Tuesday was an interesting day to say the least!
Media Coverage of Things Apple is Worth More Than
I got a note this morning from Josh Brown telling me that CNBC was looking to do a segment on the Tumblr we co-author, Things Apple is Worth More Than. Now maybe you all out there are extreme pros but I was as excited as I could be. The clip was aired at 2:15 today and here it is for review:
It's a little strange to see things you have worked on shown on television. Josh highlighted the segment today as well (Apple-Zilla!) and in the clip he makes some good points on why it is useful to keep in mind how big Apple is. Apple is probably the most innovative and successful company in the history of the world, and the Apple Tumblr tries to put that success in a perspective that will boggle the mind.
Thank you Josh for the great opportunity.
Buying When It's "Wrong"
You know it has happened to you. Something happens and it's wrong. It feels wrong and you know it's wrong. Still, no harm has been done and in a cosmic sense of things it's right.
Maybe one of those rare times the cashier rings you up, takes your cash to make change and BOOM, you get an extra buck or more back. It's wrong, sure it is. But how many times have you over paid? How many times have you lost change in the sofa? Maybe it is a small measure of payback. Perhaps on a food run you leave the drive through window and discover you got an extra order of fries (cool) or an extra Big Mac (Epic WIN!) in your sack of food. That too is wrong, but again how many short changed orders have you had to endure over time? Both are wrong, but you deal with it.
I bring this up because the current market rally has felt all "wrong" since the beginning in December. The laundry list is long and distinguished and most participants are well aware of the major concerns. As of late we have to throw in market indices that are running into uncharted territory. It all feels so wrong.
Yet the market goes up and individual stocks continue to perform well.
Since December 20, 2011 the SPX has moved higher by more than 10% and the whole way most or all of the following has been true:
-Greece continues towards some kind of default
-Euro nation debt is still a monster problem
-Earnings have been on the lower end of estimates
-Bonds are screaming a large disconnect from equities
-China is unclear
-Volume has been very low
-As of late the major indices are higher than anytime since 2008, before the financial crisis
All this and more.
Yet stocks are moving. Individual set ups are numerous and finally are showing follow through. Rotation and pauses have been enough to keep things from overheating. It's almost sinister in the way things have been going. And it feels wrong.
But you have to deal with it. As long as I am finding set ups that are working I am going to be trading long even though it feels wrong. At some point the law of large numbers, buyer exhaustion, or some other factor is going to put the brakes on this market. At that point, feeling "wrong" about buying stocks will be felt in kind. Until then, take the extra buck or Big Mac and enjoy the gift. While it lasts.
Have a good night.
Tuesday, February 28, 2012
Monday, February 27, 2012
Buy Charts and a Look at Some Utilities
The Daytona 500 was rained out yesterday and is being run tonight. Clearly I will be a bit distracted so just a quick post that is chart heavy for tonight.
Market Operations
This morning's sell off just did not feel like it was going to stick and pretty soon after the open buyers stepped in. After things settled in this morning I opened up 3 new long positions.
WFM (Whole Foods Market)
I usually don't enter into names I see all over Twitter and other places, but the long term 2006 top for WFM is too interesting a spot not to try out here. Click any chart for larger view.:
CTCT (Constant Contact, Inc.)
I saw this one over in the 12631 trading room as worked up by ChessNwine. Tight basing after a breakout over $30, has some room to run higher:
CACI (CACI International Inc.)
I found this idea on a PPT screen. Great buyer interest and stock has moved past the $60 level here:
I still hold BANR but it's putting me to sleep and will cut soon if the stock fails to move.
A mix of names for this week.
When I was doing my screens I noticed a large number of utility stocks making up the accumulation list. Some of these names are seeing buying numbers that are even larger than during the height of the summer doldrums. A couple I found:
NEE
D
There were about 4-5 other names that looked the same in the same sector. This screen tends to show accumulation before price moves. Why are "safe" plays like utilities being bought more aggressive than any time since the summer? I am not sure, but it's worth watching the rest of the week.
Have a good night.
Market Operations
This morning's sell off just did not feel like it was going to stick and pretty soon after the open buyers stepped in. After things settled in this morning I opened up 3 new long positions.
WFM (Whole Foods Market)
I usually don't enter into names I see all over Twitter and other places, but the long term 2006 top for WFM is too interesting a spot not to try out here. Click any chart for larger view.:
CTCT (Constant Contact, Inc.)
I saw this one over in the 12631 trading room as worked up by ChessNwine. Tight basing after a breakout over $30, has some room to run higher:
CACI (CACI International Inc.)
