Electric Boogaloo

Hello out there!

This morning at 11:37am the electricity went back on, along with the cable. It was timestamped on my generator.

And let me tell you about my generator.

I don't plug much here and when I do it's because I feel strongly about it. It could be blog sites or products but I never point you towards anything I do not believe in.

That said, if you are in an area where weather can knock out your power, you need to look into Generac Generators. The Guardian series of stand by units can fit all your needs and they perform. My unit (10kW) ran for 5 and a half days after no service for 6 months and had zero issues. They come on 10 seconds after power goes out and shut off and switch to utility after 3 minutes of outside power being confirmed. Checked the oil tonight and it's clean and not gritty at all. Solid units. Get the natural gas line if they are in your area and no need to have gasoline or propane on hand. This purchase really saved me money this week when looking at a week long hotel stay for 3 people and two animals.

In market related matters, I am still getting caught up. I expect more commentary over weekend as I get up to full speed. So much work to do in the yard as well this weekend, plenty of trees did not make it. A chart showing all I missed was more drama of wishful longs and shorts so scared of headlines it's a Gap 'O' Thon out there (hourly chart for better look, I only use daily charts for my work in general):

And it is my good friend Josh Brown's 3 year Anniversary of blogging on The Reformed Broker, so why not swing by and leave a comment. Readers know how much GYSC appreciates the help and advice that TRB offers. The best of us in this small world.

Oh, and Friday is on like Donkey Kong so get those requests in!

Have a good night.

Calamity from Storm

Hello out there! I am writing this on my phone so it will be brief.

The snow storm was terrible here and my neighborhood is severely damaged. Power is out and best case is for a Thursday restoration. I have doubts.

The power outages are so widespread gas is in major shortage and I witnessed a scary situation at a gas station tonight. Police sirens and fire truck horns run all night here and its not a good time.

Luckily I had trees removed a while back and my Generac generator which runs on a natural gas underground line has me powered up. Still no cable so no computer. It could be much worse and its not really cold yet so that helps.


So no real blog posts, but I am tweeting stuff. Hope everyone in this storm is doing ok.

Have a good night.

Escape Velocity Friday

It actually snowed last night and we might even get a few inches tomorrow night! Readers know how much I despise the winter.

Rocket Market
October was lights out for markets as the S&P 500 rose over 14%, one of it's best month ever. The Reformed Broker has a great chart of the best months for the S&P via Bespoke Investment group showing them all there.

I covered why I believed a large move up was coming:
-Panic De-Selling October 17th
-Resolution is at Hand October 19th

I mentioned last night that I did not trade this move well in my trading account but what can you do.

Looking ahead if markets can consolidate and tighten up next week, a sustained move into the next month is the most likely outcome. I will have much more on this Sunday when it is homework night but until then here is a chart worth a look as I have been using it as my guide for this summer into fall season of chaos (click for larger view):

Friday Night Entertainment
As if everyone is not jubilant enough!

If We Don't Love our Humanity the Robots Win
Fellow 12631 member TDLAmagi tweeted this story today and it's just my kind of thing:
Scientists create brain-like, massively parallel computer from molecules
Using the chemical 2,3-dichloro-5,6-dicyano-p-benzoquinone(DDQ) and gold, the computer is fashioned! Read the piece as it's more complicated than that. Bottom line, quantum computers are coming and they will become self aware.

Picture Pages
Time to get your markers and your pencils.

Seems about right:

see more Very Demotivational

Messaging the truth:

see more

Film Clips
Some ideas for your NFLX or Red Box addiction.

"The Godfather III" gets a bad rap but I really think it was well done and a strong film. There are several key parts but I love when Vincent takes on the two assassins Zasa sent after him (and Bridgett Fonda eye candy):

"I'm gonna do something to convince you"

A made for TV movie (TNT) that did not suck was the supernatural "Purgatory". Featuring an all star cast, this film had a novel concept of former gunfighters (Wild Bill Hickock, Doc Holliday, Billy the Kid and others) having to serve out a penance period before being allowed into Heaven. Chance brings an outlaw bad into their town and it's just a great story. Highly recommend:

You will thank me later.

Rock Blogging
Making the music since 2007.

Why not a little mood music? Def Leppard and "Have You Ever Needed Someone so Bad":

Nice.

Reader Watchtower was worried "Dreamboat Annie" by Heart was too mellow for Friday night. I play all kinds of stuff, no problem:

I love that tune actually.

I played the next tune a while ago and it got rave reviews. Since then I have many new readers (thanks! leave a comment!) and a number of quality Twitter followers. I am playing again so this gets heard. You will love this Phil Pearlman! Cover of "Tears of the Dragon":

Epic.

My favorite Guns N' Roses song is "You Could be Mine" out of a sea of killer songs. Everyone hates this one because it was attached to Terminator 2. Too bad:


Ok, two left.

Got this one stick in my head on drive home so it's Santa Esmeralda and "Don't Let me be Misunderstood":

That will get you moving.

Last call, grab a drink and whatever else you need.

Alice in Chains, "Would?" is nasty fine:


Have a good night.

What Can be Said?

I just had a special 2 hour and 15 minute drive home! If that was not great enough I have to head out in an hour again! Just lovely.

What Can be Said?
It was a panic out there today on the buy side. Not much left to be said. I laid out this path in a couple posts over the past weeks, was not a huge surprise.

I got almost none of the massive rally in my trading account. I over thought things too much instead of sticking to my general ideas that I wrote out on the blog. Don't worry for me, I do have a long term account (4 times larger than trading) and I had a good summer there and caught a little of the latest and greatest rally. I am a far better longer term trader than short term, it's becoming very clear to me! I think I trade different when I choose to talk about it openly and that's something I will have to think about. Live and learn.

