was even more upfront about what he thinks the FED needs to do:
Fed’s Evans backs more easing
So QE1 sort of worked, QE2 was a total failure so I guess going to the well again makes sense right? My dad always said "More than two shakes and you are playing with it". The FED seems intent of playing with their monetary tools again.
Looking around, it is not like the commodity complex has been crushed price wise. What are you paying for gas? Still high right? It's will go higher. Food prices are still elevated as well. This is not the same environment as last summer when everything had been poleaxed.
I am against anymore FED intervention but it's coming anyway. Last post I went over why I thought long trades were safer and why. The run up to the September FED meeting should provide a lift, but the S&P is already withing 40 points of the 1250-1260 area. Headwinds after the month of August will come in the form of bad data on many fronts. What will prove more important going forward? New easing or a crumbling macro picture?
Last year after QE2 the hope that things would get better held firm and even though its took many months for economic numbers to improve, most were willing to wait. After the fizzle of QE2, will they wait again? Biggest question going forward here is what the half life of QE3 is going to be.
Have a good night.
More Than Two Shakes and You are Playing with It
We have gone from headlines on Friday screaming "FED signals no more QE" to having it all but guaranteed by today. That was fast.
One of the three dissenters on the last FED meeting was Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota. Not anymore via Zero Hedge:
Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota Down, Two Dissenters To Go Until QE3
On CNBC today FED member Charles Evans was even more upfront about what he thinks the FED needs to do:
Fed’s Evans backs more easing
So QE1 sort of worked, QE2 was a total failure so I guess going to the well again makes sense right? My dad always said "More than two shakes and you are playing with it". The FED seems intent of playing with their monetary tools again.
Looking around, it is not like the commodity complex has been crushed price wise. What are you paying for gas? Still high right? It's will go higher. Food prices are still elevated as well. This is not the same environment as last summer when everything had been poleaxed.
I am against anymore FED intervention but it's coming anyway. Last post I went over why I thought long trades were safer and why. The run up to the September FED meeting should provide a lift, but the S&P is already withing 40 points of the 1250-1260 area. Headwinds after the month of August will come in the form of bad data on many fronts. What will prove more important going forward? New easing or a crumbling macro picture?
Last year after QE2 the hope that things would get better held firm and even though its took many months for economic numbers to improve, most were willing to wait. After the fizzle of QE2, will they wait again? Biggest question going forward here is what the half life of QE3 is going to be.
Have a good night.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Running Room
I am probably taking Friday off to De-Hurricane my yard. Total mess. At least the Comcast cable is back on though.
Running Room
You may or not know but it was a true FACE-RIPPER rally today. Last night I was thinking all the ingredients where in place; low volume this week due to power outages and the coming vacation weekend, a market that has been sold very hard for some time, and a new short interest high for the NYSE. Perfect set up for a real squeeze higher.
Here is my clumsy graph for the S&P 500 after today (click for larger):
Please note:
-I have been stressing a close OVER 1180 would get me more interested in the market as a buy
-1200 is another important level
-Market is above both now
The volume today was about as bad as it gets, but you cannot have everything. If trading was easy we would all be rich. And bored.
So is it all honey and sugar from here on? Do markets crash again? How would I know, I just work here!
Seriously, what I think we have now is the best long trade environment in some time. What makes it so good? The trades are backed by some key levels and the exits are clear as can be. All the "bottoms" and all the "important candles" of the last month or so never had everything working for them. Now they do.
I have been on the sidelines for a while because the market did not support my trading style. I cannot be on top of things all day long, I have to work. With a bit of support now and clear areas that signal trouble, stop losses might even be in place again! Amazing! For weeks if you were playing a spot a stop loss or cover was sure to get you executed during the wild swings that have been happening. Consider that if the general market can trend to the marked area of S&P 500 1250-1260, or even if it starts to roll over again:
-There is support at 1200 now
-Cut all trades at 1180, no wishful holding
Simplified trading. No emotion, just numbers. Like chips in poker.
I would point you to my "Go To" guy for these things, Mr. ChessNwine. Back on August 17th I noted a great post by Chess which set out the following scenario going forward:
That's messed up! That's why you need to read this guy. Thanks Chess.
To sum up, this is a supportive environment right now for long trades. The best in a while. Discipline on the last few drops really broke down, but now is a good time to make some moves but be ready to stick to your targets. Both to the upside AND downside.
I am so behind, and would like to do some screening tonight so that is all.