I found this idea on a PPT screen. Great buyer interest and stock has moved past the $60 level here:
A mix of names for this week.
When I was doing my screens I noticed a large number of utility stocks making up the accumulation list. Some of these names are seeing buying numbers that are even larger than during the height of the summer doldrums. A couple I found:
NEE
D
Have a good night.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Friday Always Closes "At the Highs"
Another week in the books! Had a great Friday and it's weekend time. Daytona 500 is on Sunday, maybe Kevin Harvick can pull off another one?
Market Observations
I don't like that oil is over $100 a barrel. There is a lag until it hits gas prices. I think oil is higher for poor reasons (Mid East tensions, pick any other) so maybe it will not last. That's about the only bad thing I see right now. Next week should be indicative of market direction for the next few weeks so I will be ready with a new watch list for Monday. I have only one open long (BANR, looks ugly after today!) so I have plenty of cash to put to work.
I don't mention my long term account much for a variety of reasons, but it's hard not to share that Sony (SNE) is up about 20% since I highlighted the double bottom around $18 in early January. It has run very hard and very high and I will have to decide next week if that's all it has left.
Friday Night Entertainment
The financial blogosphere's best (and only) Friday night party line. Multiple chat lines are allowed.
MUST SEE!!!!
My good friend David Batista found a real gem and had it up yesterday. I cannot believe I had never seen this clip, as huge a fan of the Conan film that I am. Here is "Conan the Barbarian: The Musical":
Instant classic! Thanks David.
Hard to top that one, but here I will try to keep up.
Pictures; It's Just Easier
No pop up books, but images.
I am a HUGE wildlife supporter but this is just too funny (The WWF used to be a Professional Wrestling league but lost out to the World Wildlife Fund):
see more epicfails
PUG PHOTOBOMB!!!:
see more This is Photobomb
@TA_Trader will like that one.
Film Clips
A couple ideas for your weekend rentals or streams.
"The Wrestler" is a tough movie and one that I think all should see. Not only does Mickey Rourke give a performance of a life time, the story is so painful and real that it can hurt. A lighter clip finally made it's way to YouTube, but of course I can not embed it. As the lead characters rock out to Ratt and "Round and Round" both explain the crap 90's grunge music in perfect clarity:
Click for Video
"Like there's something wrong with wanting to have a good time!"
The great Dustin Hoffman may never have been better than in "Kramer vs. Kramer" and paired with timeless Meryl Streep it's a classic. Here is the French Toast scene:
This scene makes me laugh and want to cry.
Rock Blogging
Some tunes for the people, they are still free as of now.
My friend Andrew Nyquist just had his birthday! Besides founding See It Market and being a great market operator, he likes good music! Here is a sick as all get out version of Bush playing "Machine Head":
@andrewnyquist on Twitter
Via Twitter @gtlackey was looking for some Jane's Addiction with "Mountain Song" and that works:
Nice!
How about some Kenny Wayne Shepherd? Try out "Never Lookin' Back" and check that baseline:
Just heard that for first time today!
Via Twitter @Andi_Hammer was looking for some Mishka and "Above the Bones" and this tune is pretty good:
Last two!
Market anti-theme? Iron Maiden does it with "Be Quick or Be Dead":
Last call!
Close the show with (I know have had it on before!) Big Wreck and "That Song":
Wundafewl!
Have a good night.
Market Observations
I don't like that oil is over $100 a barrel. There is a lag until it hits gas prices. I think oil is higher for poor reasons (Mid East tensions, pick any other) so maybe it will not last. That's about the only bad thing I see right now. Next week should be indicative of market direction for the next few weeks so I will be ready with a new watch list for Monday. I have only one open long (BANR, looks ugly after today!) so I have plenty of cash to put to work.
I don't mention my long term account much for a variety of reasons, but it's hard not to share that Sony (SNE) is up about 20% since I highlighted the double bottom around $18 in early January. It has run very hard and very high and I will have to decide next week if that's all it has left.
Friday Night Entertainment
The financial blogosphere's best (and only) Friday night party line. Multiple chat lines are allowed.
MUST SEE!!!!
My good friend David Batista found a real gem and had it up yesterday. I cannot believe I had never seen this clip, as huge a fan of the Conan film that I am. Here is "Conan the Barbarian: The Musical":
Instant classic! Thanks David.
Hard to top that one, but here I will try to keep up.
Pictures; It's Just Easier
No pop up books, but images.
I am a HUGE wildlife supporter but this is just too funny (The WWF used to be a Professional Wrestling league but lost out to the World Wildlife Fund):
see more epicfails
PUG PHOTOBOMB!!!:
see more This is Photobomb
@TA_Trader will like that one.
