Second Half Rebound Now Cancelled; Remember Who Got it Wrong

It was supposed to be more quiet here weather wise today, and very quiet tomorrow. As I type this there is thunder and lightning raging. The weather for tomorrow has now been changed to "unsettled" with flash storms. Not a good day to go fishing in a boat! Weather forecasters lately have been as accurate as all those "second half rebound" fools!

What Can Be Done When We Apply Ourselves

Non financial news can be very exciting as well! I have been following all of the Mars Phoenix Lander news as it has developed. The data is both exciting and amazing. Ice, real WATER based ice has been observed sublimating! This is incredible. Also, the geological makeup of Mars closely matches that of Earth, and not like the Moon at all. Very exciting. I recommend at least a weekly check in at this site: http://phoenix.lpl.arizona.edu/ to get updates on the progress.

Also, Voyager 2 a deep space probe has now crossed into the outer limits of our Sun's influence, the heliosheath. When compared with the same area that it's twin Voyager 1 has documented, it is clear that the local bubble is not spherical, but misshapen due to interstellar space magnetic fields. Again, just jaw dropping stuff. Use Wiki for Voyager program info, but here is a an idea where the Voyager and Pioneer probes are as of now:

Second Half Rebound Now Cancelled; Remember Who Got it Wrong

Now I want to be fair here. I understand that economic issues are complex and hard to see clearly in real time. There is getting something wrong because of outside events. There is missing a call because of bad data. It happens. Nobody can be expected to be perfecto. I have no gripe with missing things, you all know my calls are usually not the greatest in the near term.

Then there is what we have regarding the whole "second half rebound" crew from CNBC, the banking CEO's, many analysts, the FED heads, and other economists. These guys looked at pretty good data. They saw the structural issues facing housing. They are aware of the precarious footing most banks are on. They have all the same information a hack like me has. They were way off. They were as wrong as could be. How does this happen?

Glad you asked. The answer of course lies in what your prospective is and what you want to accomplish. I offer that the sunshine calls were not based so much on a clear thinking take on the situation, but on a hope based effort to influence psychology. The players did not want to scare anyone. They did not want the major problems to have a spotlight on them. By trying to make people feel that things were "on the mend" they hoped to keep the ship level until a fix could be found. Maybe I do not have too much disdain for this effort.

The problem lies in that it is now clear they were all full of it. So instead of anything productive, they have sacrificed their objectivity and credibility in the face of a full blown recession. It will be harder for people to "remain calm" if things get much worse when the people that should know things were cheering a happy tune so recently. In a debt based, credit expansion economy confidence is king. Now even regular types are asking what happened. Not a good spot.

It is at a time like this that you should write down or make mental notes of some of the worst offenders. Their inability to make the right call here cancels their value as a voice. Focus on the ones that had it right way ahead of time and you will be best prepared going forward. The blogroll is full of sound minds and advice so use it, I do.

Have a good night.