Friday has Been Upgraded to AAA

HUGE Saturday tomorrow! Saints vs 49ers first up and then the Patriots face the Broncos in the night game. My two favorites on the same day.

I am feeling pretty good and getting better. Won't matter tomorrow I am going to be jacked up no matter what.

Market Observations
I sold TZA today for a round trip of 0%. The drop I had been expecting based on topping candles never really came about. At this point confidence that a lasting bottom has been formed and a longer rally is on the way is running very high. Even the debt downgrades today had little impact (so far) on sentiment and prices. My argument for a pull back was based on candles, and this chart shows that when they happen, reversals usually happen quickly:

This action has been 4 days of hanging around so I give it less weight at this point. If this is a major top it's going to catch plenty very unaware. As no one owns a stock overnight I guess it won't matter anyway.

Friday Night Entertainment
Providing the lighter side of things since 2007.

Long time readers know my severe addiction to Wikipedia. One of the fun things I do every day, you may want to write this down, is click the "on this date" bar at the bottom right. An entire list of cool historical events comes up and today had a good one.

In 1968 Johnny Cash performed at Folsom State Prison. You may have seen the film "Walk the Line" that dramatized Cash's life. It's a classic album and doing the show said plenty about Johnny Cash:

Thanks Wikipedia!

Old Truck
Saw an old truck on the highway on the drive home and I could not place the year, it was clearly a Chevy. A little image searching and bingo! It was a 1951 Chevrolet 3100 pick up:

Not as nice as this picture, but it was in good shape. Get that thing in for the winter!

Picture Pages
Time to get your markers and your pencils.

These girls are the last untapped market for Lululemon (LULU):

see more After 12

I don't think that's going to work:

see more Very Demotivational.
New Era. Comedy captures such things amazingly well I think

Film Clips
Rent them, stream them, or buy them in Hong Kong, but see them.

I loved S.E. Hinton's novel "The Outsiders" and I think the book was translated well into the film of the same name. All star cast and great performances. In this clip the greasers get ready for the final rumble and for all the lady readers there is eye candy, I am fair and balanced after all:


Revenge plus a great 50's tune? I am in! From "Christine", the death of Moochie:

Little bitty pretty one.....

Rock Blogging
The tunes are here.

My friend from Twitter @TSXSwingtrader is from Canadia so it's fitting for some Tom Cochrane and "Life is a Highway":

Thanks!

I had never heard this song and had no idea Ace was with another band, but my friend GtoToy sent this to me, Ace Frehley and "Rock Soldiers":

Wonderful! Thanks.

I had my 600th follower on Twitter tonight and while I believe quality is better than quantity it's amazing all the great people I get to interact with. Lucky #600 is @CanvasBTMargins and her request is "Someday" by The Strokes":

Good pick.

How about a live show of Faith No More and "Epic"?:

Sick.

Josh Brown was looking for a tune I know, and I hope he was not joking, here is Band of Horses with "The Marry Song":

Excellent selection.

If we can get back to a market that is not 100% correlated, this is what happens, "The Sultans of Swing" -trading via Dire Straits:


Last call! Grab a drink, a girl, the remote, whatever works.

Had it on many times, but I was thinking of it. "Joey" by Concrete Blonde:


Have a good night.

At Some Point, Will Need a New Playbook

Woke up this morning and my eyes were about swelled shut. Sinus pressure is bad! Had to take the day off and go the antihistamine route. Feeling a little better now.

At Some Point, Will Need a New Playbook

2012 has started very positive and markets are very happy. Across the board enticing setups are showing up and fear has taken a back seat. Sentiment is running heavily towards the bullish side and action has followed suit.

For the last 5 months of 2011 this has always been a spot to get skeptical and very light or even outright short. At some point this will change and the playbook will have to be updated with new ideas. chessNwine has an excellent recap video today that discusses what may happen going forward this year; a market that rewards the best set ups and stock picks instead of a mass risk on/risk off sort of thing. You can see the recap here.

Looking things over today I was faced with one of two decisions, open up some long positions even as things are extended here (the two indicators I follow Robert Sinn's SMS and the PPT Hybrid score) or use the same old play from the old playbook and take a shot at a short position. I chose the latter.

I bought TZA about 15 minutes before the market close. I did this for two reasons. One was the blog I wrote last night about the last gasp rally to S&P 500 1295 or so. The gap up today had that well in play. The second is that I am feeling pretty ill and it would be easier to manage one position than carry 2-4 positions especially around earnings season where you have to check across your stock buys industry in case there is news that affects your position.

In either case, it should be readily apparent what is going on should TZA continue to fall part here. If a sustained move up is on the way, I feel that there will be great room to the upside in many names and I can play it out going forward that way. Top picks are TTEK, DFS, and INTU.

Have a good night.

Wills, Will Not's, and To Do's for 2012

Everyone at the house and my Mom are super sick with a bad stomach bug. It's hydration duties here. I am feeling a bit tired and light headed off and on, but nothing too bad.

Market Operations
Last Thursday I bought the 3X short fund TZA. This was based on a sentiment indicator done by Robert Sinn, the SMS score. Things looked a bit poor as the rally went on, but limited volume and limited downside in TZA made me think the short idea would play out. Today was a solid correction to the downside and I closed the TZA trade for +4%. I think there could be some more weakness tomorrow but the Overbought cycle may be played out near term. We shall see.

As a side note, Robert will most likely be moving his market letter emails and SMS commentary to a paid service on his site. If you have been following along during the free trial you know the value his work provides. I will be subscribing in the New Year and this would only be the second paid service I have ever wanted to put my money down for (iBankCoin PPT and 12631 the other) so you know I feel there is actionable, quality work by Robert.

