Economic Disconnect

Friday; It's What's for Dinner

2012-01-27T20:26:00.000-05:00

Boston metro saw some crazy heavy rain today. It has cleared out and will be almost 50 degrees into Tuesday?! February may be a payback month.

Market Observations
This week saw three major market positives:
-Blow out earnings from Apple (AAPL).
-The Fed, while not opening up QE 3 directly, made it clear they want to see some inflation even if they have no idea where the hell it shows up.
-Facebook has moved up their IPO offering, all the way to next week.
That is quite a trio of fuses to light an already explosive looking market.

Because I am a skeptic at heart, I would wonder why Facebook is rushing this move so much. After a huge rally, are they worried it might reverse? I have no idea but file it under "suspect".

That said, next week may provide one of those rare opportunities to get long and be very confident. Market players will make very sure that IPO has a nice running environment. Seeing the Internet momo plays skyrocket late day makes me confident a run higher is at hand. All to place an IPO everyone can dump to make money. Nice.

Friday Night Entertainment
Because you worked hard all week and deserve a break.

Missing Ships and People
I love real mystery or tales of extreme situations. Always have. The great site iO9 has a collection of 10 tales that they think could make great science fiction novels:
10 Real-Life Lost Voyages That Would Make Amazing Science Fiction Novels
A couple selections:
-Roman Ninth Legion
-Percy Fawcette, whom have covered before. This will get movie treatment and I think I saw Brad Pitt will star.

There were also some great articles on iO9 this week about "Mitochondrial Eve" and how that data backs up the idea that humans evolved one time in one place in Africa then spread across the globe. Here is a graphic with years ago estimated and routes of human migration:

Way cool. Full disclosure: I do not write for iO9, nor have any relationship with them other than I think the site rocks and makes scientific stuff more easy to understand for non-scientists.

Picture Pages
Visual cues.

Smile Rabbit!:

see more This is Photobomb

The old days:

see more Historic LOL
Never changes.

Film Clips
In case you need a movie idea.

Plenty of great horse centered films (Hidalgo, War Horse) but from my youth I always loved "The Black Stallion Returns" best of all:

If you have not seen the classic film "Used Cars" with Kurt Russell, well, you should:

The price (or rent?) is too damn high! Blame Bernanke.

Rock Blogging
Bringing the tunes since 2007.

Loyal reader Gawains was looking for some Steppenwolf and "Born to Be Wild" circa 1969 works!:

Good pick.

One of the hardest workers on charts and ideas on Twitter is G. Thomas Lackey and he puts so much effort in day and day out he needs a song break. He also knows engines and cars, which is cool beyond doubt. Here is Sublime and "Santeria":

You can follow him on Twitter via @gtlackey

My friend Arctic Gambino wanted The Black Keys and "Your Touch" and I have never heard this song, its wonderful! Bluesy and edgy:

LOVE IT!!! Follow him on Twitter as @a_bh_a

Not quite under the 1 year rule, but I was wanting some LA Guns and "Over the Edge":

I am in a sad mood so why not up the ante with "Love Hurts" from Nazareth:

Two songs to go.

Heavy time.Turn it up. White Zombie and "Thunder Kiss 65":

Last call.

Close the show with Heart and "Alone":

Fitting.

Have a good night.

Best of the Web Thursday

2012-01-26T19:41:00.001-05:00

Short post tonight.

Best of the Web Thursday
Markets saw some minimal losses today. Whether profit taking or other, it was needed if this is going to be a big run. I was so busy last night I had no time to really have a action list ready for today. It worked out as most names I have an eye on provided better entry points by day's end. I will do a full workup this weekend and be ready for next week.

Not one to leave you with no content though.

Why not check out the great Tumblr that Josh Brown (The Reformed Broker) and I co-author:
Things Apple is Worth More Than
Yes, it's back!

My man Jake of EconomPic had a great post on Leading Economic Indicators and some changes that were made. Please swing by and check it out, very important:
The New (And Improved) Leading Economic Indicators Shows Expansion

ChessNwine will keep you from getting too excited, long or short with a well thought out, reasoned take in his market recap for today:
Stock Market Recap 01/26/12

Robert Sinn (The Stock Sage) explains profit taking and has a great look at what subscribers get to see in his daily updates (Full disclosure, I am very happy to be one of the early adopters, excellent tool for trading) via the SMS service:
The Bulls Ring the Register

Good luck and remember it's Friday so get your requests in for Friday night.

Have a good night.

Reaction is Highly Exothermic

2012-01-25T20:04:00.000-05:00

I was busy the second part of the day as some equipment went crazy, so I am a bit pressed for time tonight to get caught up and get some other things done.

Reaction is Highly Exothermic
When I wrote last night's post I had a feeling that the lift in markets was not just do to some wishful thinking and people holding their breathe. I figured some kind of change was on the way that would be seen as positive. I had hoped perhaps FED head Bernanke may want to reel in expectations in the face of high oil and a rising stock market, but nothing like that happened today.

The Thermite Reaction was initiated.

The FED statement was fairly tame, and my first reaction was "is that it?". It was later in the press conference that Bernanke made it clear, more easing is on the way and the FED has even gone greenlight on targeting inflation at 2%. Calculated Risk has a great rundown and you can see it here:
Analysis: Bernanke Paves the Way for QE 3

I would argue that the FED has lost their minds here. They cannot control WHERE cash will flow when prompted by such a policy and there is sure to be serious ramifications from this action going forward. The FED is always behind a curve and inflation may run well ahead of target before unemployment drops by a large margin, if at all. Unemployment is a structural problem, not a cyclical one, but the FED is still stuck in the past. Nothing can be done to stop them. No one really wants to. Sad, but it is what it is.

As is, the last 3 weeks have reminded me of another time and that was in the summer of 2010. In August the FED opened the door to QE2 at the Jackson Hole meeting and markets ran from there all the way to the actual implementation. A small correction happened in November, but it was not large. That run went all the way into February 2011. The whole way many, myself included, thought the run up was nuts and made no sense. Here is a daily chart look:

A million things are different now of course, but I get the same market feel at this point.

Greece is small, and it will take Portugal a while to get bad. It's an election year so the money and promises will be flowing for all kinds of things. The push from the FED today could result in a great trading market environment lasting weeks to a few months.

My plan is to stick with individual stocks. Play the best set ups with the best patterns and observe price action that way. The indices may fluctuate but the 100% correlated market has been broken up. If this is a huge fake out, it will be clear as more and more names start to fail trades.

Sentiment is running very hot here, and that can usually be a contrarian indicator. But nothings ever never, and nothings ever always. When the animal spirits are set loose, calling them back proves a difficult task.

Have a good night.

Explosive Ingredients

2012-01-24T20:01:00.000-05:00

Amazingly it was 50 degrees here today and very sunny. It was almost like a spring day. Went for a walk and that was great in January.

Apple Blowout Earnings
Apple (AAPL) once again blew out the house on earnings. The numbers continue to be staggering, and growing. Even the most aggressive estimates I had seen were way off. 13 Billion in net income for past quarter and revenues grew to 46 Billion. You cannot even fathom such a thing.

Now it may be time to get re-acquainted with the excellent site, Things Apple is Worth More Than on Tumblr. I need to start making updates as Apple is now surging higher. Suggestions welcome anytime!

Explosive Ingredients

Thermite Reaction

Markets are running higher since mid December. Earnings have been good, and Apple just blew it up. Tomorrow the FED meets and will start their effort to be even more clear on their plans. It's an explosive mix.

Articles and rumors ran around in December that the FED was prepared to buy anywhere from 600 Billion to 1 Trillion more in mortgage backed securities in another round of QE. With markets running hot and oil still near $100 more QE may be a bit aggressive from the FED. That said measured inflation is still zero and there is Euro market drama in the wings. I do not discount that Boom Boom Bernanke may pull the trigger yet again in another effort to ignite animal spirits.

So is more FED buying priced in here or not? It's a close call, but I think there is a feeling that more help is on the way. At a minimum some kind of re-investment program like before (QE light) is in play. Anything else could set off a run higher that will have real legs. If the FED sticks with just keeping rates low until 2050 the market action from there is going to tell me a lot about how strong things are.

Have a good night.

Taking Profits, Cutting Losses

2012-01-23T19:22:00.000-05:00

No, I still hate Mondays.

New England Patriots in Rematch with New York Giants
The New York football Giants beat a very good San Francisco team that made two major fumble errors in the game. The New England Patriots overcame numerous mistakes as the Baltimore Ravens missed a game tying field goal at the end of regulation.

And now it's the big Superbowl rematch. Just unreal.

Taking Profits, Cutting Losses
Last Tuesday I bought some stocks after screening and things were looking good overall coming into Monday. I closed all four positions today for various reasons. Two will highlight in tonight's blog. The other two were INTU (+1.2%) and ANSS (+4%). Nothing wrong with either name and I will revisit INTU for long term account, just grabbing some profits.

I had high hopes for the position in NXTM. Friday the stock was hit and this morning it started off ugly and went down fast from there. Having stops in place is always important and I was stopped out fast at around $18 for a -1.1% loss on the trade. It got worse from there with a big drop all day long. The move down retraced most of the good move up I was seeing. While it has not violated the hammer print on 1/12/12 there are many names moving well now and I saw no reason to hang around on this one:

Know your exits.

My last trade was CRESY and this one really worked out well. Traded to plan and expectations. Have to love when that happens!:

Breaking out of the triangle I had a target of $13 on this name and it overshot that a bit this morning. I closed the trade out for +10.5%.

Overall, markets needed a break today and I may stay in cash until I see what Boom Boom Bernanke has to say on Wednesday. There is also AAPL earnings tomorrow that can really affect things. Overall 2012 has been way more constructive than the last months of 2011.

Have a good night.

Options Expired Today, but Friday is an Easy Roll

2012-01-20T21:06:00.000-05:00

It's Friday! It's NFL Championship Sunday! It's overwhelming to say the least.

Market Observations
I stayed long into the weekend, probably not the best idea ever. I recapped my stocks on Twitter so if you are not on there, you missed it.

One I want to point out has two MAJOR drawbacks so lets start there with CRESY:
-It's a smaller name at $650 million market cap and average daily volume runs at 150k shares a day.
-It's Argentinian, and I hate buying non-US stocks.
With those in mind it was strong look on an iBC screen I use and it has been bought very heavy in the later parts of the day. Volume was heavy today and a while back 3 million shares were bought up. Interesting:

Enough work!

Friday Night Entertainment
Another weekend is upon us.

Cowboy Record
I came across this great post over at Ptak Science Books which showed a record of an old era Cowboy and his experiences. It was a nice read, but a picture included just jumped out at me. I am assuming this is in New York and a Texas Cowboy is shown the huge city way long ago:

I was shocked how huge NYC was when I went and I am well aware of such things. How did this cowboy feel?

Fun with Images
The eyes see all. No kidding!

"Let me take you on a scenic cruise":

see more Very Demotivational

AWWW!:

see more Lolcats and funny pictures, and check out our Socially Awkward Penguin lolz!
Love the kitties!

Sports Clips
In honor of the huge football weekend I am running sports clips instead of film clips.