Anyways, markets set up now for either a repeat of last year end's epic run or some kind of collapse after a 20% move in under 30 days. Should be fun as always.

Have a good night.

Pressed for Time

It's not been a great week so far, mostly due to things not related to the blog or markets. You know, real life and stuff. Short on time so just a few notes and then I am going to enjoy some quiet time and read stuff.

I sold out all three of my stock picks this morning. Yes, a couple hours before the crazy run up. I know, weak! AVA (-1%), TX (+1%), and SATS (-2.5%) were the final tallies. All three were not too close to my set stops, but market was looking ugly in the morning and I was going to be away most of the day and did not want to deal with some kind of wash out when I got back in the afternoon. Gun shy I guess.

Tomorrow is more Euro headlines and some GDP numbers. I am screening tonight to see what's interesting.

Have a good night.

The Lesson from McGuigan vs. Pedroza

Traffic today was insanity. No accidents, no rain, and no reason.

The Lesson from McGuigan vs. Pedroza

The market had become very extended and a solid drop today was seen. The S&P closed at 1229 which is annoying if you, like me, were looking at the 1230 level as important. If my idea about making a run higher is correct there will have to be sideways movement to work off overbought situation. Another bout of heavy selling will damage even the stronger names on the tape.

Amazon (AMZN) missed earnings tonight and that is going to weigh heavy. The Euro situation went from poor, to bad, to a total mess during the day today. Robert Sinn has the goods here:
Postcard From Brussels

Europe’s leaders have agreed that they can’t agree on anything substantive and that they will have an endless series of meetings to talk about things which they have already talked about.

Indeed.

My three positions; AVA, TX, and SATS are still looking solid to me and holding above levels where I would sell them out. Tomorrow will be an important day so there is not much use going over things heavily with that in mind.

Instead allow me to use a boxing match from 1985 for a trader lesson.

In 1985 Eusebio Pedroza was the WBA Featherweight Champion. He had made 19 title defenses over 7 years all over the world. He was a true professional in every sense of the word and a future Hall of Famer. He accepted the challenge of defending the title in London against young Irish upstart contender Barry McGuigan.

At Loftus Road Stadium in London in front of a wildly pro-McGuigan crowd, Pedroza was knocked down in the 7th round and lost a unanimous 15 round decision. 19 title defenses and 7 years as champion were over.

Boxing observers were amazed as the fight went on at the calmness and professionalism exhibited by Pedroza. Both He and his corner kept their cool and tried their best to find a way to win a fight that they were over matched in. It was an amazing contrast to see as the crowd noise was deafening and the excitement was powerful, yet Pedroza remained collected through the entire fight.

That environment reminds me of right now. The noise and the pressure are running very high. Headlines are flying and it's easy to feel over matched by the market when companies blow earnings or the FED rolls out some new plan.

It's times like this that one needs to stay calm and execute to the best of their ability. Discipline is of paramount importance to navigate the current market. Professionalism and courtesy often go out the window as the reversals and volatility get more pronounced. Be in control of your plan and in control of your emotions. Be like Pedroza.

You can see the decsion read in the video below at the 4:35 mark:


Have a good night.

If the Big Picture is Confusing, try a Wallet Size

I still am not fond of Mondays.

If the Big Picture is Confusing, try a Wallet Size
I am going to be as honest as I can be (thanks James Altucher). It's confusing out there and I am confused.

The Euro debt mess never seems to move along. The slowdown in the US that was pronounced just a couple months ago has started to show signs of picking up. Stocks were breaking serious levels to the downside at the start of October, but now are moving through the upper end of the trading channel now. Safe to say I cannot have any certainty near term what is going on.

When the big picture is confusing, it can be helpful to go with a wallet size instead. On Monday October 17 I penned what I thought would be the dominant market force going forward:

The vicious rally seen over the past week or so has pulled major indices back from just about bear market territory to close to even for the year. Digest that little nugget for a second.
And I think there exists a chance for an even more extreme move
Maybe earnings season will go well this time around. Maybe the FED drops a bomb. Who knows, it won't take much. I think a run to the 200 MDA could happen fast (1275 - 1280) and if it does the chasing could be Lord of the Rings epic at that point.

So I was looking at psychology and blocking out all the other things as I looked at market action. The move since then has made sense through that lens.

I bought some positions today and those buys will help explain what wallet size pictures I am looking at right now. Click any chart for larger view.

I bought AVA this morning:

AVA is a diversified utilities company and has had good relative strength over the past months. The breakage to the upside of the triangle has volume behind it. This one is getting extended here, but the sector has been leading the charge. If it continues I will see higher prices. If it falters that may be an early tell on markets changing.

The second buy was for TX:

TX is a steel and iron company. I have been watching this one be accumulated for some time. I was looking for resolution out of the tight basing pattern and today may have pushed it through. Again, a leading look for the markets so far. This stock was found on an iBankCoin PPT screen that also gave me the stock BRO but I missed that one going crazy to the upside.

The last one is more of a speculative type of play, SATS:

Again, tight range was resolved higher, though the candle today gives me some pause. Another factor that made the pick attractive is best shown by a longer term chart:

When the price area of $25 is broken on this, it moves fast. Figured if animal spirits get involved it may move.

I was working on cement companies last night in the 12631 trading room and was liking CRH and that one was moving as well today (no position).

So what I have is a strong utility stock, a steel and iron company, and a technology speculative play. If the economy is indeed slowing and it's just a short covering low volume baloney rally then I would expect the steels to roll over fast. If fear grips the market selling high fliers like the utilities would probably happen. If no one wants to put money into anything speculative, then SATS will get creamed.

But if not, all these three have potential and all three will be my wallet picture going forward, they will tell me what I need to know.

Have a good night.