Added: Not all! Check out the only thing worth seeing from last night's MTV's VMA award show. Adele with "Someone Like You":
Wow!
Have a good night.
Running Room
You may or not know but it was a true FACE-RIPPER rally today. Last night I was thinking all the ingredients where in place; low volume this week due to power outages and the coming vacation weekend, a market that has been sold very hard for some time, and a new short interest high for the NYSE. Perfect set up for a real squeeze higher.
Here is my clumsy graph for the S&P 500 after today (click for larger):
-I have been stressing a close OVER 1180 would get me more interested in the market as a buy
-1200 is another important level
-Market is above both now
The volume today was about as bad as it gets, but you cannot have everything. If trading was easy we would all be rich. And bored.
So is it all honey and sugar from here on? Do markets crash again? How would I know, I just work here!
Seriously, what I think we have now is the best long trade environment in some time. What makes it so good? The trades are backed by some key levels and the exits are clear as can be. All the "bottoms" and all the "important candles" of the last month or so never had everything working for them. Now they do.
I have been on the sidelines for a while because the market did not support my trading style. I cannot be on top of things all day long, I have to work. With a bit of support now and clear areas that signal trouble, stop losses might even be in place again! Amazing! For weeks if you were playing a spot a stop loss or cover was sure to get you executed during the wild swings that have been happening. Consider that if the general market can trend to the marked area of S&P 500 1250-1260, or even if it starts to roll over again:
-There is support at 1200 now
-Cut all trades at 1180, no wishful holding
Simplified trading. No emotion, just numbers. Like chips in poker.
I would point you to my "Go To" guy for these things, Mr. ChessNwine. Back on August 17th I noted a great post by Chess which set out the following scenario going forward:
"..one scenario that I am seriously considering is that we actually start to roll over for a few days and see shorts scramble into those bear flags proving true. At that point, we make a higher low on the S&P and then stabilize and turn higher. Since the market will usually do that which frustrates the majority, I think this scenario will frustrate those who have committed substantial capital looking for a market bottom as well as those bears looking for confirmation of bear flags in order to short. Here is what it would look like.."I did not include the chart, but now I have secured permission, here it is:
To sum up, this is a supportive environment right now for long trades. The best in a while. Discipline on the last few drops really broke down, but now is a good time to make some moves but be ready to stick to your targets. Both to the upside AND downside.
I am so behind, and would like to do some screening tonight so that is all.
Added: Not all! Check out the only thing worth seeing from last night's MTV's VMA award show. Adele with "Someone Like You":
Wow!
Have a good night.
Sunday, August 28, 2011
Disconnected
All is well here. The storm really weakened, so no real damage here except the yards are a mess of broken branches and junk.
I still have power but no cable. Hence I am writing this post on my phone. It's annoying to do. I will post tomorrow if the cable is back up.
Have a good night.
I still have power but no cable. Hence I am writing this post on my phone. It's annoying to do. I will post tomorrow if the cable is back up.
Have a good night.
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Bristol at Night
Tonight is my favorite NASCAR race of them all, the night race at Bristol Motor Speedway:
The track is just a half-mile, but the extreme banking in the corners (now 28 degrees after resurfacing) allows the cars to carry a huge amount of speed around the track. The G-forces holds the cars down. It's wild! Add to that tempers flare at the rough track and it's a mix for some great action.
The late Dale Earnhardt got into a few scrapes with Terry Labonte here over the years. In 1995 (skip to 5:00 mark):
and again in 1999 (skip to 1:40 mark):
Wow.
Even if you hate NASCAR, you may want to check tonight out, I think it will be worth it.
Have a good night.
The track is just a half-mile, but the extreme banking in the corners (now 28 degrees after resurfacing) allows the cars to carry a huge amount of speed around the track. The G-forces holds the cars down. It's wild! Add to that tempers flare at the rough track and it's a mix for some great action.
The late Dale Earnhardt got into a few scrapes with Terry Labonte here over the years. In 1995 (skip to 5:00 mark):
and again in 1999 (skip to 1:40 mark):
Wow.
Even if you hate NASCAR, you may want to check tonight out, I think it will be worth it.
Have a good night.
Friday, August 26, 2011
Tropical Storm Friday
Confusing stuff here. Weather guy on one channel at noon said high winds and 2-3 inches of rain. Weather guy on usual channel tonight says sustained high winds and 8-10 inches of rain!!?? So close, so far away. In any case it's going to be a real mess here Sunday.