My man Robert Sinn (See his great blog here) was looking for an early Mike Tyson fight. The one that sprang to mind was Tyson vs Jesse Ferguson. In Troy, New York 1986 a young Tyson got a real test and answered big time in the 5th round, shattering Ferguson's nose and ending the fight (Ferguson would be DQ'd in 6th for holding). Skip to the 5:35 mark of this clip for the huge punches that finished it:

Body shot then uppercut with the right!

From last year, Kevin Harvick wins California and beat Johnson to do it. We were way short of title, but this was sweet:

NICE!

I love my Saints, but the 49ers, via Vernon Davis, were amazing in last weeks game. Catch all the angles in this video:

Hate it, but I do respect it.

Rock Blogging
Pump up the volume.

My good friend Jennifer Hillier has just moved in to a new place and is getting settled. After a huge move, its great to be in your own space. Let's go with Staind and "It's Been a While":

A great information source is on Twitter, @Arctic Gambino and he was looking for some White Stripes "7 Nation Army":

Like it.

Fellow 12631 member and twitter follow, @azulgrana_ wants Iron Maiden's classic "Run to the Hills" but I say only live:

Excellent request by Mr. Hebron (The Basis Point) and mad props for getting a StockTwits job! Ted Nugent and "Stranglehold":

Yes, thats sweet.

Two left.

HoobaStank and "The Reason":

For you.

Last call!

This song, if you give it a chance, can mean trading or writing or anything that you work hard for. Kenny Rogers with "She Believes in Me":

Have a good night.

Punched in the Nose, Now What?

2012-01-19T21:27:00.000-05:00

Had a busy but great day today. That's always good. 3 sleeps until NFL title games, are you ready?

Punched in the Nose, Now What?
Markets were getting that look like the old runs today, but some news on earnings may have been the monkey in the wrench (via John McClane in "Die Hard").

I am not going to recount all these things. Can the market take a punch here? This is why I have been long for the past week, to see what would happen after a low volume uptrend was met with some bad data.

So will the buyers step up, or will they run for the exits?

Will they be Tommy Bell, who lost a lopsided 15 round decision to the immortal Sugar Ray Robinson , taking a beating the whole way but standing strong, as Ray won the welterweight title but did not quit?:

or

Will the market and profit takers take one shot and collapse like Donald Curry against Mike McCallum? (skip to 1:00 mark):

We shall see.

Have a good night.

Why Would I Buy?

2012-01-18T20:04:00.000-05:00

This week is flying by as work continues to be extra busy. The AFC title game fast approaches.

Why Would I Buy?
I am going to skip the charts and related stuff. It's a difficult time right now to trade, not because things are NOT working but because things ARE working and that has not been seen in some time.

I opened long positions in 4 stocks today (NXTM, ANSS, CRESY, INTU; charts were up last night) even though there are a few indicators I follow that are flashing warning signs. Why would I do that?

Is this the cusp of a great new bull run to new highs? Is it different this time in regards to debt problems?

I really don't know. What I do know are two things.

One:
Over the past few weeks screens I have run have been returning winners. And I don't mean 1-3% movers here, I mean chunky grabs of over 7% and some big ones (holding time around 4-10 days). I have not seen that in a long time. I usually don't play some of the more aggressive stuff (solars, chinese burritos) so this move has included all kinds of stocks. Individual stock action has been null and void for some time. Now even as indices or sectors move down, other names and places are holding or being bought. I view this as favorable for trading individual names.

Two:
I have seen markets over the years run much further than I would have thought. Much further. Most of them have all started this very way. The December 2010 - early February 2011 run comes to mind. I don't know if this run will be as far or as large but it's moving now.

I think that if we are going to see a correction I will see that happening as my screens fail to return good looking set ups and my positions start to reverse and break down. It's harder for me to have a real feel for the tape if I am not in any positions at all. I am not over committed to the market here, but I am carrying enough spots to get exposure to the action.

Inflection points are very difficult to both see and accept. I was leaning pretty skeptical on this run but now I am more neutral. Of course that's also when tops form, the last few skeptics slide on over to optimistic. If I am wrong I imagine I am going to know in short order, my stops are set pretty tight. If I am right there could be a bunch more time to play good setups and trade this market. Right here, to me, it's worth a shot.

Have a good night.

Tuesday Charts

2012-01-17T19:36:00.000-05:00

I had a LONG day at work and got home a bit late because it was, wait for it, raining ever so slightly! As such a little pressed for time so just a few thoughts and some charts.

Market Observations
I had plans to open up some longs today. I saw the huge gap up and figured I would wait until around lunch to see how the market was going. I was doing tons of work anyways. Overall markets weakened as the day went on almost closing out the entire gap up open.

Things have gotten a little extended here and a pullback would be very welcome to firm up some support in the SPX 1280-1295 range. I will post charts of some names I am looking at below, but again single stocks acted better than the indices today and that is an important market dynamic change. Should even a near term top be formed, as long as the names I am looking at are moving, who cares?

It's a very heavy earnings week and the banks have been terrible so far. Should that carry over and infect markets on any other poor reports in other sectors things could get more dangerous. I think keeping an eye on the better moving stocks will alert you to that being the case.

Charts
Here are the names I had worked on in the 12631 Trading Room Sunday night and I posted them at that time. Most looking good here (a couple really moved already, dang it!) but I did not like today's candle on TTEK and will have to review that idea going forward. Click any chart for larger view.

NXTM:

ANSS:

MWIV:

CRESY:

INTU:

Still looking at these stocks and will see what the week brings.

Have a good night.

Mondays Still Stink in 2012

2012-01-16T19:27:00.000-05:00

I hate Mondays anyway, but today was a real mess. Having issues with several computers at work and no one seems to have any good ideas on how to fix them. Also was super busy all day. Add to this it was 5 degrees this morning and it's expected to snow/ice tomorrow morning, right at commute time, 2-3 inches. Yeah, that kind of start to week.

Market Observations
My idea that the indices had been showing signs of a top probably died last week. With all the downgrade news markets are not really reacting downward and that's another sign sentiment has changed. I still believe there is a bit too much hoping going on out there, but it's working.

I did a bunch of screens last night and in individual names there are plenty of attractive set ups. Here is one I found via iBC PPT screen, NXTM:

There is price history index wise to support the idea that a reasonable move up here is on the way, and it may take a little while.

In this S&P 500 chart I have annotated all the way back in late July and early August a few sessions where price was highly contested in a small range:

We all know price has memory, but does it run that far back? Sometimes, and the low volatility and tight price action as of late lends weight to a scenario where a slow grind up can happen. This will allow individual setups that can work time to get moving. So this may be the best swing trade environment since October. Started a while ago, but I missed it.

I really don't like index watching and it would be really refreshing to have a market of stocks here, not just the stock market all correlated and crap. I am looking to play some longs this week. You may want to sell all your longs at the open.....

Why Do People Bother?
While I was making dinner I clicked on a new Josh Brown post and I was disappointed in the topic. It sucks to work your butt off, provide the kind of content that has been missing for the regular investor on the street for years, interact with readers the whole way
and still get vitriol and insults from random people. From the article:

But none of that matters now. I guess I'm a target for misanthropes and those with too much time/anger on their hands. And it doesn't feel good.
In the past few weeks I've been assaulted online three times, having instigated none of it.

Hit the link for the full piece.

Josh does not need me or anyone to defend him, he can handle it. What annoys me is why do people even bother? If you want to sling insults and attack someone, what's the point? What can be gained?

Add to that, Josh is my friend. So this really makes me confused as I have seen how much he has helped me and many others over the years so this sort of thing makes me angry. Sadly, it's part of being out there and putting yourself and your work on display.

Have a good night.

Great Football Weekend

2012-01-15T21:14:00.000-05:00

What a show this weekend!

Great Football Weekend
Just some great action all weekend and maybe the best football game I have ever seen.

San Francisco 49ers 36, New Orleans Saints 32
My beloved Saints could not hold on to the football in the face of a brutal San Francisco defense. I have never seen so many great tackles and perfect hits as I did on Saturday. The Niners are well coached.

Even after 6 turnovers, the Saints grabbed the lead with just 1:30 to go or so. And then the 49ers made some magic happen. It was an epic tilt and I believe the best football game I have ever seen. I am disappointed the Saints lost, but you cannot take anything away from those Niners, tip of the hat.

New England Patriots 45, Denver Broncos 10
A nasty, angry, motivated Patriots team obliterated the Broncos. Tom Brady was in the zone and the game was over by the half. Even the defense looked reasonable!

Baltimore Ravens 20, Houston Texans 13
The Texans actually controlled this game, but made too many mistakes (recurring theme this weekend) to overcome. Ravens are so tough on defense, just a great unit.

New York Giants 37, Green Bay Packers 20
The big upset. Again, just too many fumbles and drops. Did anyone want to win this weekend? Bizarre. Giants D-line has that 2008 playoff run look.

Going to be a great Championship weekend.

US markets closed tomorrow, I am doing some work tonight and more tomorrow and will have commentary then.

Have a good night.

Friday has Been Upgraded to AAA

2012-01-13T21:26:00.000-05:00

HUGE Saturday tomorrow! Saints vs 49ers first up and then the Patriots face the Broncos in the night game. My two favorites on the same day.

I am feeling pretty good and getting better. Won't matter tomorrow I am going to be jacked up no matter what.

Market Observations
I sold TZA today for a round trip of 0%. The drop I had been expecting based on topping candles never really came about. At this point confidence that a lasting bottom has been formed and a longer rally is on the way is running very high. Even the debt downgrades today had little impact (so far) on sentiment and prices. My argument for a pull back was based on candles, and this chart shows that when they happen, reversals usually happen quickly:

This action has been 4 days of hanging around so I give it less weight at this point. If this is a major top it's going to catch plenty very unaware. As no one owns a stock overnight I guess it won't matter anyway.

Friday Night Entertainment
Providing the lighter side of things since 2007.

Long time readers know my severe addiction to Wikipedia. One of the fun things I do every day, you may want to write this down, is click the "on this date" bar at the bottom right. An entire list of cool historical events comes up and today had a good one.

In 1968 Johnny Cash performed at Folsom State Prison. You may have seen the film "Walk the Line" that dramatized Cash's life. It's a classic album and doing the show said plenty about Johnny Cash:

Thanks Wikipedia!

Old Truck
Saw an old truck on the highway on the drive home and I could not place the year, it was clearly a Chevy. A little image searching and bingo! It was a 1951 Chevrolet 3100 pick up:

Not as nice as this picture, but it was in good shape. Get that thing in for the winter!

Picture Pages
Time to get your markers and your pencils.

These girls are the last untapped market for Lululemon (LULU):

see more After 12

I don't think that's going to work:

see more Very Demotivational.
New Era. Comedy captures such things amazingly well I think

Film Clips
Rent them, stream them, or buy them in Hong Kong, but see them.

I loved S.E. Hinton's novel "The Outsiders" and I think the book was translated well into the film of the same name. All star cast and great performances. In this clip the greasers get ready for the final rumble and for all the lady readers there is eye candy, I am fair and balanced after all:

Revenge plus a great 50's tune? I am in! From "Christine", the death of Moochie:

Little bitty pretty one.....

Rock Blogging
The tunes are here.

My friend from Twitter @TSXSwingtrader is from Canadia so it's fitting for some Tom Cochrane and "Life is a Highway":

Thanks!

I had never heard this song and had no idea Ace was with another band, but my friend GtoToy sent this to me, Ace Frehley and "Rock Soldiers":

Wonderful! Thanks.

