I will have a NFL Week 2 preview post up tomorrow. Some big matchups again already so the action should be great. NASCAR kicks off the final 10 races for the championship in New Hampshire as well.
Sentiment Survey
The Reformed Broker pointed me to survey done by The Kirk Report on the investor sentiment cycle. Here is what it looks like:
From the write up:
Of those who dared to offer take the poll and go on record (most I asked never responded), 63% thought the cycle had already bottomed out while 37% see further downside to go in this cycle.Interesting comments by the respondents are worth a look.
How did I figure that out? When you look at the overall votes, the most popular response was that we are currently in the hope phase as 26% of those who I polled offered that as their view. This was followed closely by 21% who said we are in the depression phase, followed by 16% who think we are in the optimism phase. If these people are correct, as a combined group 63% of them think we’ve already bottomed out and are headed higher at least in terms of this current sentiment cycle. Please note where each of the three areas of the cycle – hope, depression & optimism – fall within the cycle. After each phase, the market moved higher.
Nobody asked me, but I think massive intervention and some market friendly machinations built a bridge from panic right over to hope. We have been at hope for some time hoping for something to happen while the data gets worse as of late. Hoping for a miracle?
Blogroll Addition
I am adding the site iBankCoin as I have been reading it now for 2 weeks straight and I think it offers plenty of great insight and also it is plenty of fun! Writer chessNwine is as balanced in his thinking as you are ever to come across; Jake Gint is a metal lover, and The Fly, well, this guy is so funny it hurts! He is also a great market timer as well. A little taste to get you started over there? From The Fly today:
The Party is Fun, Until it EndsThat rocked!
In my opinion, we have a maximum of 2% upside left, and 15% down. I’ve been through markets like this before, as many of you. The big difference between you, and a person such as myself: I remember the answers. I can personally guarantee many of you will be caught 100% long, or more, into the top. It happens every time. After all, someone has to hold the bag of bombs filled with shit.
There will be no warnings or mercy, just down. Perhaps the widening CDS spreads in Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Ukraine will have something to do with the decline. Or, it might be caused by fears of taxes rising or monetary tightening in Asia. Dare I say, the markets may just sell off due to profit taking? I mean, let’s be perfectly clear with one another, if the United States economy was a business, would you buy it now? The notion that news is so bad it has to get better applies best when markets are depressed. Last I checked, CRM was trading 1 billion times 2020 earnings.
Full disclosure: I have no affiliation with the site, but I am very seriously considering subscribing to their PPT product for trading purposes. I want to see how it works and see how I work on stock picks compares with it. I do want to be more active in the markets and a little help is a good thing! Let me know if anyone uses this service so I can get some feedback.
Funkalicious Friday
When your down and out. Feeling small. When evening falls so hard, you need Friday Night entertainment!
I Have Seen the Future and It Wants to do Exercises
Well you knew a robot post was sure to come up! Check out this creepy robot that can do exercises and track a human as he intends to vaporize him with eye socket laser beams:
The HRP-4:
The HRP4 has full arm articulation and simple hand movements, giving it a grasping force of 1.1 pounds. It has facial recognition built in, so it'll know who you are, and it also reacts to voice commands.You have been warned. Repeatedly.
Pictures Are Easier Than Words
Which is why all I read are pop up books!
The REAL reason the Empire won at the Battle of Hoth:
see more Lolcats and funny pictures
I just don't think this is a real statue!:
see more EpicFail
No Way.
Cinematic Suggestions
Helping you pick films since 2007.
An 80's classic comedy is "Ruthless People". One of my favorite scenes is when Judge Reinhold goes crazy and tries to sell a monster speaker to a poor kid (skip to the 1:25 mark):
"Hey, what's it f#%king cost?!"
"That's the bitchin part about it, it don't matter! If you can't afford it, f#kin finance it!"
So classic.
Not too many have seen the Bruce Willis movie "The Last Boy Scout" but I happen to think he plays this part very well even if the movie was a bit on the poor side. Here is a good scene:
One of my new era favorite films is "Gangs of New York". An all star cast and of course the amazing Daniel Day Lewis as Bill the Butcher:
He is chilling in this role.
Rock Blogging
Now that we are armed with the Dominator MX-10 speakers, we should be ready to rock!
Last week I had tons of requests, this week, almost none! Lurker wanted to hear "Puff the Magic Dragon". As I did once do a post with the mythical Honali in the title, I felt I could not object:
Nifty tune.
