Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Great Expectations

I am not sure how it keeps happening but I am late and out of time. Just one thought for the evening.

Great Expectations
This is a recycle of a good story out today, but just in case any of you maniacs are holding shorts going into weeks end I thought it worth it to warn you....

The President gave a speech today and mentioned to expect a "strong" jobs report on Friday. As with most presidents, not much gets into a speech that has not been put through the wringer so I would take him at his word. Not that this information is massaged or known before hand, it's just a wild guess on Obama's part.

Jesse feels the same:
Obama Gives Hint: Look for a Hot Jobs Number on Friday

So what would be "Hot"? Opinions vary, but mine would be in the 550k-650k range. I am a touch on low key end, but you can count on Zero Hedge to go for an all out mind blower:
Looking For A Fake 700,000 May Non-Farm Payroll Number
From the piece:
Retaining the same level of statistical adjustment, and the May NFP number will be at 700,000 before even one real full-time person has been added to the economy in the month of May!
Too funny, but then again so is the census distortion and the birth/death model so why not?

Honest question:
If the Friday jobs report came in at 1 Million jobs, would you believe it? Two million? Ten?
Sound off in the comments section.

Have a good night.
at

5 comments:

  1. GawainsGhostJune 2, 2010 at 8:35 PM

    At this point, I wouldn't trust any report or statistic coming out of the government, especially this administration.

    ReplyDelete
  2. EconomicDisconnectJune 2, 2010 at 8:57 PM

    Yeah, I think it will stay under 750k or a laugh factor comes into play, but overreaching is a late stage failure coping mechanism!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Kid DynamiteJune 3, 2010 at 11:08 AM

    i wanted to make sure you saw this from last week - i'm sure you did cause you read ZH (they wrote about it today):

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704032704575268462477689760.html?mod=loomia&loomia_si=t0:a16:g4:r3:c0:b0

    note, that's the second article Brett ARends wrote - the prior one was a bull case for gold. i think he's doing a good job illustrating the complexities, and i think everything he says in the above article is largely accurate, despite the fact that critics will bring up other points.

    i think there are also a lot of intelligent comments in the WSJ piece comment section.

    (and i own GLD, SLV, CEF)

    ReplyDelete
  4. sedintary stateJune 3, 2010 at 5:49 PM

    I wouldn't believe anything below 25 mil. snicker

    ReplyDelete
  5. EconomicDisconnectJune 3, 2010 at 6:10 PM

    KD,
    of course I saw that one. I am looking forward to part 3, but I think I have an inkling where he is gonna go.

    Sed,
    Snicker, it satisfies!

    ReplyDelete