I had my 600th follower on Twitter tonight and while I believe quality is better than quantity it's amazing all the great people I get to interact with. Lucky #600 is @CanvasBTMargins and her request is "Someday" by The Strokes":

Good pick.

How about a live show of Faith No More and "Epic"?:

Sick.

Josh Brown was looking for a tune I know, and I hope he was not joking, here is Band of Horses with "The Marry Song":

Excellent selection.

If we can get back to a market that is not 100% correlated, this is what happens, "The Sultans of Swing" -trading via Dire Straits:

Last call! Grab a drink, a girl, the remote, whatever works.

Had it on many times, but I was thinking of it. "Joey" by Concrete Blonde:

Have a good night.

Famous Short Squeezes

2012-01-12T21:57:00.000-05:00

Still not 100%, but maybe 75% so its all good.

Market Observations
Not much has changed. Still have one position in TZA but should get stopped out tomorrow. Market and players are way too wild, but that can go on a long time. More on Sunday.

Famous Short Squeezes
2012 has been the year of the short squeezes so far. While short interest has fallen to multi-year lows in the indices, many names still have short positions that are out sized. When the shorts are gone, what happens? Not sure, but I am sure no one will be holding the bag.

Along those lines, here are some famous short squeezes both real and by extrapolation.

Bank of America:
The $5 level was such a sure thing and I think even my broke cousin had a short on. Two things, rules can be broken and nobody cares:

Why short when you can walk away? No idea.

Debacle? Yes that one.

VS.

I had forgotten this, but on Twitter @Reinman_MT was fast on the drop.
There was this:

Short sellers desperate to close their positions paid as much as 1,005 euros a share during the session following Sunday's news that there was less than 6 percent of VW voting stock still floating in the market.
At that price Volkswagen's voting stock was worth 296 billion euros ($370 billion), or more than the $343 billion market capitalization of Exxon Mobil

And it ended well:

Merckle's business interests came out on the wrong side of last year's short squeeze of Volkswagen. Rival Porsche silently cornered the market on Volkswagen shares, and when they revealed the extent of their stake, the price of Volkswagen stock shot up to levels that made it briefly the world's most valuable corporation. Many hedge funds who had bet against Volkswagen shares lost huge amounts of money, while Porsche made billions in profit.

Some comments from @Reinman_MT:
"I remember when this happened. Fascinated and horrified at the same time. Points out the risk of shorting very clearly. It's a tale that amateurs (and pros) who blindly short stocks should know. It's true guys; risk are unlimited."
Indeed. Thanks for the added value.

I had a few more but I am running out of gas. Still ill. Wanted to share those and know that short interest is at multi year lows so bag holders may not know who is who.

Have a good night.

Missed the Boat

2012-01-11T21:29:00.000-05:00

I am feeling better but it's hard to tell while on antihistamines all day and night if it's the real deal. Will lighten up tomorrow and see. Still tired, but at least I can see and I am not sneezing all the time. Take what you can get.

Missed the Boat
I found the perfect clip to sum up my sentiments on the start of 2012. Pay attention to the poor kid at the front of the Banana Boat here, as he falls off then waves sadly back to the departed boat:

Perfect.

I was set to go for 2012 and had some good ideas to use. From the Freestockcharts scans using the iBC PPT Monday 1-2-12 (Most posted in the 12631 trading room):

Of course the entry price for most of those (especially TPC) was long gone when the market gapped up on Tuesday the 3rd.

In my year end "thoughtful" posts I put out a major rule I wanted to stick to and that was not to chase stocks when they are gapping up and when the overall market is running on the overbought cycle. This one change would have saved me quite a few losers last year and made a real performance difference.

And in the first few days of 2012, looks like near term that's a stupid rule.

It's always hard to square a more short term trading strategy with a longer term mentality. I struggle with it all the time. One of the number one reasons I opened up a trading account was to shorten time frames and capture fast evolving moves. It's the old man in me that gets in the way sometimes.

I think markets are overextended here and sentiment is running almost at an apex of ebullience (Now that's a word! Nerdy gangsta). But the market has been tricky and has thrown in enough small drops and sideways movement to lull the VIXX to sleep and keep overbought signals from going red. Short squeezes are the rage and after this run short interest is going to be about absent I would think.

My plan is to get stopped out (around -3.5%, still a bit off) in my TZA position or close it by Friday should no meaningful correction happen. I want to feel better as this sinus thing is killing my energy level. I will do a complete homework night on Sunday and come into next week fresh and ready to use market conditions as they present themselves. This may mean grabbing on tight to the leaving boat, or watching it move on but it's going to be by my choice and the rules that I am comfortable with.

Have a good night.

At Some Point, Will Need a New Playbook

2012-01-10T19:21:00.000-05:00

Woke up this morning and my eyes were about swelled shut. Sinus pressure is bad! Had to take the day off and go the antihistamine route. Feeling a little better now.

At Some Point, Will Need a New Playbook

2012 has started very positive and markets are very happy. Across the board enticing setups are showing up and fear has taken a back seat. Sentiment is running heavily towards the bullish side and action has followed suit.

For the last 5 months of 2011 this has always been a spot to get skeptical and very light or even outright short. At some point this will change and the playbook will have to be updated with new ideas. chessNwine has an excellent recap video today that discusses what may happen going forward this year; a market that rewards the best set ups and stock picks instead of a mass risk on/risk off sort of thing. You can see the recap here.

Looking things over today I was faced with one of two decisions, open up some long positions even as things are extended here (the two indicators I follow Robert Sinn's SMS and the PPT Hybrid score) or use the same old play from the old playbook and take a shot at a short position. I chose the latter.

I bought TZA about 15 minutes before the market close. I did this for two reasons. One was the blog I wrote last night about the last gasp rally to S&P 500 1295 or so. The gap up today had that well in play. The second is that I am feeling pretty ill and it would be easier to manage one position than carry 2-4 positions especially around earnings season where you have to check across your stock buys industry in case there is news that affects your position.

In either case, it should be readily apparent what is going on should TZA continue to fall part here. If a sustained move up is on the way, I feel that there will be great room to the upside in many names and I can play it out going forward that way. Top picks are TTEK, DFS, and INTU.

Have a good night.

Final Push?

2012-01-09T19:29:00.000-05:00

I have a full blown sinus issue today. Bad thing is I think it's a viral cold so maybe not much I can do but treat it the best I can. Eyes are pouring water and my sinuses feel like they will explode any second. As such I cannot concentrate much so just a quick post.

Final Push?
I don't have much to add to last night's post. This rally is getting very extended here. Everything seems very forced here and tired. Short squeezes, while dramatic, are not solid base formers and a name like MSFT running wild is a puzzling sort of thing.

I could be wrong. This could be THE change and it's off to the races for a few months. Like I said, if that is so there will be plenty of time to play.

A reversal at a number as clear as 128.0 for the $SPY may be too easy. I think a low volume push up to about $SPY 129.2-$129.4 will be the near term top should it get there. In chart form:

There were many things going on underneath the surface of the market today that also give me pause here.

Have a good night.

Running a Little Hot

2012-01-08T19:41:00.000-05:00

As I write this the Denver Broncos are holding a 20-13 lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers. No idea if they can hang on, but it would be a huge upset if they do!

I am moving in slow motion because I may have overdone the beers during last nights New Orleans Saints second half explosion and win over the Detroit Lions.

Running a Little Hot
I have been pretty suspect of the rally last week. Besides low volume, figured that was going to happen, the names running the hardest were some of the more beat down names with heavy short interest. Overall, short interest is at multi month lows, and the air pocket from the Tuesday gap up is a real weakness for the market should any drop happen. There's not much underneath holding things up. Add to all that the level of bullishness is very high.

I wrote a post last Sunday where I discussed keeping an eye on "safe" companies and sectors should money start coming out of them. I wrote:

It's natural and expected that in a move to a more aggressive stance on the market, money will be pulled from defensives and put to chase after other assets.....
If prices are dropping for BOTH the defensives and the general markets then you have to respect that as a strong signal. In no way has that slight blip been confirmed, but you need to be aware of it.

Up to date comparison charts are in order.

RAI vs S&P 500:

Weakness in the tobacco company RAI for sure, but if the S&P is topping this is not that great a thing.

Utility Index XLU vs S&P 500:

Again, seeing the same thing.

Another item to watch is when Biotech as an industry gets hot, it can mean it's late in a uptrend cycle. Now there has been a ton of news that has been supportive of the sector so one has to keep that in mind. Here is the Nasdaq Biotech index (^NBI) against the Nasdaq for the last 6 months:

Again, it's looking a little late in the run here by this measure by how much the biotech index is outpacing the overall Nasdaq.

It's my belief that some kind of correction is very close. I could be wrong, and if I am these charts above will change to show that a longer rally is at hand supported by money movement.

Have a good night.

Full Faith and Credit of Friday Night

2012-01-06T21:37:00.000-05:00

First week back at work flew by. It does not even feel like a Friday to me. Let's see if I can fix that.

Market Observations
The market rally proved to be far more strong than I had thought it was going to be. I mentioned before that I missed my entries into some plays I wanted. Watched the whole week. As I have mentioned some things moved in new ways and old correlations left my view off center. Things could really be changing here, and the feel of the market was more like the 2010 run off the summer into the fall, just non stop upward motion. Will be worthwhile to monitor things early next week and be ready for anything.

Friday Night Entertainment
"Is this what they paid for? This is what they want!"- Jimmy Connors beating Krickstein at 1991 US Open

Poetry Corner
While I may seem like out of touch with the more artistic side of things, it's not so. I am a fan of all kinds of thing. One of my favorite poets was Edgar Arlington Robinson and his sad tale of a man who felt out of place in his own time is a classic. "Miniver Cheevy":
Miniver Cheevy, child of scorn,
Grew lean while he assailed the seasons;
He wept that he was ever born,
And he had reasons.

Miniver loved the days of old
When swords were bright and steeds were prancing;
The vision of a warrior bold
Would set him dancing.

Miniver sighed for what was not,
And dreamed, and rested from his labors;
He dreamed of Thebes and Camelot,
And Priam's neighbors.

Minever mourned the ripe renown
That made so many a name so fragrant;
He mourned Romance, now on the town,
And Art, a vagrant.

Minever loved the Medici,
Albeit he had never seen one;
He would have sinned incessantly
Could he have been one.

Miniver cursed the commonplace
And eyed a khaki suit with loathing;
He missed the mediæval grace
Of iron clothing.

Miniver scorned the gold he sought,
But sore annoyed was he without it;
Miniver thought, and thought, and thought,
And thought about it.

Miniver Cheevy, born too late,
Scratched his head and kept on thinking;
Miniver coughed, and called it fate,
And kept on drinking.

Picture Fun
It's worth a chuckle.

New Years kiss no matter what I guess:

see more After 12

I like McRibs but not this much:

see more epicfails

Film Clips
Some movie ideas for your selection.

I think Adam Sandler's finest film performance was in "Spanglish". I know, I am out of "ManTown" for that! I really believe it. The film itself is wonderful (though I don't enjoy getting hit on the head with PC stuff) and I submit the following scene as proof of the film's merit:

The great film "The Four Rooms" was punctuated by one of the most funny scenes I can remember. The Lighter bet scene:

Love it.

Rock Blogging
Musical melodies since 2007.