Spare some Time for Claudia
Some people hate James Altucher and I think I know why. He challenges conventional thinking. He puts you in a state of unease with your long held beliefs. He also makes you think. I like him. A lot. James has written that his beloved wife Claudia has been diagnosed with Lyme disease so I would ask the readers to stop by and send some good feelings to Claudia and James:
Claudia Has Lyme Disease
Jackson Hole Post Mortem
It's Friday so I don't want to spend too much time on this. Bernanke had nothing to go with today, but used cryptic language about extending the September FED meeting to two days. The wording was "to fully explore all tools" or some stuff. Take home point:
QE3 of some sort WILL be announced at the September meeting.
Markets dropped at first on the release but then the magic words were found and a huge move ensued.
I will recap strategy going forward on Sunday (weather permitting), but it's safe to say the preternatural bid behind stocks will now return and there is going to be a huge run up before the September meeting. Bad data will only make things go higher as QE 3 is a done deal. Amazing stuff. Disgusting and sad, but amazing.
Friday Night Entertainment
Need a break after this week? You have come to the right place!
Apple is Worth More Than....
My man Joshua Brown thought up this great idea to discuss just how massive the Apple company truly is. With a market cap around 350 Billion dollars (wow!) you may be shocked to see just how much that is in comparison to other things.
What is super-duper exciting and very humbling is that Josh has allowed me administrative access to the site so I get to post ideas for the page! So awesome!! Please stop on over and take a look at the work so far:
Apple is Worth More Than....
Fortune Magazine's blog has already featured the site!! It's hard for me to explain how cool this is for me:
Apple is now worth more than ... the Great Wall of China
Let me know in the comments if you have a good one! Full credit will be given. Thanks Josh.
Pictures
Fun for the eyes.
So this is how unicorns where made?:
see more WTF Pictures and WTF videos by Picture Is Unrelated
And I thought it was magic!
I have NO idea:
see more Lolcats and funny pictures, and check out our Socially Awkward Penguin lolz!
Film Clips
Scouring the files of my mind to bring you quality things to see.
An under rated film is "Midnight Run". Great actors, great pace, the film is wonderful. Check out this scene as the cash strapped duo pose as the FBI and steal cash:
The litmus configuration?
Found this really nice tribute video for "Gladiator" on YouTube. Check it out:
Not bad.
Rock Blogging
Hit the dial to 11, it's louder!
Reader Sovereign Bohemian was looking for some old Eagles tunes. What's smoother than "Tequila Sunrise"?:
Love that one.
Heard this one on the radio today, good stuff! A-Ha with "Take on Me":
Ok, I know I repeat but I love this song:
We need some Crue! "Kickstart My Heart":
GO!
Two songs left. Let's close the show.
For hurricane Irene lets hope people remember Irene Cara! "What a Feeling":
Nice.
Last call! Grab a girl, a drink, and some lighter fluid.
Going with Golden Earring and "Radar Love":
Have a good night.
Spare some Time for Claudia
Some people hate James Altucher and I think I know why. He challenges conventional thinking. He puts you in a state of unease with your long held beliefs. He also makes you think. I like him. A lot. James has written that his beloved wife Claudia has been diagnosed with Lyme disease so I would ask the readers to stop by and send some good feelings to Claudia and James:
Claudia Has Lyme Disease
Jackson Hole Post Mortem
It's Friday so I don't want to spend too much time on this. Bernanke had nothing to go with today, but used cryptic language about extending the September FED meeting to two days. The wording was "to fully explore all tools" or some stuff. Take home point:
QE3 of some sort WILL be announced at the September meeting.
Markets dropped at first on the release but then the magic words were found and a huge move ensued.
I will recap strategy going forward on Sunday (weather permitting), but it's safe to say the preternatural bid behind stocks will now return and there is going to be a huge run up before the September meeting. Bad data will only make things go higher as QE 3 is a done deal. Amazing stuff. Disgusting and sad, but amazing.
Friday Night Entertainment
Need a break after this week? You have come to the right place!
Apple is Worth More Than....
My man Joshua Brown thought up this great idea to discuss just how massive the Apple company truly is. With a market cap around 350 Billion dollars (wow!) you may be shocked to see just how much that is in comparison to other things.
What is super-duper exciting and very humbling is that Josh has allowed me administrative access to the site so I get to post ideas for the page! So awesome!! Please stop on over and take a look at the work so far:
Apple is Worth More Than....
