It is going to rain here all day tomorrow so I am sure that will be plenty of fun. Tonight I am going o cover just a couple of small items and then crank up the fun-o-meter because I am wiped out and need a lift. With this Sunday's huge games in the NFL I will do a football preview post tomorrow.
I was Completely Wrong
In the last post I applied my amazing predictive powers to the release of today's NFP data. My exact words were:
Of course after today's numbers the template will have to be changed somewhat, and so the new release tomorrow will read (my prediction):
"Jobs losses of [225,000] surpassed Wall Street estimates for a job loss total of [250,000] adding further evidence that job market pressure is easing after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression."
You read it here first!
So what happened? I was wrong on both the size of the job losses (-263K!) and the news coverage.
Well, at least I took a shot. My crystal ball works better on any day that is not the first day of the month, and this I forgot. Sorry!
Still, it was amazing to see the media coverage unable to spin this expectations miss in any positive way. I expect much more from our financial press.
While Good for Inflation Expectations, Unemployment Tends to Dampen Spending
I loved this Zero Hedge headline about a David Rosenberg piece:
Rosenberg: "Welcome To The Latest New Paradigm - Jobless Prosperity"
That line is dripping with such heavy sarcasm I find myself getting misty eyed with appreciation.
Back to being serious. The job loss situation is applauded by many economists (at least they have a job) as being very friendly to inflation. No wage increase, no inflation and all that with a bag of chips. This of course allows interest rates to stay at the 0% which allows the US economy to run at all. While this looks great on a dry erase board, it sucks for the millions of people that would really like to have a job. Forget a good one, just a job.
Barry Ritholtz had an excellent chart up (I saw this a few places as well) that shows what may be coming down the line (click for larger view):
The last two recessions, 1990 and 2001, were followed by terrible job growth. I think you, the reader, can see that it will be years until we just get back all the jobs lost during this debacle. Of course people with no job and no money should not stop S&P 1400 in any way. This is the "New Economy" where jobs are optional.
Friday Foray into Fun
I am so ready for this weekend. The wife and I will be visiting a cat breeder to check out a possible addition to the family. I love cats and think I am ready for another one. Somebody has to teach our pug dog some manners!
Look Alikes
Queen Elizabeth I twins?:
and
see more Lolcats and funny pictures
Scary!
Film Clips
A little cinema to perhaps point you towards a rental or whatever it is people do these days (on demand, Netflix, etc).
Back when Eddie Murphy was funny and Nick Nolte was not drunk, they teamed up for the classic film "48 Hours". This fight scene between the two is an excellent example of a boxer vs a brawler. Of course, you have to try and avoid a brawler if he is twice your size! (warning, harsh language!):
In what may be the most moving segment from maybe the best film ever made, enjoy the telephone scene from "It's a Wonderful Life":
Gets me every time.
Rock Blogging
You know, a long time ago I stole music night from The Big Picture blog (he featured Jazz) and lately music night has become a staple across the blogosphere. I think this is great, music can really help your mood and outlook. With that in mind, let's try and get in weekend mode.
In honor of the coming show, Star Wars in Concert, enjoy the music (try to focus on the steadily higher and higher tones as the battle goes on, then clarinet for Vader's death) from the end of "Return of the Jedi":
This one fits under the "over a year" rule! Take a listen to Cheap Trick and their power ballad "The Flame":
The song that is most "embed disabled" has to be Europe's classic "The Final Countdown". I found a copy I am able to place here, no guarantees it stays for long:
Rocks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes, it has been overplayed. Yes, everyone tries to work it into their wedding, anniversary, funeral or whatever. Even after all that, Garth Brooks' ballad "The Dance" may be one of the best country songs of all time:
Last Call, Have Alcohol?
Ok, I have been a little on the easy side this evening. Maybe I am mellowing in my advanced age. But if David Letterman can still chase ladies and have success (got to be kidding!!), surely I can find a rock out tune!
Closing the show with a classic (I am getting old!) metal song. Enjoy the thunder of "Ride the Lightning" by Metallica:
Have a good night.
It's a Wonderful Life trivia.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.slate.com/id/1004242/
It's a Wonderful Life entered the public domain by accident. In 1946, when the movie was filmed, U.S. copyright protection lasted 28 years and could be renewed for another 28 years by filing some paperwork and paying a nominal fee. However, Republic Pictures, the original copyright owner and producer of Wonderful Life, neglected to renew the 1946 copyright in 1974. So, the film entered the public domain. Though a box office flop on release, it became immensely popular on television thanks to repeated showings: Stations programmed it heavily during the holidays, paying no royalties to its producers, and more than 100 distributors sold the movie on tape.
I like the movie and it was nominated for 5 Oscars (won none). That said, score one for clerical errors. One such error launched this movie into legendary status. It was once TV's version of a "free lunch".
In 1974 I was 10 years old. I can safely say that I've seen that movie MANY, MANY times. Some even by choice! Hahaha! ;)
Mark,
ReplyDeleteI really cannot believe that film was a flop!
In 1974, I was still in the planning stages for a birth in 76'. That film hits me every time.
Well, I've seen It's A Wonderful Life a couple of times. But I was raised on Gone With The Wind, The Wizard of Oz, and Casablanca. All produced in 1939, the golden era of Hollywood. And oh how far the mighty fallen between then and now.
ReplyDeleteBut the one movie I've seen more than any other is Monty Python and the Search for the Holy Grail. I've probably watched that movie over 400 times. And I bust a gut every time.
There have been several great comedies, Blazing Saddles, Young Frankenstein, Sherlock Holmes's Smarter Brother, Freebie and the Bean, The Meaning of Life, among others, but none of them make me laugh like The Search for the Holy Grail.
If I had to choose the best movie ever, it would be a toss up between Gone With the Wind, Casablanca, and the Godfather I and II. In the end though, I'd have to go with Gone With the Wind. There's something about that movie that just says it all.
"Rhett! Rhett! Don't go! Don't go! Where will I go? What will I do?"
"Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn."
Works for me.