My friend BCLund was looking for The Damned song "Smash it Up" and I had never heard it before. I like it!:

Punk rocky, nice.

I was so very lucky to meet up with and become friends with Julian Hebron when I was in NYC last October. If you did not know, Julian is now on StockTwits (The Basis Point) and gives the best mortgage news out there. I would not have pegged him for a metal type, but he is and here is "Sleeping Giant" by Mastadon:

My favorite type of Friday night tip, great song and I had never heard it.

I love the Guns N' Roses song "Rocket Queen" and by the miracle of YouTube here is a great live version:

I am a sucker for Linda Ronstadt! Here is a nice show of "Blue Bayou":

Yeah, she's good.

The Interloper was looking for some Tom Waits so why not "Hold On":

Nice.

Ok, two songs left.

How about Huey Lewis and the News with "I Want a New Drug"?:

Nice.

Last call! Grab a drink, a girl or whatever you need.

Black Sabbath with "N.I.B":

Perfection.

Have a good night.

A Confusing Picture, Time to go Fishing

2012-01-05T21:59:00.000-05:00

The New Year has started off with a bang, but I am having trouble finding my moorings. Markets are running hot but so far missed my spots this week. Many correlations are breaking, new rotation is happening as things unfold. Low volume moves are making waves and it's hard to figure it all out. Those that can make moves during the day are killing it but I have been pressed busy at work.

I am confused and I don't have many answers. Honest.

This happens from time to time (more than you might think) and when it does, I like to go fishing. It clears my head and focuses my attention and I am better able to make heads and tails of things. It's January now. Not good.

What follows is a fishing pictorial. It's mostly for me, but I hope you see some things that appeal to you.

This bass is really small, almost as small as the spinner bait he went after:

Kayak fishing excitement.

A full on Wachusett Reservoir 4 pound smallmouth:

Quabbin anyone? Kid Dynamite has a written invitation anytime.

Smallmouths:

Exotic? How about peacock bass in Miami canals?:

Or Barracuda in Antigua?:

I feel more calm.

Have a good night.

The Winter River

2012-01-04T20:36:00.000-05:00

Not much to add to last nights post. Today's S&P 500 print is quite similar to the back to back prints on October 27 and 28th 2011. I missed my entries this week and will wait for resolution by weeks end of this move up one way or the other. My one major difference from the October set up is that back then everyone was really on board the bullish train where this time it's much more subdued. Maybe this will be "the" move up that finally breaks the old range. If it is, no need to be in a hurry.

On tap tonight is the story that explains why I hate the cold so much. Very fitting as we are having our first blast of cold temperatures right now.

The Winter River
I grew up in South Lowell. In Lowell there are two major rivers; the Merrimack and the Concord. The "Mighty" Merrimack is a large, swift river that is home to some of the best smallmouth fishing I know. It's great water and over the years has been cleaned up to an amazing degree.

I lived two blocks from the Concord. This is a medium river in size, and it moves very slow. Highly polluted and with heavy algae this river is home to monster carp and catfish.

In Junior High me and 3 other friends would always go out on weekend nights and find "stuff" to do. My Mom worked nights and I slept over a friend's house whose parents went away almost every weekend anyway. It used to be much colder when I was a kid, or at least I think so, because the Concord river would freeze up in deep winter quite a ways out from the banks. The middle usually stayed unfrozen. A visual, best I could find:

At that age you are getting to the point where you both want to impress girls and be more "ballsy" than your friends. It's not a good mix and I imagine safer now that the number of Facebook friends or Twitter followers for kids is social leverage and money, not actions.

So what we would do is walk out as far as possible to the center of the frozen river to see who would push it the furthest.

Writing that I can feel the set up but I can tell you at the time it was perfectly normal.

We had done it for years. The worst thing that ever happened was some loud cracking and some fast moving feet back to the bank. Until the last night I ever did it.

My friend J was always the most daring. No one really ever tried to beat him, he was nuts. That night he went out a ways and we all followed. He kept going and I followed for a bit. When I looked back my other two friends were a bit further back than made me comfortable so I stopped. J kept easing out and I turned around to go back to the bank. That's when the cracking started.

Multiple cracks and moving fast. Friend J started back fast towards us and I was about to take off when I had a thought. A cowardly thought and not some hero idea for the ages. I thought if something happened to J I would be in the kind of trouble you just don't get out of. Noble I know, but the truth. So I waited for him to get about to me before starting off for the bank. The fissures were faster. We went in the river.

I can't explain the cold. Maybe some of you crazies that do those winter swims know what it's like. If this happened now I am sure I would have a heart attack. It was shocking and terrifying. And I wanted OUT.

The edge of the bank ice was pretty close and I could just touch the river bottom with my feet so I made my way over. I got my arms up on the ice but I was very heavy with the winter coat, gloves, etc. I could not lift myself up onto the ice shelf. Friend J had made his way behind me but could do no better. We both tried again and the ice broke again. And this was the life saver.

Maybe enough distance had been gained, maybe there was a rock under the surface, but now I could get enough of a push with my legs to get up onto the ice shelf. And it held. J followed in the same spot and we were back on the ice closer to the bank. I was exhausted and the smoke that was my breathe pouring out into the night air looked like a chimney. The other two friends had grabbed branches (thanks guys!!!) but we trudged our way back to shore.

I lived maybe two short blocks away, but there was NO way I was going home like this. Brother and sisters would see and tell on me for sure. So we all walked the mile and a half to the friends house that we were staying at. It was most difficult. I cannot really describe it. Just wanted to get inside and get the crusting clothes off.

At the house neither of us could get the wet clothes off, it had frozen up in place and was too hard to pull off. Someone grabbed some kitchen shears and we cut off our pants (which could stand on their own!) and sweaters and T-shirts. The coats we were able to salvage. I remember thinking the skin over my knees was going to split it was so cold and tight. It took about 5 hours under blankets to finally feel normal again.

I never did that activity again, and to be honest I never really did much in the winter time ever again. I have hated the winter and the cold ever since. This is not all that helpful living here, but what can you do. Retire early in the Bahamas! That will work.

Have a good night.

Complicated by Gaps

2012-01-03T20:53:00.000-05:00

Winter has arrived in full force here this week. Single digits tonight and through to Friday. Knew it had to be coming, but still feels a bit shocking.

Complicated by Gaps
It was yet another gap up morning in markets today. I remarked via Twitter that:
"Gaps are like all in bets in no limit hold em; makes you decide whether you are playing the hand or not immediately. Difficult."

I wanted to cover two examples why gaps make trading more complicated (at least to me) and it's the very dynamic of facing an all in bet that fits in my mind.

Last night I did a full night of screening and homework inside the iBC trading room 12631. Even though markets had been a bit extended, I felt constructive when I found a bunch of good setups. And here is where gap up openings make things difficult.

I have traded the company TPC a few times over the last few months. It tends to be somewhat predictable and has several clearly defines areas of support and resistance. The stock was sitting right at the bottom of the channel it tends to trade in around $12.20-$12.30 and an entry here may be worth a run to $14 should markets hold up. This chart is after today (click any chart for larger view):

So there are two problems with the stock after today:
1-It went up 3.4% in a single day. It was up quite a bit more than that during the day as well. Nice run already and it was over as soon as the stock opened.
2-Now the candle printed today looks terrible, gap up and close on low of the day. Very "gravestone doji" like and gives me pause even though the location of the candle is not after a long uptrend.

So in this specific case the gap up turns a simple channel play into a confused mess.

A bunch of other items I worked on last night were not up so much that I would not buy them (SXC, TTEK, EOC, SNE). But I did not today. And that leads to the second part of gap frustration.

I made a point to highlight in my "Wills and Won't's" post that I would be aware of where the overall market was in a cycle when I was to open trades. Well, today's move up presents yet another ugly candle for many sectors. Most were running fairly overbought already. Here is a chart of the SPY with recent runaway gaps up highlighted:

Looking at the inverse fund for the S&P, SH, shows much the same thing on the downside:

These blow off moves have seen reversal for the last 5 months. Still want to wade into longs?

This brings me back to the no limit poker analogy. Right here you either have to call an all in and make your moves on the long side under the assumption that this will be "the" run higher that does not look back. Or you have to fold and either wait for confirmation of the move up or initiate a short trade against the overbought levels looking for reversal.

This could be a breakaway gap and a move higher could very well be on the way. I am suffering from the recency effect and have a respect for how nasty corrections have been from overbought levels for some time. For now I wait and watch and I have been gap blocked once again!

Have a good night.

Something to Keep in Mind as 2012 Starts

2012-01-01T20:35:00.001-05:00

New England Patriots go down 21-0 in the first quarter. Then they win 49-21. Just unreal. Home field throughout playoffs which is the ONLY way they have a chance at a Superbowl run with that defense they have on the field.

Something to Keep in Mind as 2012 Starts
The last 6 months of 2011 were a mess, not sure another way to describe it. Over that span some correlations really jumped out at me and watching those going forward is a key theme of mine.

In a post I did for the iBC Blogger network I looked at how cigarette company RAI was outperforming the SP 500 over the last 6 months. I remarked that I thought the distance between them on a graph was indicative of the risk on/risk off nature of things. Here is a up to date look of RAI vs the S&P 500 (6 month view):

The same can be seen in the Utilities sector and here is a 6 month comparison for the Utilities ETF XLU versus the S&P 500:

If there is going to be some kind of move up in the general markets, the gap between tobacco/utilities and the SPX will narrow. This does not mean that those safer sectors will drop big, it will just mean that they do not get bid up as hard as other risk is sought out.

Now for the twist that I want you to be aware of.

It's natural and expected that in a move to a more aggressive stance on the market, money will be pulled from defensives and put to chase after other assets. You know the names should that happen and the Nasdaq will lead the charge. The spread in the graphs above will tighten and maybe even cross given a strong enough move.

But one thing is worth watching in this dynamic.

Look to the far right of both graphs above again. Did you look close?

If prices are dropping for BOTH the defensives and the general markets then you have to respect that as a strong signal. In no way has that slight blip been confirmed, but you need to be aware of it.

2011 may be over but it was the year of "Max Pain" as Robert Sinn likes to call it. Should defensives and the markets keep dropping in unison it may get uncomfortable once again.

Added!: Cat update. That small kitty is now bigger than her bed!:

Have a good night.

Happy New Year!

2011-12-31T15:40:00.001-05:00

That eve once again is upon us.

Market Themes for 2012
After 2011, I am going to skip the "this will happen" sort of thing for 2012. I think it will be best to be ready with an open mind. It is likely several things will present themselves in the first 3 months of 2012 which will be important for the entire year. I want to be ready to see them.

As for my own ideas for the New Year there are three things I want to be more diligent about which would have made a big return difference in 2011:

-Allowing runners to run. It was reactive to jump out with a small to medium gain in a trade that was working. Not many, but several of these trades became longer term winners if held through a bit of volatility. Identifying the most sound moves up will extend gains.

-Focus on extreme sentiment inflection points and place the correct, forceful bet when the time comes. If the manic market continues, these spots may prove to be both somewhat common and very profitable.

-Do not trade so much. The first half of the year I would open my best 2-3 ideas, and then add on 3-5 other ones I felt had promise. I will work to stick to my best 3-6 ideas at a time (usually in short term account looking to play a 2 week resolution of a pattern or target) and give them the right amount of attention.

