Vacation

The Bahamas for the next 8 days, see ya!

ATTENTION: Wall Street is Hiring Bagholders. Step Up!

How do you know you are Bearish and showing cognitive bias? How many Zero Hedge articles you reference in a work. Bullish? Anything by Joe Weisenthal on Business Insider.

Anyways, If I hear people "missed out" on the 145% rally from the lows I will scream. Only Wall Street types and morons think some dude with a job reacts in minutes or hours to market gyrations.

My chart (click for larger view):

We know, PE expansion due to low rates, etc.

The taunting, the smug dismissive attitude has to stop. No wonder normal folks do not do anything but steady invest and not watch. Main Street has seen enough of the baloney. Keep selling this uptrend (its not a 'rally' morons going on 4 years; if of course you missed the murder holes then bought the bottom which is easy) and no one is buying. Wall Street needs a bagholder that is not them (think 2000-2001; did YOU get bailed out? No? Too bad...) so buy in if you want.

Good luck.

I Will Be Saving This

Puzzling that faced with overwhelming evidence that former Fed head Alan Greenspan is a blathering idiot that blew 2 bubbles and caused massive damage, people now look to Ben Bernanke as some kind of hero:

I will be saving this one.

Guilty Pleasures: "The Undertaker"

Ok, so I used to LOVE the WWE (formally the WWF) and most especially the performer known as "The Undertaker". Fake? Yup. Silly? Maybe. AWESOME? Of course.

Enjoy this entrance at SummerSlam in 1994:

That just rocks!!!!!!!!!!

Lighters Up; Party Time

All is well and getting even better.

Because I am a "perma bear" or I don't philosophically empathize that unlimited handouts/bailouts/support for losers and their failed efforts constitute real accomplishment, I am an idiot. I have nothing to add. All anything is about, is making returns and money. I guess I missed that class. Too much fishing can be blamed as usual.

Stocks, bonds, real estate, anything but gold and silver is going to unknown highs and you have to buy. Buy now. In a thousand years of history no one but Benjamin Bernanke has figured out how to make a nirvana of free money with no consequence rain prosperity upon the masses. I tip my hat. Well done sir, well done.

I often think of this Kevin Depew Miyanville article
Five Things You Need to Know: Deflation is Here, What Next?

It's all become untethered. Emotion, momentum, and how far one can push it.

I think we see S&P 500 at 1800 in 6 months.

Is 1800 on the SPY overvalued? How can I know? There is no way to gauge it.

The restraints are off.

Have a good night.

It's Over

My family and me are thankfully fully removed from the happenings in Boston over the last 5 days. Many I know and care about have not been.

I think there is so much right now that is confusing and hard but let's all be thankful it's over.

All my prayers and best for the Boston/Cambridge area tonight.

J

Circular Logic and Bad Candles. A Place for Economic Disconnect?

A moment of your time if you please.

I scan a few sites, read the news, and see a few charts in a given week. What I have been seeing since QE unlimited went online has blown my mind and it's high time everyone admits something.

NO ONE KNOWS WTF IS GOING ON.

Now I don't want to name names and provide links but here is what I see from the distance view:

So just that I get it:
A. In the new year all the big money and even Mom and Pop were coming into the market full bore. Fuck bonds, gold, bitcoin, toilet paper, it was all stocks all the time. All that sideline money coming in and high rollers like Dalio, I mean, what's not to like?

B. Now this rally is so hated by the under-invested (ok one link) that missed the "rally" (when is an uptrend not a rally BTW?) that they play contrarian and say they are bearish while they really want in.

C. Everyone knows the sentiment survey is contrarian, so what to make of the highest bearish reading since 2009 (Remember? The world was ending and some shit) as stocks rocket higher?

As a scientist looking at this, you cannot have A and B together. If you are saying both you were wrong at one of the points. They are circular in logic and disingenuous.

Point C is a new era idea, that markets no longer reflect much of anything save positioning.

I was always more of a technical guy but scanning a few charts just shows me its about junk at this point. Check this (click for larger view):

Candle folks would call that a bearish engulfing on heavy volume (volume don't matter, I know) and it's negated almost immediately. I have about 40 of these highlighted over the last 2 months across many things. technicals are fucked now. Low volume paints are candle killers. Don't bother.

And at last, it's all about crushing shorts. Which if you have any idea about how large money manages risk is a silly notion. Maybe computer jockeys put their full account short a stock then get wiped out, but their $2000 is unlikely to make a career for anyone on the otherside. Not everyone that is uneasy or skeptical of the disconnect between the economy and equities is "fighting" the uptrend. You are on drugs if anyone is shorting this stuff.

In summation, I have no clue whats going on. Looking around, no one else does. What I will not accept is bull shit circular arguments. Maybe QE unlimited on steroids from Japan and the US Fed will make us all rich. Why they waited until now and not 50 years earlier is beyond me though. Anyone have an answer to that? Thought not, except maybe the Krugmonster.

It's ok if you don't know. Just say so. I have no idea.

On a more philosophical note, all this effort to force people into risk and markets by Japan and the US seems dangerous. I don't expect anyone that makes their living by it to speak up but its rotten and cruel.

Have a good night.