The Black Hole in Wyoming

The news is really playing up the hurricane coming this way. I am all set though; 10kw Generac generator run on an underground natural gas line; enough SPAM, rice, and bottled water to last a month, and a sense of humor. Seriously, this is not going to be that bad.

The Black Hole in Wyoming
So tomorrow is the day. Ben Bernanke gives his Jackson Hole speech on FED policy. It's the event of the summer and you are all invited. Dress nice folks, this is the big time!

Title of this post was inspired by that atrocious sci-fi movie long ago, "The Black Hole":

Yes it had robots of course:

Who remembers this film?

Emotions are high and guesses run all over the place. My ideas on what will happen, and their chances are:
1.) Full blown QE 3 for 1 Trillion announced (will begin in October). Markets go full lift off and it will be weeks until anyone looks back. Bernanke is the hamburglar stealing any chance you have at saving anything.
chance: 25%

2.) Bernanke uses soft words to say that QE will come, but not right this second as he downgrades economy. Markets protest for Friday, but solid uptrend starts next week.
chance: 60%

3.) Bernanke says FED will be on watch, but that the US CONgress should get involved in stimulus and not rely on just the FED. Markets close for Friday afternoon.
chance: 15%

Of course it will be some kind of blend of 1 and 2 most likely.

Even after a year of all the green shoots and being welcomed to the recovery, markets need help and another housing hand out is on the way, from Trader Mark:
White House Considering Plan for Country Wide Refinance of Government Backed Mortgages
It's never going to end. It's not. Stop pretending it will.

Freedom Rock
Classic commercial time:


Have a good night.

Ben Bernanke: Follow for Friday (#FF)

I had the tree removal crew here today to do some serious tree cutting. Plenty of trees never really made it back from the huge ice storm 3 years ago. Others were just so overgrown it was crazy. My yard expanded by about 100% but now I will have extra yard work. I should have thought about that.

Aftershocks!
I was sitting at my lab desk when the earthquake hit today. I felt a weird rolling sensation and the liquids in bottles on the shelf were moving! It stopped, then happened again. Bizarre feeling!! A bit unnerving. Anyways, no problems here from the quake. That was a first for me.

Ben Bernanke: Follow for Friday (#FF)
Markets blew up sky high today. It was just like the old days; rumors, scared shorts, natural disaster. Crazy stuff.

Today was a monster day because:
-Shorts running for hills before Friday's Jackson Hole speech
-Rumors about short bans being extended
-Rumors JPM would take over BAC (??)
-People were bored of red numbers

In any case, I did notice many that were in a mode of "sell rallies" did the 180 and became bottom buyers right here. I see no reason to get involved until I know what the FED has planned for Friday. If we get some crazy QE iteration with cash raining down from above, markets could rally for months until they figure out it did not work. No reason to get in right this second. If Bernanke plays hands off and yells at CONgress to get something done, being long is not going to feel good.

Besides, the S&P 500 has not really breached an area I would feel strong about getting long yet. A close and hold over 1180 would be a start. It might happen tomorrow. Pragmatic Capitalism had the perfect note on this today:

The bigger news of the day is the widespread belief that Bernanke is going to whip out a bazooka this Friday. If you’re a short seller heading into Friday you’re rightfully afraid. Why would you risk being short into an announcement by a man who is overly in-love with market performance and persistent in building up the Bernanke Put? The right answer is that you’d have to be borderline insane to be heavily short into the Jackson Hole speech. Bernanke’s baby is crying and he’s been prone to give it what it wants every time it cries hard enough for it. And as markets sink in recent weeks there should be little doubt that Bernanke will ride to the rescue, pacifier in hand, ready to insert into the crying mouth of this bloated baby known as Wall Street.

Nice!

Anyone that heeded my metals note last night can hit the DONATE button, you are welcome!

Great Photo
Via Geekologie (click for bigger view):

This is the photo taken 45-years ago today when Lunar Orbiter 1, tasked with locating a suitable landing zone for the future Apollo missions, turned around and took a picture of earth from the moon.

Wow.

Have a good night.