Gawains emerged from his sadness bunker following the Dallas Cowboys loss last week to ask for "Gimme Three Steps" by Skynyrd:
Good tune.
My wife has been replaying the performance by Taylor Swift from the 2010 VMA award show of the song "Innocent". Everyone thinks it about Kanye West, but there is NO WAY a song this pretty and heart felt is about that donkey and his antics from last year. This song must have been written about a close friend, family member that is facing serious issues, in my opinion:
Again, I think it should be clear what this song is about. Very nice.
Need a little animal influence? How about The Animals and "House of the Rising Sun"?:
Is that "London Calling"? It must be! Here is The Clash:
Like it!
Two songs left.
Maybe we should go down "Gypsy Road" with Cinderella? Ok, lets go!:
Good trip!
Last call!
Replay, but it is my blog and I had this one on the mind all day so what can you do. Iron Maiden and "Revelations":
One of my favorites.
Have a good night.
8 comments:
"You have been warned. Repeatedly."
Damn straight they have GYSC.
Shouldn't be no 'shock-n-awe' when judgement day comes for your readers, only resignation to the fact that Skynet had finally become self-aware.
To whomever picked 'London Calling' by the Clash, excellent choice!
Watchtower,
good to see you!
The Clash was by email request and thus I cannot divulge that info!
GYSC
If you have time could you explain why you think silver might go to $24 oz?
(you probably put that in a post somewhere, but I can't think of it off the top of my head)
Is it because of the portfolio managers getting into it (it seems I read or heard that somewhere)?
And also, do you think it's still on track?
I haven't been in a sadness bunker. I've been in the vomitoriam.
That game made me physically ill. I've been slaving over my response to it for days. It has to put into the larger context of what it means to be a Cowboy and why the Redskins must be destroyed. Hopefully, I'll finish tonight.
Just in time to wake up and watch the Dallas Cowboys totally embarrass themselves and all real men everywhere, as they lose yet another winnable football game in most pathetic fashion. Jason Garrett is retarded. I won't say he's suffering from Downs Syndrome, because that might imply he knows how to gain a first down.
My friend Ween said he was going to send my to a psychiatrist. I told him, you can't send me to a psychiatrist. After one session with me, he'll need a psychiatrist.
By the way, I'm putting in my request for Friday Night Entertainment way early, as I don't expect to be entertained on Sunday and as a result will become increasingly deranged over the week.
Ozzy, "I Don't Wanna Stop."
gawains,
man take it easy on the boys! It was just one game. Ware is back this week and that should help.
Watchtower,
fundamenatlly I think silver is going higher over the long term, but that is not a one way road with no detours. A few weeks back the SLV chart showed a short term formation that usually resolves large either up or down. I figured I wanted to make a trade on it so I can try and make a few bucks this year. I hardly ever open ne position for as much as I did this time, but I did.
So far the breakout is intact, but I would have liked a close for silver over $21 on Friday to be even more comfortable here, but it looks like a breakout is under way. If it gets to $22 I will have a decision to make as I have made that my sell point. A run to $24 could happen and for sure I would sell my entire position then. As always this is not investment advice, just what I am doing. This sucker could open Monday morning at $15 the way this market has been behaving!
First, it wasn't just a game. It was against the Redskins.
Second, it was very winnable. You can't afford to lose games like that, not with this schedule. The games do not get easier.
Third, these Cowboys have no identity. They don't know who they are, what they're doing or where they're going. It's more like Jerry Jones playing twiddlywinks. He suffers from Magpie syndrome, likes bright, shiny things. Thus, he signs flashy players at the skill positions, but doesn't want to invest in the trenchmen who do the dirty work that moves the ball down the field. It's disgusting, and it's inexcusable.
Here in Texas, we take football, from pee wee to professional, very seriously. We don't have expectations, we have standards.
And the standard is winning. You either show up to play when the game is on the line, or you don't. And the game is on the line when the first whistle blows. If you're not mentally and physically prepared to play on the very first down, then forget about the last down, you've already lost.
What I saw last week was not Cowboys football. It wasn't even recognizable as football. It was a nauseating pretense to professional sport. I threw up.
And I'm still sick.
GYSC
Thanks!
>I think massive intervention and some market friendly machinations built a bridge from panic right over to hope.
Exactly. And guess what. That's not how the world works any more than a "yes we can" speech can make debt disappear.
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