Film Clips
A couple ideas for your weekend rentals or streams.
"The Wrestler" is a tough movie and one that I think all should see. Not only does Mickey Rourke give a performance of a life time, the story is so painful and real that it can hurt. A lighter clip finally made it's way to YouTube, but of course I can not embed it. As the lead characters rock out to Ratt and "Round and Round" both explain the crap 90's grunge music in perfect clarity:
Click for Video
"Like there's something wrong with wanting to have a good time!"
The great Dustin Hoffman may never have been better than in "Kramer vs. Kramer" and paired with timeless Meryl Streep it's a classic. Here is the French Toast scene:
This scene makes me laugh and want to cry.
Rock Blogging
Some tunes for the people, they are still free as of now.
My friend Andrew Nyquist just had his birthday! Besides founding See It Market and being a great market operator, he likes good music! Here is a sick as all get out version of Bush playing "Machine Head":
@andrewnyquist on Twitter
Via Twitter @gtlackey was looking for some Jane's Addiction with "Mountain Song" and that works:
Nice!
How about some Kenny Wayne Shepherd? Try out "Never Lookin' Back" and check that baseline:
Just heard that for first time today!
Via Twitter @Andi_Hammer was looking for some Mishka and "Above the Bones" and this tune is pretty good:
Last two!
Market anti-theme? Iron Maiden does it with "Be Quick or Be Dead":
Last call!
Close the show with (I know have had it on before!) Big Wreck and "That Song":
Wundafewl!
Have a good night.
Thursday, February 23, 2012
Work in Progress
Only had 3 days so far of a 4 day work week, but still feels long! Alas, tomorrow is Friday!
This does mean you need to get Friday Night Entertainment blog requests in on the comments or over Twitter.
Market Operations
I sold out of AREX today from my buy on 1/31/2012 (Great work up on this one by ChessNwine, thanks!). Gain was +6.4%. There is nothing really wrong with the chart or the name, now that I am out it may well run higher big time. I have held the stock for 3 weeks and was ready to move on. Also, have been working on some screens that I want to direct more capital towards. Here is a look and I had a target on this around $41:
Good stuff.
Work in Progress
As the markets change, one has to adapt as well. When I re-entered the trading scene and mindset at the start of 2011 I was focused on bounce plays and oversold rebounds as the market had been very aggressive finding things of that sort to put money in. It worked well, for a while. After the Japan earthquake disaster things got much more difficult and the market sped up the tempo finding moving stocks then walking away. Rotation on an almost daily rate. Difficult to trade from a longer time frame (days- to 2 weeks is my trading window). Then the summer came and while shorting did not work in my trading account, things were very dicey.
By the end of the summer a new trend emerged and that was strictly watching overbought/oversold conditions as markets moved as one to each apex and bottom almost weekly. Some longer runs up and down formed, but by the time you could trust them, things changed.
2012 has been a much better environment. The start of 2012 has been a great time for many, and I am included. Patterns are going to end points, accumulation means something, the nerves have been assuaged.
And so things change again.
I have been noticing that many of my screens have been seeing stocks with excellent returns. Problem is my homework nights over the weekends are not finding the stocks moving in the week ahead, but a week after that or more. But they are finding great results and leads. I have a few screens built inside the iBC PPT that are working, but my timing has been off.
I see this as a good thing.
Instead of recklessly plowing into anything moving, larger money is back to scoping out a position, layering in, and holding on. This takes time and commitment. It is a huge positive for the market going forward.
As such, I want to try and work on these screens and ideas and allow them more of my focus. I have been testing plenty of the screens and I would be doing well had I allowed a touch more time for setups to both fully form AND stay on my radar. Maybe I am used to the hyper active turnarounds from times past, but I am dropping things from my main gun sights and that lag seems to be what's needed.
Of course, things could change. They always do.
Have a good night.
This does mean you need to get Friday Night Entertainment blog requests in on the comments or over Twitter.
Market Operations
I sold out of AREX today from my buy on 1/31/2012 (Great work up on this one by ChessNwine, thanks!). Gain was +6.4%. There is nothing really wrong with the chart or the name, now that I am out it may well run higher big time. I have held the stock for 3 weeks and was ready to move on. Also, have been working on some screens that I want to direct more capital towards. Here is a look and I had a target on this around $41:
Work in Progress
As the markets change, one has to adapt as well. When I re-entered the trading scene and mindset at the start of 2011 I was focused on bounce plays and oversold rebounds as the market had been very aggressive finding things of that sort to put money in. It worked well, for a while. After the Japan earthquake disaster things got much more difficult and the market sped up the tempo finding moving stocks then walking away. Rotation on an almost daily rate. Difficult to trade from a longer time frame (days- to 2 weeks is my trading window). Then the summer came and while shorting did not work in my trading account, things were very dicey.