Fortune Magazine's blog has already featured the site!! It's hard for me to explain how cool this is for me:
Apple is now worth more than ... the Great Wall of China
Let me know in the comments if you have a good one! Full credit will be given. Thanks Josh.
Pictures
Fun for the eyes.
So this is how unicorns where made?:
see more WTF Pictures and WTF videos by Picture Is Unrelated
And I thought it was magic!
I have NO idea:
see more Lolcats and funny pictures, and check out our Socially Awkward Penguin lolz!
Film Clips
Scouring the files of my mind to bring you quality things to see.
An under rated film is "Midnight Run". Great actors, great pace, the film is wonderful. Check out this scene as the cash strapped duo pose as the FBI and steal cash:
The litmus configuration?
Found this really nice tribute video for "Gladiator" on YouTube. Check it out:
Not bad.
Rock Blogging
Hit the dial to 11, it's louder!
Reader Sovereign Bohemian was looking for some old Eagles tunes. What's smoother than "Tequila Sunrise"?:
Love that one.
Heard this one on the radio today, good stuff! A-Ha with "Take on Me":
Ok, I know I repeat but I love this song:
We need some Crue! "Kickstart My Heart":
GO!
Two songs left. Let's close the show.
For hurricane Irene lets hope people remember Irene Cara! "What a Feeling":
Nice.
Last call! Grab a girl, a drink, and some lighter fluid.
Going with Golden Earring and "Radar Love":
Have a good night.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
The Black Hole in Wyoming
The news is really playing up the hurricane coming this way. I am all set though; 10kw Generac generator run on an underground natural gas line; enough SPAM, rice, and bottled water to last a month, and a sense of humor. Seriously, this is not going to be that bad.
The Black Hole in Wyoming
So tomorrow is the day. Ben Bernanke gives his Jackson Hole speech on FED policy. It's the event of the summer and you are all invited. Dress nice folks, this is the big time!
Title of this post was inspired by that atrocious sci-fi movie long ago, "The Black Hole":
Yes it had robots of course:
Who remembers this film?
Emotions are high and guesses run all over the place. My ideas on what will happen, and their chances are:
1.) Full blown QE 3 for 1 Trillion announced (will begin in October). Markets go full lift off and it will be weeks until anyone looks back. Bernanke is the hamburglar stealing any chance you have at saving anything.
chance: 25%
2.) Bernanke uses soft words to say that QE will come, but not right this second as he downgrades economy. Markets protest for Friday, but solid uptrend starts next week.
chance: 60%
3.) Bernanke says FED will be on watch, but that the US CONgress should get involved in stimulus and not rely on just the FED. Markets close for Friday afternoon.
chance: 15%
Of course it will be some kind of blend of 1 and 2 most likely.
Even after a year of all the green shoots and being welcomed to the recovery, markets need help and another housing hand out is on the way, from Trader Mark:
White House Considering Plan for Country Wide Refinance of Government Backed Mortgages
It's never going to end. It's not. Stop pretending it will.
Freedom Rock
Classic commercial time:
Have a good night.
The Black Hole in Wyoming
So tomorrow is the day. Ben Bernanke gives his Jackson Hole speech on FED policy. It's the event of the summer and you are all invited. Dress nice folks, this is the big time!
Title of this post was inspired by that atrocious sci-fi movie long ago, "The Black Hole":
Emotions are high and guesses run all over the place. My ideas on what will happen, and their chances are:
1.) Full blown QE 3 for 1 Trillion announced (will begin in October). Markets go full lift off and it will be weeks until anyone looks back. Bernanke is the hamburglar stealing any chance you have at saving anything.
chance: 25%
2.) Bernanke uses soft words to say that QE will come, but not right this second as he downgrades economy. Markets protest for Friday, but solid uptrend starts next week.
chance: 60%
3.) Bernanke says FED will be on watch, but that the US CONgress should get involved in stimulus and not rely on just the FED. Markets close for Friday afternoon.
chance: 15%
Of course it will be some kind of blend of 1 and 2 most likely.
Even after a year of all the green shoots and being welcomed to the recovery, markets need help and another housing hand out is on the way, from Trader Mark:
White House Considering Plan for Country Wide Refinance of Government Backed Mortgages
It's never going to end. It's not. Stop pretending it will.
Freedom Rock
Classic commercial time:
Have a good night.
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