I feel very fortunate to have broadly expanded the readership of Economic Disconnect in 2011. I have to thank many people for all the links, ReTweets, and kind words that allowed this to happen. It's amazing really.

Let's keep it running in the New Year.

Happy New Year

In the New Year try to do one thing that I suggest; email, leave a comment on a blog, or talk to someone you have wanted to. Take a chance and you never know where that may lead you.

Evening Music
Going to load a few of my favorite songs of this year (I heard them for first time, maybe older than 2011) and a New Years Eve performance.

"Two of the Lucky Ones" by The Droge and Summers Blend:

Nightwish's tearfully pretty song "Sleeping Sun":

I tend to spend New Years right in my living room, its just safer and more fun. In 2006 The Bangles did a performance of "Hazy Shade of Winter" that just rocked the house:

Have a good night.

My Blog Roll and Why

2011-12-29T22:19:00.000-05:00

Getting right after my to do list from last post, updated blog roll and a few notes on why I stop in the same places first thing all the time.

There are some new additions and readers should know that Twitter has been a major factor for me. The idea and news flow happens so fast now, Twitter offers the best way to see it all happen.

My Blog Roll and Why
Last night a great series of posts on Twitter by Trader Stewie (covered below) made me really want to get my blog roll updated. Here it is, going by alphabetical order, it's just my thing.

All Star Charts
J.C. Parets is the real deal. A real professional with plenty of background. When he posts, I read and make notes. Besides, an excellent person when I met him as well.

The Big Picture
What can be said? Barry Ritholtz is one of the best minds out there and also does not gloss over the bullshit.

Business Insider
Look, this crew never sleeps. Breaking news? They are on it. Joe Weisenthal is a machine and the writers at the site are tireless in their efforts.

chessNwine
I used to trade quite a bit from 2001-2006. I moved away from it when I saw things were getting, well, bad. A link at The Reformed Broker brought me to the site of chessNwine and I am glad it did.

Chess is the best chartist I know. If you can see his operation in the IBC PPT and 12631 it's very special. The coolest cucumber I know in any market condition, he is my go to guy.

EconomPic
He sort of retired but now he's back. Revealing charts that make confusing data easy to get a handle on, Jake is a must read. Plus he likes good music.

FINVIZ
Best free charting options out there. The heat maps are great.

gtotoy
The song "Smooth Operator" was made early for this guy! He can do it all, and never has any bias. Blog is great, but to see GTO operate in real time on Twitter is something else. Huge metal music lover to boot.

Illusion of Prosperity
My friend Mark is one of the smartest people I know and he uses the medium of sarcasm for his work. The charts he comes up with you just will not see anywhere else and the insight he offers is top flight. Must read.

Jesse's Café Américain
A measured look at gold and silver as well as the money system. Always calm, always sharp.

Kid Dynamite
You might get a chicken story. You might get the best dress down from a former insider on arbitrage. You might get schooled on silver. Or maple syrup. In any case, you need to stop in.

Leigh Drogen
I don't really have the best grasp on new trends and new era ideas, I am an old school fart. Leigh has it all covered. So I make sure to stop in. Do you know Estimize?

Macro Story
My man Tony gets it. His macro view is worth a price of admission.

Market Anthropology
This man creeps me out with the uncanny reads on market direction. Just follow along, it's worth your while.

The Mess That Greenspan Made
An old school read, Tim is the best.

Mish
Macro can be important, and Mike has a great read.

No Excuses BBQ
You got to eat right? I take all my tips from this guy.

Pragmatic Capitalism
I don't agree with maybe 99% of the MMT thing, but I learn and think a lot. The comments section is great too.

Slope of Hope
If you find you are getting too giddy on the long side, Tim and the crew can fix that.

The Automatic Earth
Bearish? Yes. Spot on? Yes.

The Golden Truth
My man Dave knows metals.

The Reformed Broker
What can be said? Market smart, sharp as nails, speaks to and for plenty of us. And a good friend.

The Stock Sage
Strong where I am not (currencies and Europe) plus so many actionable ideas. One to watch, if you want returns.

Trader Stewie
As honest as they come. If you are not on Twitter you are missing a real show with live trades and market observations.

Zero Hedge
Still a must read for stories no one wants to talk about.

So many more, but I will feature those guys in blog posts in the future.

Have a good night.

Wills, Will Not's, and To Do's for 2012

2011-12-28T18:58:00.000-05:00

Everyone at the house and my Mom are super sick with a bad stomach bug. It's hydration duties here. I am feeling a bit tired and light headed off and on, but nothing too bad.

Market Operations
Last Thursday I bought the 3X short fund TZA. This was based on a sentiment indicator done by Robert Sinn, the SMS score. Things looked a bit poor as the rally went on, but limited volume and limited downside in TZA made me think the short idea would play out. Today was a solid correction to the downside and I closed the TZA trade for +4%. I think there could be some more weakness tomorrow but the Overbought cycle may be played out near term. We shall see.

As a side note, Robert will most likely be moving his market letter emails and SMS commentary to a paid service on his site. If you have been following along during the free trial you know the value his work provides. I will be subscribing in the New Year and this would only be the second paid service I have ever wanted to put my money down for (iBankCoin PPT and 12631 the other) so you know I feel there is actionable, quality work by Robert.

Wills, Will Not's, and To Do's for 2012
Some notes I have made over the past few weeks on my ideas for the New Year.

Will Nots
-I will not rule out taking a trade good traders put on because I don't want to "steal" their idea. There are some serious smart people out there and it's no crime to follow on an idea if I find the merit in it.
-I will not buy Chinese Burrito stocks. (easy)
-I will not buy Banks. (usually easy)
-I will not buy metal miners. (failed a few times this year)
-I will not take things too personal if I can in any way help it.
-I will not allow fear to keep me away from medical attention if I am in need. (summer intestine infection)
-I will not allow Twitter sniper's to make me jumpy in positions.
-I will not use leverage.

Wills
-I will pay more attention to sentiment/momentum indicators when buying positions. Maybe 10 times I bought names ready for a move up, but a quick check in with something like the iBC PPT hybrid score would have flashed caution. Getting shaken out quickly only to see the pattern you were looking for to resume is annoying. Costly in lost opportunity as well.
-I will get back to each and every person that asks me a question via any medium (blog, email, twitter).
-I will expand stop ranges to deal with volatility.
-I will ride winners until they prove it's all over, not just a hiccup.
-I will keep looking for hole in the wall sites that no one reads as some of the sharpest writers I know most don't even know about.
-I will work to improve my writing.
-I will be better about leaving comments on blogs.
-I will work to morph my longer term trading style with my short term style. One did far better than the other this year.

To Do's
-Update blogroll and improve site.
-Figure out if moving the blog to another medium has any merit.
-Lose weight
-Be ready for fishing season
-Be more concise with blog posts
-Go to The Big Picture Conference if it's held again
-Meet more people for lunch or dinner

Have a good night.

Merry Christmas Prime Rib

2011-12-25T16:39:00.000-05:00

Merry Christmas everyone! Enjoy the day and look forward to next year. Here is today's big cook.

8 pound prime rib. Nothing fancy, just sea salt, pepper, and rosemary rubbed roast. Light coating of olive oil. On the Big Steel Keg at 250 degrees for 4 hours. Perfection for the holiday.

Pre-cook:

About an hour into the cook:

Final 20 minutes:

Allow to rest for 20 minutes in foil. Put on the cutting board:

Perfectly done!:

I hope you all are having a great day.

Friday Night Holiday Festival

2011-12-23T21:30:00.000-05:00

It's almost Christmas!! Picked up a prime rib today for the Big Steel Keg smoker treatment on Sunday. Looks good, and there will be pictures.

My very best wishes for all the readers over the holiday and into the New Year. Great readers are what make me continue to work harder all the time. I appreciate it.

Market Observation
Not much to add. Still right where we were yesterday, only a little higher. No where near stopped out on the TZA position I have and will hold into next week.

The Megabucks Christmas
My last two Christmas tales were not meant to be sad. They were just memorable ones that I wrote about. How about a feel good story then?

One year when the Massachusetts Lottery came out with Megabucks, my parents won one of the smaller prizes! I think it was around $3000, which was monster money for our family. I believe it was 1985 but I get years mixed up sometimes. They won in November and I think they blew it all on Christmas presents. It was insane.

I got the biggest Transformer toy ever made, Omega Supreme:

And best of all, I got my first BMX bike, a Columbia Pro Am! I was able to find the exact bike with a picture search in Google:

I had a longer post in mind but no one can compete with Brian Lund's post from today The Greatest Gift I Have Ever Received so check that one out.

Friday Night Entertainment
Getting you ready for the big holiday weekend.

Fun with Pictures
Get you laughing.

Black Bart is in trouble now!:

see more epicfails

Scottish folded ear kitty!:

see more Lolcats and funny pictures, and check out our Socially Awkward Penguin lolz!

Film Clips
Holiday edition!

A classic comedy film that is set around Christmas time is "Better Off Dead". Sorry for the poor quality but you have to see the face squeezing CHRISTMAS part at the end:

A new era holiday classic is "Elf" and here is a great scene:

"You smell like beef and cheese, you don't smell like Santa", LOL

I never saw "It's a Wonderful Life" until high school and I think that was better because it meant all the more by then. Here is the Potter speech:

No equal. Nothing like that Stewart fellow.

Rock Blogging
Some tunes to send you on your way?

Got a request for "Call and Answer" by Barenaked Ladies and I am glad I did. Never heard it before and it's mighty fine:

Amazing tune, love it.

Twisted Sister and "Heavy Metal Christmas":

Ozzy tattoo! Nice!

This is great! Metallica's "Enter Sandman" to Christmas lights!:

Feeling a Pokemon seizure coming on.

On this holiday I would be wrong to not be in the mind of my dear friend, that I miss so much, Soleil. I miss you my friend and I miss all the help you gave me. Wish I could have helped you more. Florence and the Machine with a really nice acoustic version of "The Dog Days are Over":

Miss you.

Back in college a bunch of scientists formed a band. This tune rocks! I have zero music talent but I did help them set up. Who else had a T4 phage picture on the drumset? Man Bites Back and "Ghetto Starlight":

Last song! Grab a girl, a drink, or anything else!

My favorite by far Christmas song is Bob Seger's "Drummer Boy". Just so perfect:

Tear every time.

Have a good night.

The Long and Short of It

2011-12-22T18:04:00.000-05:00

I hope you are all getting ready for the Christmas weekend! I am going to have some company coming soon so just a few quick notes.

The Long and Short of It
I could run through more charts and all that, but we have been looking at the same things for a while. Today was an important day I believe, and any confirmation to the upside will be very constructive going forward. That said, markets are at key inflection points that have proven difficult for some time.

The Pros:
-S&P 500 close over 1230 this week
-S&P 500 close over 1250 today
-Headline danger has abated from Europe
-Low volume implies lack of selling pressure going forward

The Cons:
-S&P 500 at key resistance level
-Low volume could cause run up to rapidly deflate should volume return
-Overall bullish sentiment surge last two days

As I planned, I took a full position in TZA (3X bear fund) when the S&P 500 hit 1250 this morning for the second time. I am flat on the position even as the S&P closed at 1254. This is a pure overbought short term play, nothing more. Overall I am constructive on this market and more upside confirmation going forward will mean it's time to be playing the long side.