Wills, Will Not's, and To Do's for 2012
Some notes I have made over the past few weeks on my ideas for the New Year.

Will Nots
-I will not rule out taking a trade good traders put on because I don't want to "steal" their idea. There are some serious smart people out there and it's no crime to follow on an idea if I find the merit in it.
-I will not buy Chinese Burrito stocks. (easy)
-I will not buy Banks. (usually easy)
-I will not buy metal miners. (failed a few times this year)
-I will not take things too personal if I can in any way help it.
-I will not allow fear to keep me away from medical attention if I am in need. (summer intestine infection)
-I will not allow Twitter sniper's to make me jumpy in positions.
-I will not use leverage.

Wills
-I will pay more attention to sentiment/momentum indicators when buying positions. Maybe 10 times I bought names ready for a move up, but a quick check in with something like the iBC PPT hybrid score would have flashed caution. Getting shaken out quickly only to see the pattern you were looking for to resume is annoying. Costly in lost opportunity as well.
-I will get back to each and every person that asks me a question via any medium (blog, email, twitter).
-I will expand stop ranges to deal with volatility.
-I will ride winners until they prove it's all over, not just a hiccup.
-I will keep looking for hole in the wall sites that no one reads as some of the sharpest writers I know most don't even know about.
-I will work to improve my writing.
-I will be better about leaving comments on blogs.
-I will work to morph my longer term trading style with my short term style. One did far better than the other this year.

To Do's
-Update blogroll and improve site.
-Figure out if moving the blog to another medium has any merit.
-Lose weight
-Be ready for fishing season
-Be more concise with blog posts
-Go to The Big Picture Conference if it's held again
-Meet more people for lunch or dinner

Have a good night.

Friday Night Holiday Festival

It's almost Christmas!! Picked up a prime rib today for the Big Steel Keg smoker treatment on Sunday. Looks good, and there will be pictures.

My very best wishes for all the readers over the holiday and into the New Year. Great readers are what make me continue to work harder all the time. I appreciate it.

Market Observation
Not much to add. Still right where we were yesterday, only a little higher. No where near stopped out on the TZA position I have and will hold into next week.

The Megabucks Christmas
My last two Christmas tales were not meant to be sad. They were just memorable ones that I wrote about. How about a feel good story then?

One year when the Massachusetts Lottery came out with Megabucks, my parents won one of the smaller prizes! I think it was around $3000, which was monster money for our family. I believe it was 1985 but I get years mixed up sometimes. They won in November and I think they blew it all on Christmas presents. It was insane.

I got the biggest Transformer toy ever made, Omega Supreme:

And best of all, I got my first BMX bike, a Columbia Pro Am! I was able to find the exact bike with a picture search in Google:

I had a longer post in mind but no one can compete with Brian Lund's post from today The Greatest Gift I Have Ever Received so check that one out.

Friday Night Entertainment
Getting you ready for the big holiday weekend.

Fun with Pictures
Get you laughing.

Black Bart is in trouble now!:

see more epicfails

Scottish folded ear kitty!:

see more Lolcats and funny pictures, and check out our Socially Awkward Penguin lolz!

Film Clips
Holiday edition!

A classic comedy film that is set around Christmas time is "Better Off Dead". Sorry for the poor quality but you have to see the face squeezing CHRISTMAS part at the end:


A new era holiday classic is "Elf" and here is a great scene:

"You smell like beef and cheese, you don't smell like Santa", LOL

I never saw "It's a Wonderful Life" until high school and I think that was better because it meant all the more by then. Here is the Potter speech:

No equal. Nothing like that Stewart fellow.

Rock Blogging
Some tunes to send you on your way?

Got a request for "Call and Answer" by Barenaked Ladies and I am glad I did. Never heard it before and it's mighty fine:

Amazing tune, love it.

Twisted Sister and "Heavy Metal Christmas":

Ozzy tattoo! Nice!

This is great! Metallica's "Enter Sandman" to Christmas lights!:

Feeling a Pokemon seizure coming on.

On this holiday I would be wrong to not be in the mind of my dear friend, that I miss so much, Soleil. I miss you my friend and I miss all the help you gave me. Wish I could have helped you more. Florence and the Machine with a really nice acoustic version of "The Dog Days are Over":

Miss you.

Back in college a bunch of scientists formed a band. This tune rocks! I have zero music talent but I did help them set up. Who else had a T4 phage picture on the drumset? Man Bites Back and "Ghetto Starlight":


Last song! Grab a girl, a drink, or anything else!

My favorite by far Christmas song is Bob Seger's "Drummer Boy". Just so perfect:

Tear every time.

Have a good night.

The Long and Short of It

I hope you are all getting ready for the Christmas weekend! I am going to have some company coming soon so just a few quick notes.

The Long and Short of It
I could run through more charts and all that, but we have been looking at the same things for a while. Today was an important day I believe, and any confirmation to the upside will be very constructive going forward. That said, markets are at key inflection points that have proven difficult for some time.

The Pros:
-S&P 500 close over 1230 this week
-S&P 500 close over 1250 today
-Headline danger has abated from Europe
-Low volume implies lack of selling pressure going forward

The Cons:
-S&P 500 at key resistance level
-Low volume could cause run up to rapidly deflate should volume return
-Overall bullish sentiment surge last two days

As I planned, I took a full position in TZA (3X bear fund) when the S&P 500 hit 1250 this morning for the second time. I am flat on the position even as the S&P closed at 1254. This is a pure overbought short term play, nothing more. Overall I am constructive on this market and more upside confirmation going forward will mean it's time to be playing the long side.

Have a good night.