By the end of the summer a new trend emerged and that was strictly watching overbought/oversold conditions as markets moved as one to each apex and bottom almost weekly. Some longer runs up and down formed, but by the time you could trust them, things changed.
2012 has been a much better environment. The start of 2012 has been a great time for many, and I am included. Patterns are going to end points, accumulation means something, the nerves have been assuaged.
And so things change again.
I have been noticing that many of my screens have been seeing stocks with excellent returns. Problem is my homework nights over the weekends are not finding the stocks moving in the week ahead, but a week after that or more. But they are finding great results and leads. I have a few screens built inside the iBC PPT that are working, but my timing has been off.
I see this as a good thing.
Instead of recklessly plowing into anything moving, larger money is back to scoping out a position, layering in, and holding on. This takes time and commitment. It is a huge positive for the market going forward.
As such, I want to try and work on these screens and ideas and allow them more of my focus. I have been testing plenty of the screens and I would be doing well had I allowed a touch more time for setups to both fully form AND stay on my radar. Maybe I am used to the hyper active turnarounds from times past, but I am dropping things from my main gun sights and that lag seems to be what's needed.
Of course, things could change. They always do.
Have a good night.
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Cinematic Re-Posts
I am sort of bored and not much happened today in the markets. Instead of pushing out a post repeating all the same type of stuff, why not take a break?
On August 20, 2011 I covered what I believe was one of the greatest obscure movie references of all time and I did all the research to support it. Take a look back on this classic post:
The Ultimate Obscure Observation
This was pretty bad ass if I do say so myself.
I often share clips of the best films I have seen, but how about the worst movies ever? In September I joined up for the Alex J. Cavanaugh Worst Movies Ever Blogfest and had a great time:
Worst Movies Ever Blogfest
10 of the worst films ever for various reasons!
Have a good night.
On August 20, 2011 I covered what I believe was one of the greatest obscure movie references of all time and I did all the research to support it. Take a look back on this classic post:
The Ultimate Obscure Observation
This was pretty bad ass if I do say so myself.
I often share clips of the best films I have seen, but how about the worst movies ever? In September I joined up for the Alex J. Cavanaugh Worst Movies Ever Blogfest and had a great time:
Worst Movies Ever Blogfest
10 of the worst films ever for various reasons!
Have a good night.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
Trade That Did Suck and Then Flipped Me Off
Had Monday off but today felt like a Monday so not much gained there.
Trade That Did Suck and Then Flipped Me Off
My buddy BC Lund writes a series of blogs that are titled "Trades That Didn't Suck" and as soon as I get a good one I will rush out a post along that line.
As is, I am sharing a Trade That Did Suck and Then Flipped Me Off from today and I hope you take some value away from it. If not, at least laugh at me a little.
Back on January 31 I opened a position in WTS (Watts Water Tech Inc.) and I have posted the charts of the setup on the blog (search WTS tags). I had the stock just under $38.50. I have been holding this one a while and it has done reasonably well.
I was running through my open positions this morning (AREX, BANR, WTS) and that's really when the fun started. On Finviz I saw the earnings section for WTS read as "FEB 20 AMC" as in YESTERDAY after market close. I was really shocked and consulted my little trading booklet where I keep things I need on hand written down. I had WTS earnings for February 22. Obviously I was wrong and it made no difference at that point in the morning how I had the wrong date.
A few curses later, I looked around for some news on the WTS earnings. Seems they slightly missed estimates (of course) so I was expecting to be taught a nasty lesson about rechecking earnings dates for open positions. WTS is sort of an unknown name and there were no pre-market trades to check this morning before the open until about 9am. This stock is so unfollowed I could not even find solace in a Yahoo Finance message board ultra bull pumper to make me feel any better.
All indications were that WTS would open down about 3-3.5% which would eat up almost all my gains in the name. If you have ever been long into a missed earnings report you know that's not too bad. Down 10-20% is not uncommon. I figured I could wait for a bounce after the open and exit the stock while salvaging a small profit.
Armed with my new plan I saw the stock gap down hard, but then there was a solid bounce taking WTS back over $39 where I exited the trade for a gain of 1.4%. To this point I have made the major mistake of having incorrect information and not being on top of earnings dates for an open position. I walked away unharmed, but that's not a common outcome on a screw up like this. I have February 22nd noted on most of my material for the WTS trade so something got mixed up. My blunder.