Have a good night.

A Rally Some Stocks Forgot

2011-12-21T20:35:00.001-05:00

It was my last day at the scientists job today until January 3rd! Can you say vacation? Seems I will be busy next couple of days so I don't know the posting ability. I imagine there will be Friday night blog though, so don't forget.

Also, if you know much about the benefits of Wordpress over Blogger let me know in the comments section.

A Rally Some Stocks Forgot
Like I said, I am off for a bit and I am not sure how active I can be in markets if I am running around doing stuff. That said, a few observations.

Tuesday's huge rally was on the usual suspects of low volume and select names and indices plays. The low volume I have come to terms with because so much money left stocks over the past 3 years maybe it is the new normal. In any case today started off weak, but after lunch another ramp up came in.

I have been long AMZN (as discussed last Wednesday) and I sold out today at breakeven. Why? After a great hammer print and a ripper rally day Amazon has not shown any energy or any inclination to go higher. Today, even as the general market reversed, AMZN was going the other way. Down (click any for larger look):

Not what I was looking for. The price has not violated the $171 mark but if it has not moved as yet, I was moving on.

I also sold out of Kinross Gold (KGC) at breakeven ($11.80) for the same reasons, just no lift a all over the past 4 trading days.

As markets near the same top they have been rejected from so many times, a tech sector blow up was in full force. Oracle (ORCL) came in light and had weak guidance and this firebombed the entire cloud/storage services sector today. Readers know I have traded Commvault Systems (CVLT) in both trading and long term account this year and look at the carnage today:

An entire range of gains gone in one day.

Maybe this is the big change for the market. New leaders will come forth and some old ones will fall. Maybe the year end rally will come. Lots of maybes.

I am staying light part out of a wait and see attitude and part I won't be able to actively trade into weeks end. Should the S&P 500 make it to 1250 tomorrow, I will be going index short in case it's going to be more of the same.

Have a good night.

Patience and the I.O.U Christmas

2011-12-20T20:25:00.000-05:00

I went out last night and had a great conversation, drinks, and food with the creator of Estimize, Leigh Drogen. Plenty of things to think about after that meet up, thanks for the great time!

Below is a quick market observation section and then another holiday memory themed post that can be useful as a lesson.

Market Observations
Yesterday's market action was very negative. In a post last week I highlighted a trading box range that I felt could serve as a slow built base. It really dropped out yesterday and I was thinking maybe just hang it up until after the holidays.

And then today happened.

A massive gap up kept swelling all day and now the S&P 500 is back inside the basing box and over 1230 again! You can't make this stuff up. Things turn so fast now, you just never know. Monster rallies like today only happen in BEAR markets AND at major inflection points. All of a sudden this throw away week becomes very important.

Patience and the I.O.U Christmas
A few years before the Christmas Branch Christmas I got a lesson in patience and money during the holiday season.

My Dad's railroad Union went on strike for a good part of the Fall into November so he had been out of work for weeks. My mother was in between jobs. The family van (deathtrap!) needed 4 new tires as the cords were showing on the old ones. It was a real strain on non-existent finances.

On Christmas morning we kids awoke and went out to the tree in the parlor (my parents never called it a living room) and there were no presents. None. No wrapped packages, no stockings, no bows. Empty. There were envelopes on the tree, each with our names on them. It was written in my mother's writing so it was not as cold as this example:

Time has worn away the exact wording, but as I recall the note explained that things were very hard right now and money was tight, so please accept the I.O.U until the Spring tax time. Tax time used to be like bonus time for my parents. I guess all the deductions for the kids and the mortgage added up. Maybe they scammed the IRS, I don't know!

My mom was really upset and tried to apologise to us. My dad disappeared into the basement workshop he had. I imagine he was having a few drinks (he had that problem). I was a bit angry at first but then it started to dawn at me this was about more than the presents. This was a big deal.

Money was important. As a kid if you have a quarter and some dimes, you got all you need. Parents have the five and ten dollar bills! How could there be money problems! That was all the money in the world. I knew that was not true now. And I knew it troubled my parents. It was a serious strain for them (they would divorce later on).

Things do not always happen when you want them to. Christmas without presents is still Christmas to an adult, but to a young kid it's just not. This would be a recurring theme, things just don't always happen right when you want them.

My mom spent a lot of time teaching me about planning for things after this Christmas. Planning ahead several steps to get to a place you want to go. It takes time, and it takes effort. It takes patience. I have often been accused of being too patient, that time does not seem to pressure me like it can others. I don't know, it is just the way I am.

I think about this lesson as I watch the market over the past 4 months. Save for a week or two here and there, it's just has not been a constructive market on the swing long side. I can wait.

Have a good night.

The Christmas Branch

2011-12-18T21:41:00.000-05:00

Seems Tebow time was cancelled today after the New England Patriots crushed the Denver Broncos. I saw Tebow seek out at least 10 Patriot players and congratulate them. That's real class and safe to say I am a fan now. That kid is tough and can lose without being a loser.

Looks to be a light week for me and instead of heavy market posts I will try to offer up some more philosophical takes on things.

The Christmas Branch

I have not thought about what I am going to write about in a long time.

I was in third grade. It was the start of December. Christmas was on the way. No better time for a kid, just none.

And then my Mom got an idea.

My mother is a "leaf peeper" (so annoying) and on a trip in the fall she found this white birch branch that captured her attention. I guess I should have known. She decided that this branch would be our Christmas tree for that year. It was no huge green tree but what did me and my two sisters and brother care? It was all about the presents!

My Mom was a huge coffee drinker and that year Maxwell House included these clear plastic ornaments in anticipation of the holiday season. My mother also bought a ton of glass icicles from a thrift store. The barren tree was dressed with these all white decorations. My Mom loved it! I guess it was artsy or what not. I thought it was a bit weak, but whatever.

And I think it would have been fine if some friends had not stopped over.

I forget what we were doing but 3 friends came over to hang out and they saw the new era work of art Christmas tree. A branch with plastic ornaments. It went from there.

The next day at school I noticed the pointing fingers and the laughs as I walked by. Obviously this was before I found beers so it made no sense, I had not made a fool of myself.

The next two weeks were a cacophony of "you are so poor" and "all you have for a tree is a branch". Even my teacher pulled me aside and asked me if things at home where OK. Can you imagine?

We were poor, more than I think many big players can realize (I will cover this in my next post) but this particular time it was by choice we had this tree. My mother loved it. She really did.

And so I never said a thing.

But I did fight. Oh, did I fight. I cleared out the 4th, 5th, and half the 6th graders before people just stopped crapping on me over that tree. I never had another fight until junior high after that, I took them all on. Even in high school the freaking tree would come up!

I love my mother, she has been a beacon and a source of strength for me for so long. I told her about this story maybe 8 years ago and she was crestfallen about it. She need not be. I know how much she loved that tree and I would protect her from the petty things that make the rounds at that age.

Is there a point here? I hope so.

Have a good night.

Fade the Week Friday

2011-12-16T21:01:00.000-05:00

I know I need a pick me up after this week. How about you?

Market Observations
Overall it was a week that was lacking in any real conviction. Most rally were tepid and also were faded for the most part. Between yesterday and today another credit agency downgrade parade made the rounds and things reversed in today's session violently.

That said, there are some pockets of promise. I am still long Amazon (AMZN) which has confirmed the hammer print on Friday. Yesterday I added a small position in Kinross Gold (KGC) (noted in 12631 trading room) which held up today as well. The best spin going forward I can think of is that just about all the downgrades are in. All the bad news has been hammered into the collective heads of everyone. Many have called it a day and moved on for the holidays. Perhaps this is the end of the "shocker" phase. Chart wise, single names are better looking that the indices but I would point out one small thing that may be nothing:

No move up since August has begun in such small steps. It has usually been monster jumps. Is this anything important? I am not sure, just noting the difference.

Anonymous
I don't want to spend much time on this. I judge content by the quality of the work and what I gain from it. I don't mind if I don't know a writers real name or what they look like. I have my own reasons for seeking to keep those things to myself. In any case, for the holiday season I will be using one of my favorite pictures of me as my new avatar on the blog and on Twitter. Long time readers have seen it before. The picture is of me fishing at the Quabbin Reservoir, and no it's still not a clear on shot!

Friday Night Entertainment
Some items to interest you and get the weekend off right.

Operation Plumbbob and Space Travel
(Note: Clearly any person of sound mind is against and aghast at the nuclear testing done by the United States in the 1950's-1960's and all the contamination it resulted in. It is still historical record and in that vein I discuss it here.)

Operation Plumbbob was a series of nuclear tests in 1957. One of the more exotic angles of the testing was using a nuclear detonation to shoot a 2000 pound metal plate out into space:

Before the test, experimental designer Dr. Brownlee had performed a highly approximate calculation that suggested that the nuclear explosion, combined with the specific design of the shaft, would accelerate the plate to six times escape velocity. The plate was never found, but Dr. Brownlee believes that the plate never left the atmosphere (it may even have been vaporized by compression heating of the atmosphere due to its high speed).

Ablation effects can be minimised using lubricants and the entire idea was incorporated into Project Orion, which in theory could travel interplanetary distances much faster than anything in existence today.

Picture Pages
Candy for the eyes.

Why I hate taking pictures in the Caribbean:

see more This is Photobomb

I have a fawn pug dog (Norman, he is 10 years old) and I knew of black pugs, but all white pugs? I had no idea:

Film Clips
Save Netflix and stream some videos!

Guilty pleasure, I love the film "Cannonball Run". It rocks, it's fun, I love it. Here is the final 13 minutes and there is too much fun stuff, cameo's, and comedy to recount:

I have featured this before, but with all the new viewers it's a must see. The Library scene from the Bradbury classic "Something Wicked this Way Comes". If you don't want to watch the whole thing, go to the 4:00 minute mark on:

Rock Blogging
Some tunes to start you on the right path for the weekend.

Loyal reader Watchtower (years!) was looking for some Judas Priest and "Hot Rockin" and I do so love metal:

Nice pick.

Twitter handle @CaseyLConley was working to be the 400th follower of mine and came away 1 away! Her song pick, "Open Book" by Cake:

I like that tune.

Number 400 was by @nascar_29er_fan and he was looking for Kid Rock's "Born Free":

I love metal, but I love plenty of country and bluegrass. A walking paradox. Anyway, please take a look at The Highwaymen with their signature song:

Just wonderful.

My man @bclund reminds me how cool "Live Wire" is by Motley Crue:

NICE!!

A little Alice Cooper? How about the newer hit "Poison"?:

Lips are venomous!

Last call! Grab a drink and a girl, or what ever else is nearby.

How about a little Hoobastank with "The Reason" to close the show?:

Have a good night.

The Road Ends the Same

2011-12-15T22:02:00.000-05:00

It can be a stretch at times to meld molecular or biological themes into a financial post, but here I go again.

Convergent Evolution:

Convergent evolution describes the acquisition of the same biological trait in unrelated lineages.

For the visual example, class Aves has no real relation to class Mammalia yet we see this:

and:

From the picture narrative:
These two distantly related predators share keen, night-time binocular vision,directional hearing (via mobile ears in the cat and asymmetric ear openings in the owl, sharp claws for prey capture, and
the ability to move silently.

