Action Review and Weekly Decisions

Still hot here! Tomorrow will top out over 100 degrees. Going to hit the beach on Saturday and hope to get into the cold North Atlantic ocean.

Tomorrow is Friday night and you know that means requests are honored for the big show; music, films, books, you name it but you have to submit a request in the comments or by email.

Action Review and Weekly Decisions
This week I was thinking about all the kinds of traders there are. You can do most anything from scalping a few pennies on a monster position in a liquid stock within seconds to holding a position for 10 years or more. Everyone has to find what works for them.

For most of my assets readers know I am a long term holder of things I think will move up long term. Minimal turnover and time spent managing those things, I like that for the most part. With my trading account I do like to pick spots and see if I can find winners, but the daily in and out is not possible time wise, so my basic set up is to find stocks I can play for about 4-7 days and then make a decision on whether to keep them or dump them. I call this kind of trading predictive trading where I am looking for a set move and set target area before it happens. Reactive trading to me is seeing something happening then piling on or riding the wave. Nothing wrong with that, but not my kind of fun.

This week I also did something not like my usual style, I got pretty nasty aggressive on a risky position. chessNwine had an interesting call in the 12631 on Friday about the semiconductor sector. Both the thesis and chart were attractive and when I thought more about it sector rotation into semi's made so much sense I was in. Best way to go bananas? Why the 3X leveraged bull semiconductor ETF SOXL of course! And with a large part of the trading account to boot. Lack of beer makes me more risk seeking I think, weird. I bought on Friday and I am still holding today. Up over 8% so far. Do not try this at home.

Added: Please note the charts tonight are not the same detail I like to present. I used the freestockcharts.com camera function but it compresses the charts so much. It's quicker than using the sniping tool, but the lack of detail even on the larger versions if you click them suck. Sorry about that.

Plays I made this week include a day loss of 3% on GPRO (poor headline killed the stock this week) and the following ideas:
CSU +7%:

Getting close to decision time on this one, was looking for 10% but may be getting extended here.

GFIG +4%:

I actually think this one could have some legs to it.

I am still in ASYS for 0% move, this has to move tomorrow or I am dumping it.

I missed out on NI this week, you can't buy them all:

Had I bought at $20.40 like I wanted to, I would be up 4% on this one. Bangs head on wall.....

Looking to make some room for new ideas next week.

Ok, time for my first beer in 10 days!!!!!

Have a good night.

Times They are a Changing

Is it Thursday yet??????

Market Operations
I think it is because I feeling so much better, but I am getting juiced for market action again. I am back in the trading turret for sure. Armed with iBankCoin's PPT system and the 12631 Trading room I am getting back in a groove. Special thanks to my man chessNwine as well.

The Good
CSU is behaving well. I may be looking at my target area of $9.70-$10 by weeks end if the euphoria sticks around. I bought ASYS today and the chart is shaping up nicely for a higher move. In the 12631 I went full bore on an idea concerning semiconductors as a whole. You DO NOT WANT to know how hard I got positioned for this, it's not like me and I am really overweight one idea. It felt right though. In time I will reveal the play.

The Bad
Torn between WM, NI and GPRO this morning, I went with a small position in GPRO. This was based on technicals and such, but a news event cratered the stock and I ate a 3% loss. Not a mistake per se, but a missed opportunity on a day when almost everything went bananas.

The Second Chance
Still have my eye on WM, but I had mentioned NI as a possible break out idea (close over $20.50) earlier in the week. Here is today's look:

I have to admit this one is a blind spot for me as NI has not seen $25 since 2007 and $30 was last printed in 2001. I thought this one was a new all time high! Still, making headway into new recent territory is a tough trade for me. I may buy it on any test of $20.50 this week anyway. I am feeling that froggy.

I hope that was enough market action for the readers, I know it was for me!

Added: Around 1pm I Tweeted "1324-1325 for SP500 close today seems about right.". Of course it closes at 1326.7, ugh!!! I was trying to make a splash!

Shocking Headline of the Day
3 monster headlines today, shocking as they can be:
-Apple beats Estimates, Shares Rise
-Sun Will Rise Tomorrow
-An Apple Fell from a Tree, Hit Ground
You can't believe any of it, I know!

Times They are a Changing
Apple earnings (just amazing how much cash that cult company generates!) got me thinking today.

For a long time I have always equated the stock market with the US economy. Record earnings by large multi-national firms and great earnings growth by all other firms tends to come from cheaper labor abroad and SALES abroad. The US economy is in the middle stages of serious deleveraging but now there may be critical consumer mass out there around the world to replace that demand. I saw that 60% plus of Apple earnings were retrieved from overseas. That is a shocking number for a US centric thinker.

To be sure there are currents of hot money, free liquidity, and animal spirits pushing many stocks to levels that make no sense. At this time I cannot see a reason not to go after the best ideas and the best setups one can work out***. The stock market may be off in it's own world, but that does not mean it cannot be touched.

***NOTE: EconomicDisconnect is the ultimate contrarian indicator. A close for the S&P500 under 1000 tomorrow cannot be ruled out after this post.

Have a good night.

747 Taking Off, or There Goes Another Load?

The air here was so heavy today it was like a blanket. Pretty gross and sticky. Doctor visit went very well, I am cleared for all normal activities, such that they are. Green light on beer as well, come to papa Thursday night!

Market Operations
Last night I went over the stocks that I was going to consider playing this week. The morning open brought a nasty drop which complicates buying positions. Looking things over I pulled the trigger on CSU at $8.90. Both NI and WM still are on watch, but the weak day overall kept me from getting aggressive. Turnaround Tuesday may happen tomorrow and so I can rethink an entry at that time. Other names I am interested in for tomorrow:
-ASYS
-GPRO
I still hold GFIG.

747 Taking Off, or There Goes Another Load?
Today reminded me of a passage from the short story "Rage" by Stephen King:

'High school toilets are all the same; they sound like 747's taking off. I've always hated pushing that handle. It makes you sure that the sound is clearly audible in the adjacent classroom and that everybody is thinking: Well, there goes another load.'

You are probably asking if this is all going to make sense. It might.

At this point the markets are all over the place. Big rallies give way to sustained selling. Selling gets mauled by fast rocket ship rallies. This is a sign of a real tussle between the bullish and not so bullish (I may cut bears from my vocabulary). One of my least favorite aspects of things economic is the glacial pace of movement and the Kid Dynamite maple syrup dripping slowness of market resolution.

As such, I am sticking to my plan of trading individual names and maybe sectors while the general market goes all Royal Rumble on itself. If earnings come in good and some kind of can kicking can be done for Euro debt and the US debt ceiling, today may have marked a bottom where the 747's are cleared for takeoff. Markets can finally trend higher.

The financials are looking dead and should forward guidance sound the wrong note, well, there could be a big WHOOOOOSH and that will be the market getting flushed for the rest of the summer.

How is that for a stance? Maybe this, maybe that. I want to put my foot down here, but it's really in flux. I wish I could feel strong one way or the other.

For a great big picture technical view, I would strongly encourage anyone interested in the markets to check out iBankCoin's chessNwine with the market recap video from today:
Stock Market Recap 7/18/2011
It's the best 5 minutes you can use this evening to get a handle on where things are.

I have long held that for QE 3 to be rolled out a significant market drop would have to occur. Recent action does not even come close. How about a scare to get the debt ceiling done? Two for one? Be mindful out there.

Have a good night.