And now for the second part of the trade where WTS flips me off.
I was more worried about not getting caught up in a sell off this morning to note the stock action as much as I should have. On my chart for WTS it's clear that $38.30 was the scene of the breakout and even with the gap down this morning, it never broke back below that price. Had I been a touch more calm and had more time to look over the action I would have noticed that huge flag. And then the buy interest came in. Big time. What started off as an earnings miss gap down by day's end had become a monster bullish engulfing candle (click for larger view):
This kind of print is a dream come true for longs. My target was $42 for this name and it may get there this week. Without me.
So I would say WTS is giving me this right now:
┌∩┐(◣_◢)┌∩┐
To recap:
-I had incorrect earnings date
-I failed to keep key support levels for this stock in mind
-I pushed to close a trade more out of rushed fear than a place of calm
-I failed to remember that in 2012 missed earnings are actually a good thing (kidding, slightly)
Poor execution all around and it's probably my worst trade since last Spring (there were a few around that time). If this can serve as a wake up and keep me focused then I will take that as a positive going forward.
Have a good night.
Trade That Did Suck and Then Flipped Me Off
My buddy BC Lund writes a series of blogs that are titled "Trades That Didn't Suck" and as soon as I get a good one I will rush out a post along that line.
As is, I am sharing a Trade That Did Suck and Then Flipped Me Off from today and I hope you take some value away from it. If not, at least laugh at me a little.
Back on January 31 I opened a position in WTS (Watts Water Tech Inc.) and I have posted the charts of the setup on the blog (search WTS tags). I had the stock just under $38.50. I have been holding this one a while and it has done reasonably well.
I was running through my open positions this morning (AREX, BANR, WTS) and that's really when the fun started. On Finviz I saw the earnings section for WTS read as "FEB 20 AMC" as in YESTERDAY after market close. I was really shocked and consulted my little trading booklet where I keep things I need on hand written down. I had WTS earnings for February 22. Obviously I was wrong and it made no difference at that point in the morning how I had the wrong date.
A few curses later, I looked around for some news on the WTS earnings. Seems they slightly missed estimates (of course) so I was expecting to be taught a nasty lesson about rechecking earnings dates for open positions. WTS is sort of an unknown name and there were no pre-market trades to check this morning before the open until about 9am. This stock is so unfollowed I could not even find solace in a Yahoo Finance message board ultra bull pumper to make me feel any better.
All indications were that WTS would open down about 3-3.5% which would eat up almost all my gains in the name. If you have ever been long into a missed earnings report you know that's not too bad. Down 10-20% is not uncommon. I figured I could wait for a bounce after the open and exit the stock while salvaging a small profit.
Armed with my new plan I saw the stock gap down hard, but then there was a solid bounce taking WTS back over $39 where I exited the trade for a gain of 1.4%. To this point I have made the major mistake of having incorrect information and not being on top of earnings dates for an open position. I walked away unharmed, but that's not a common outcome on a screw up like this. I have February 22nd noted on most of my material for the WTS trade so something got mixed up. My blunder.
And now for the second part of the trade where WTS flips me off.
I was more worried about not getting caught up in a sell off this morning to note the stock action as much as I should have. On my chart for WTS it's clear that $38.30 was the scene of the breakout and even with the gap down this morning, it never broke back below that price. Had I been a touch more calm and had more time to look over the action I would have noticed that huge flag. And then the buy interest came in. Big time. What started off as an earnings miss gap down by day's end had become a monster bullish engulfing candle (click for larger view):
So I would say WTS is giving me this right now:
┌∩┐(◣_◢)┌∩┐
To recap:
-I had incorrect earnings date
-I failed to keep key support levels for this stock in mind
-I pushed to close a trade more out of rushed fear than a place of calm
-I failed to remember that in 2012 missed earnings are actually a good thing (kidding, slightly)
Poor execution all around and it's probably my worst trade since last Spring (there were a few around that time). If this can serve as a wake up and keep me focused then I will take that as a positive going forward.
Have a good night.
Monday, February 20, 2012
This Week
I have had a nice long weekend. Just a fast post tonight.
Two longs I like over the near to intermediate term.
OPNT:
On a weekly chart the $29.70 price point is clear as major support:
Maybe worth a look.
PACW:
This is a WEEKLY chart:
Could get very interesting and fast.
Have a good night.
Two longs I like over the near to intermediate term.
OPNT:
PACW:
This is a WEEKLY chart:
Have a good night.
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