It's the guy that does all his tests, gets all the certification. He has seen it all on the sell side and how to move it: the dot coms, the MBS, the IPO. Studied under a wonderful market operator. Maybe he turns his back on it, maybe it was too easy.

And the guy on the other end.

Seen all of the same, reversed. He has been busted 2 times in a decade. The information age has shown him how silly and careless he was. Real time quotes are at the finger and a broad base of information is readily available.

Time frames of "investing" go down. Everyone is a contrarian, but to whom? CNBC guests? When a new IPO gets rated as it should be, a "neutral", it is only because it is a known issue.

Convergent evolution says that through the same pressures diverse players can end up in the same place. I think this is something that needs more discussion.

Have a good night.

The Curious Incident of the Hammer in the Tape

2011-12-14T20:02:00.000-05:00

(Note: I borrowed from the title of this great book for this post; The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time)

It was another ugly day for stock markets. Gold and silver look like they are being unwound in size along with many commodities. Long term leaders like AAPL are having trouble finding any real footing. Various key levels have been breached seemingly without end. The swing from Santa Rally to years end to going to zero took about 3 days total.

It's dangerous right now. Crashes come from oversold conditions. The ONN/OFF switch may not get flipped one of these times.

And in all that, there was the curious incident of the hammer in the tape by Amazon (AMZN).

While 99% of the data flow I was watching was all about gold and silver, there were some other stuff. Mostly about either the Kardashians or year end predictions. One piece of news I saw that jumped out was from my friend @gapandyap (twitter handle) who was keeping an eye on some action in AMZN. I am glad he was.

From a low of $170 AMZN rallied into the close to $180. A tremendous intraday reversal. This kind of move results in the classic candle, "the hammer":

This kind of print can signal a strong trend reversal. I took a position in AMZN at $179 before market close..

The August low for AMZN was right there at $170. This level held again today. Should general market tenor improve I would expect a rally in this stock higher. The long tail of the hammer provides a no questions asked stop loss, $171. As the markets have been moving very fast I am getting in ahead of confirmation of this candle. This is my only long in trading account, the rest is cash. I like the defined risk/reward here should a bounce occur going into weeks end.

Have a good night.

A Look at Longer Term Charts

2011-12-13T21:13:00.000-05:00

The weekend cannot come fast enough!

Market Observations
It was perfect that I wrote a post last night defending market action as slowly basing and today that idea gets pushed to the very max. The S&P 500 closed below 1230 and that is a key number to me. The close was at the very bottom of the upper rectangle I charted last night. The very bottom. A lack of more help from the FED and plenty of rumors of bank downgrades made the session very nervous. Important end of week coming up.

A Look at Longer Term Charts
Tonight I wanted to post a bunch of weekly charts with the very minimum of commentary. For most shorter term trades I will ONLY use daily charts. I find them the most predictive in the near term. Weekly charts are better for trying to see long term trends as well as key moments and price points for any index or stock.

Terms:
20 MDA = GREEN Line
50 MDA = BLUE Line
200 MDA = YELLOW Line

Click on any chart for a larger view.

Gold (GLD)
Gold is coming down to the 50 which is around $1550 or so in price. No terrible damage as yet, but that is some pocket to the 200. (Disclosure: Long gold in long term account for many years):

Silver (SLV)
Silver has been badly damaged, dropping below both the 20 and the 50. What's worse is the 20 has crossed below the 50 which usually hints at more weakness ahead. Support is way down in the $23 range. (Disclosure: Long silver in long term account for many years):

SP 500
Coming down to the downward sloping 200. The cross of the 20 past the 50 is a bad sign and the recent touch of the 200 mirrors the action from 2008-2009. Very dangerous right here:

Nasdaq
The Nasdaq is showing the same 20 cross past the 50, but this weekly is no where near as dangerous as the SP 500:

MacDonalds (MCD)
This one does not seem to be moving like a stalwart but more like a Dot Com stock! I think this has to slow down, right? (Disclosure: Long MCD for many years in long term account):

Amazon (AMZN)
The ultimate retailer. I buy almost everything from this place. On the weekly the abruptness of the recent drop is only matched by the drop in late 2008. This is a favorite stock of many so the selling more disturbing. The 20 has just torqued down very hard:

Apple (AAPL)
The world's favorite stock is showing that discussion of it's death may be very premature. AAPL could drop to $360 before I would get worried:

Google (GOOG)
Plenty of eyes on this one as of late. Solid weekly chart here. (Disclosure: Long GOOG in long term account since 2008, and yes I held from $500 all the way to $250 and back):

Lululemon (LULU)
Note this is an expanded DAILY chart as most of the action for this name has come in recent years. This one is showing signs of serious trouble, breaking under the 200. LULU is now tracking the 20 lower and has been rejected there twice in a little over a week. Former high flyer will need a bid soon and hold $42:

It's a mixed bag. The SP 500 is the most concerning as far as general market direction near term. There is still plenty of strength in the market as well. What are you looking at going into years end?

Have a good night.

The Mean is Sensitive to Outliers

2011-12-12T21:04:00.000-05:00

Another Monday. Yeah, you know.

Market Operations
I was home on Friday and the huge rally felt wrong to me. Sentiment was flipping so bullish I was a bit surprised. Friday afternoon I bought small spots in FAZ and TZA to hold going into Monday. Today did not disappoint. I closed out FAZ +4% and TZA +5%. They both ran a bit higher during the day but I was glad to grab a few bucks out of the trades. You do not play with 3X type funds, you don't.

The Mean is Sensitive to Outliers
The most frustrating thing about markets since summer is that events happen both much faster than normal and slower. That makes no sense right? It does.

In statistics there is an axiom that the mean is sensitive to outliers. Simply, large outside deviations from the mean can cause disruptions to the data that may or may not be artifacts. We are seeing it plenty. Headline driven panic moves both to the buy side and sell side are clouding charts and technicals. Let's play pretend for a few minutes and see what we come up with.

Here is the chart I worked up for this post (click for larger view):

I submit that aside from all the drama of rips and dips, the S&P 500 hammered out a nice base during the early August to mid October span. It was gut wrenching, it was volatile, but the range held up on both sides.

The move to the highs of late October roughly matched the rectangle width to the upside (70 points). Basing occurred into mid November and then the big sell off. But do me a favor.

Ignore that drop.

Take out the headline driven drop in late November and look at the chart again. The S&P is basing well once more. The rectangle is smaller and the move up, should it come, looks like to the 1320 area.

This is my point. One cannot just ignore price moves, we all know price has memory. That said it's hard to ignore the patterns seen here. The pacing of the basing (tm) has been molasses slow while the spikes both lower and higher have come fast. Like I intimated above, there is the fast action driven by emotion and headlines and then there is the overall action which moves ahead slowly.

Keys for me are the 1230 level, and that the 20 MDA (green line) does not cross back below the 50 MDA (blue line). Should that hold up, it's still a constructive market. We have all become renters of positions or as I like to call it, owning adjacent timeshares, but the trend and pattern is holding up for a higher move.

But I am sure there will will more outliers. They will happen fast and slow down the trend. That said, a few steps back and things are not as dire as one may think watching every day action.

Have a good night.

Sunday Night

2011-12-11T18:41:00.000-05:00

It was a nice weekend. Did not really do too much, but that can be a good thing.

There is a general sense out there that markets are set up for the "Santa Clause" rally. Better bases and a lack of serious down moves (forget Thursday, was wiped out Friday) so close to major resistance has shifted the tenor of participants.

As for this market observer, I was very positive on things last week going into the Euro zone summit. Thursday threw me for a loop, as did Friday. Seems every time I get constructive on the market things fall apart. Will this time be different? Let's hope so.

I have two index shorts on in a small way and over 90% cash ready to work. I am doing screening tonight to get a better feel for individual names for the week. Maybe this will be the rally that sticks the landing.

Have a good night.

Thursday May Have Disappeared, but Friday Never Does

2011-12-09T20:53:00.000-05:00

Had a great day off and took care of a ton of things around the house. Got to watch a bit of market actions as well. Pro Tip: take a mental health day every now and then.

Missing Day in Markets
On Wednesday going into the two days of Euro news cycle the market was poised and ready to roll higher. Then Thursday happened, and things looked like a return to the bottom end of the trading channel. Today that's all over and gone, Thursday may well turn out to be a "just kidding!" kind of signal. I got stopped out of two small longs on Thursday. Looking over the markets today I entered into two small short positions because I think that things were a bit overdone. Full homework night Sunday night and I think a bunch of things look good to buy. Hence the small short for a bit of surprise protection. This market keeps one guessing.

Thursday May Have Disappeared, but Friday Never Does
A whole day may have gone missing, but the Friday Show never does.

Voyager 1 to Enter Interstellar Space
As if the space news could get any better, Voyager 1 is about to get free of the local environment where our Sun affects space, and into the open interstellar space. Some visual cues for what that means:

The space probe will be able to send limited data back until the year 2020.

Picture Pages
Some funnies for laughs.

I don't think this will end well in the snow:

see more epicfails

About right:

see more Very Demotivational

Film Clips
My friend Josh Brown, The Reformed broker, has been sick this week and it was a bit scary as he dropped off the map for a bit. Luckily Josh is doing ok, you can leave him a message on this post. One of the comments mentioned they were going to start a "save Ferris" movement and of course it put me in mind of that great film.

My favorite scene (of many) in "Ferris Bueller's Day Off" is the Abe Froman scene:

So classic.

I really like the new version of the film "Get Carter" and a great exchange happens at the 0:45 mark of this clip between Stallone and Rourke:

Rock Blogging
Melodies on free flow.

Reader Gawains was looking for some U2 and "Vertigo" from a Live 8 show in 2005 and this one is hot!:

Thanks!

I was in the mood for a little Bruce Springsteen and "Radio Nowhere" will do just fine:

How about "Rhythm of Love" from the Scorpions:

Who is that model in the video?

Arsenio Hall had some great shows when he was on. How about Anthrax doing "Only"?:

Ok two to go.

My Dad would always play this song last at night before going to bed. Kenny Rogers with "She Believes in Me":

Close the show with Robert Tepper's "No Easy Way Out" as it sums up the trading range:

Have a good night.

Critter Capture

2011-12-09T09:28:00.001-05:00

Taking a vacation day. Here is something different.

These are the motion camera best catches from last week in back yard woods. That fisher cat is still elusive! Click any for larger views.

Squirrels cleaning out bird feeder:

Coyote looking around:

Deer at night:

Close shot of deer in day, great picture!:

Have a good Friday. Usual post later tonight.

"Hit Puree'"

2011-12-08T22:04:00.000-05:00

Remember that tomorrow night is Friday Night, so get those requests in. Music, books, films, or whatever is a good time.

"Hit Puree'"
May I offer what this market feels like for the 99% of participants (key point at 1:19 mark):

It's a blender for sure.

Not much to say tonight. I was long two half positions going into today. Let me share an exchange with a good friend Robert Sinn on his site:
GYSC
In trading account I was found guilty of having two half positions long in names I thought would bounce IF the Euro folks got something done. I was wrong, and while I was not blind to the news I guess have just been so conditioned over past two years to expect some kind of bailout/agreement etc. Took two years to get that way, now I guess it will go the other way!
And Robert Sinn's response:
It seems that many market participants felt that they had to be long in front of the ECB announcement because they couldn't stand the thought of missing out on a QE/intervention rally. Today's market action was an expression of this disappointment, however, I think the S&P would have been down 5%+ if the market did not still have a great deal of hope in ECB intervention in the near future.
And he is right.

For anyone but the most nimble of traders this market is a mess. Everyone is frustrated. Nothing breaks to new lows, moves to highs are false. There is emotion pouring out and it's hard.

Know where you want to get. Know how. It's probably not now.

Have a good night.

Weaving in Traffic

2011-12-07T20:25:00.000-05:00

It's going to snow a little here tonight. Yeah, I am not happy about it.

It's all a wait and see right now going into weeks end. The Euro Summit is going down and who knows what is going to happen. Plenty of knee jerk reactions and headlines until something solid comes out. Until then I figured a more broad market based commentary was in order.

Weaving in Traffic

We have all been there. On a major highway and it's just loaded up with traffic. Moving at a crawl you know you are not going to get anywhere fast. When that happens I like to look around, take things in. There are two reactions I see that are both amusing and a total waste of time.

Furious Driver
This driver is honking. They are holding the wheel so tight you can see that the knuckles look ready to come out of the skin. They are swearing and yelling at themselves and other drivers. You can see the frustration. They are thinking "all I wanted to do was get to where I am going and this is in MY WAY!!".

The Weaver
The more annoying driver to me is the one that constantly risks accidents by weaving in and out of lanes, trying desperately to find that one lane that is moving. I think of that traffic scene in "Office Space" when I see this. For all the the juking and moving, they don't get anywhere any faster, it's a complete waste of time and effort.

So what does this have to do with anything financial?

The S&P 500 is about unchanged for the year.

It has been a difficult trading year, especially since August. The failed breakdown of early October. The failed breakout of late October. The return of the Euro headlines. It's a nasty snarl of traffic creating a jam in the way of much progress either short or long. (I know the faster traders are having a field day with this market and I enjoy watching them work, just not my trading style.)

So the questions are:
-Are you angry about the market? Are you screaming at the screen? At yourself?
-Are you changing your trading style every other day? Are you weaving long, then short at all the wrong times?

Know that no one is immune. I have felt the above to some degree at various times over the past six months.

One can always take the next exit ramp and get off the highway. An alternate route may provide an adaptable way forward. It's always fine to wait until the traffic dies down as well before getting back on the highway. You do not always have to be on the highway at the highest traffic times. Sooner or later, it's open road again.

Have a good night.

Failed Move Frustration

2011-12-06T20:28:00.000-05:00

At this time of year I just start counting off the days until holiday vacation. Anyone else do that?

Failed Move Frustration
Since August the markets have been jerked around. Violently. One of the more frustrating catalysts for traders has been the failed moves both below and above support. It's clear in the indices as a whole, and even worse in single names across many sectors. I have prepared this very scientific chart to try and capture reactions at various points over the past 4 months (click for larger view):

I want to talk about the two moves that have been the most disappointing, at least to me.

The Failed Breakdown of October 3
Busting through a very tested bottom, this looked for all the world like the big flush out. Had it really accelerated that would have been THE event that set up a solid run later on in my opinion. Not sure if it was technical buying there or if the Ghosts of V-Shaped Recoveries came into play on intervention hopes but the reversal of the breach was sudden and clear.

The Failed Breakout of October 31
I had outlined my reasons for a move up in markets around mid October. It was working well. As the top of the trading range loomed all eyes were focused. The S&P pierced 1265 and things looked poised to base and move higher. That was an ephemeral (told you I would work it in to a post!) belief as again, the reversal back down was pronounced.

And here we are again.

The failed moves are what keep me from really deploying much capital. Trading sentiment now has shrunk time frames to hours or maybe a few days at most. Technicals are all the rage. Thursday into Friday promises to be a very volatile environment as the news will be flowing fast and furious. Unless the Euro powers get something done, all the forecasts for much of anything are not going to amount to much. I opened two positions today that will surely get stopped out unless progress is made over the S&P 1260 range.

Have a good night.

Getting Gap Blocked!

2011-12-05T20:05:00.001-05:00

Another Monday in the books. I had meetings most of the day. I don't like Mondays.

S&P Reviews Ratings on Europe
I will cover the gap up open again that happened this morning more in the below section. Late in the day stocks weakened as a report came out that the ratings agency, S%P, was going to possibly downgrade the debt of up to 6 countries from the Eurozone. In this way Twitter is amazing because you could have seen it all happen in real time. After the close here was the headline (via Zero Hedge):
Rumor Meet News: S&P To Put All 17 Euro Nations On Downgrade Watch
So it was not 6, but 17!

I have two thoughts on this.

One is that S&P put language in the release that makes the possible downgrade very contingent on the results of the Euro summit on December 9th.

Two, this was certainly known by the big players and now the pressure on anyone not on board a total rescue agreement is enormous. A debt downgrade will kill most efforts to get a handle on the crisis.

Is this the big homerun setup market players have been hoping for? It certainly fits!

Getting Gap Blocked!
(Note: I posted this on the iBC Blogger Network and would appreciate if you would swing over there and drop me a vote and a comment. Twitter folks can RT for big points! See it here.)

I usually will do stock screening on a Sunday night to get set up for the week. I use the PPT and screens I built to look for ideas. I then discuss them with the Pelican Room in 12631. As I was screening it was becoming more and more clear that after the huge run over the past week, things needed to slow down. Various indicators (PPT Hybrid and others) were showing some caution was warranted. I went ahead with a full night of work anyway so that I would have some ideas should markets come in a bit.

Whenever I am looking to open positions I never want one thing: a gap up open. Gap ups distort pricing and can add a layer of noise to a pattern you may be looking at. Depending on your targets for a particular stock, a gap up can sometimes eat some or all of what you were looking to capture. Looking at my Twitter stream this morning I could see what was coming, a gap up open again.

I wait for the first half hour to pass when the market opens before I will get involved. When I took some time around 10am to look things over from my list, this was the first one I saw. CSOD (click charts for larger view):

CSOD came from a screen looking for buying accumulation. I liked the chart and was very interested. The stock opened up 15% or so and closed up 12% on the day. One day. Clearly there is something going on in this name and it's run away before I could do anything. Gap blocked!

Last night in 12631 I highlighted a pattern I like to play when I see it. The stock TXI printed a monster wick on massive volume on December 11. When this happens many times price will migrate back to the limits of the wick (both up side and downside) so when I saw this one I knew I was going to be interested. TXI after today:

The stock closed up 6.4% just today! Gap Blocked! To be fair, if the wick play holds this name could run up to around $35-$36 so I am still interested in this one.

As if trading in this market did not demand the very best execution already, gap up openings make things that much harder. Over the course of the day the big morning gains were given back by the indices (though not these stocks) which added to frustrations all around.

Have a good night.

The Times I Almost Lost a Finger

2011-12-03T17:42:00.000-05:00

I think last night Friday night blog was the most viewed of all time! Thanks to all for stopping in.

The Times I Almost Lost a Finger
Back when I was 20 I had to have all four of my wisdom teeth out. I was always getting sore throats and they got infected, it was nasty. They put me under for the procedure so I don't remember much, but the pain afterwards was terrible. The dentist prescribed the pain killer percocet for me and the day after I was glad to take one. It was great.

I had this piece of crap Hyundai Excel and the oil pan had been leaking. I had a new gasket ready so I figured I would change it. Two days after the dentist and armed with another percocet I went ahead with the job. There were about 12 bolts around the oil pan, it looked just like this one:

Two of the bolts were really stuck. I was giving it my all on the first one when it finally gave way. When it did my right hand smashed into the underside of the car, hard. It didn't really hurt. I saw a bit of blood but I figured if it did not hurt, what's the big deal? I just didn't care really, due to the pills. Just no feeling at all. The second bolt gave way very quickly, it must have known how serious I was. The whole thing took about two hours and I was glad when it was not leaking after I changed the oil.

I went inside to wash up, my hands were a oily mess. As I was washing them I turned my right hand up and looked.

My middle knuckle of my right hand index finger was almost totally exposed.

I sort of had a panic attack. I will not gross you out with all the details, but lets say seeing your knuckle work under the skin is not recommended. I did the best I could to disinfect it and get the flap of skin to go back in place. I went to the doctor but he was not willing to stitch it up due to how much time had passed, and he was concerned about infection. He said to me if it got infected, it would be deep and would be "an issue". I was terrified.

Long story short, it healed up well with no issues except a really bad scar. I also have never taken any pain killers of any sorts since then. Alcohol does not count!

The second time I almost lost a finger was not in the literal sense, but a trading sense. It happened last April.

I had been doing very well since the new year started when I began really trading shorter term again. Gains were good and things were going well. I got caught leaning very long when the Fukushima Disaster happened and that trimmed gains quite a bit. Later March and into April were not good times as my ideas and picks hit a cold streak. I was going on vacation the last week in April and I was in a state of not really caring. I had almost no positions and was re-thinking the whole thing.

All year I had been in and out of the stock KCG (Knight Capital Group). They had earnings coming up on April 20 and I had a gut feeling they were going to have good numbers after all the volatility of the spring. I was going to grab a usual sized spot the Monday before the 20th, but at that point even if my idea panned out (this was not chart based at all) what was the upside? I was in a state of ambivalence. To this day I cannot believe what I did.

I put 60% of my trading account in KCG before earnings.

And again, I was ambivalent. If it worked I would get ahead again. If it did not then I would take a break for a while after losing a finger on a trade. I did not even write about it (I mentioned a gamble way after) because I knew how stupid it was. Yes, your level headed, patient writer had a moment of crazy. It happens.

Long story short, KCG looked like it would collapse into earnings on Tuesday (yikes) but came out with a good report Wednesday and I cashed out for 6% gain. Not huge, but with that position size it was a big winner compared to usual 5%-8% part of account.

I went on vacation and I have been executing all my trades with the utmost discipline since that one trade. Looking at how the summer into fall went, maybe my lapse was a good thing because sticking to sound fundamental trading has saved my behind during the doldrums of credit crisis part 10 or which ever part we are on now.

I had not really thought about this again until I read this post by author BCLund:
Avoiding The Suicide Trade At All Costs
All three rules he went over brought the whole episode back into my mind. I won't do that ever again.

Have a good night.

Getting Dizzy on a Friday

2011-12-02T20:23:00.000-05:00

Friday at last! It has been a long week on many fronts. I need a break and maybe you do to. Finally saw the new roof tonight as I got home before dark, looks most excellent.

Thanks
In my last post (Late Night, and a Favor) in which I asked readers to check out my second iBankCoin Blogger Network submission (my two posts currently the two most viewed blogs on the network FWIW), I got a comment from a long time reader (4 year anniversary!) known as Watchtower. It's the kind of thing that really makes blogging worthwhile, and I am humbled by the kind words. Thank you, keep coming back!

Market Observations
It was an insane week. I am still digesting it all. I would say I am more constructive on the market here. I will get more specific over the weekend. Main take home point is that the meat of the big rally is intact and the doubt out there about is still large. This could still run higher than many think. Of course I write that and this weekend who knows what the headlines will be!

It would suck big time if Kevin Depew's latest article got lost in the shuffle of the week. I cannot tell you how important I think this post is so bookmark and spend a solid time reading it over this weekend:
Investing Is Back: What to Expect in 2012 and Beyond
Important things here.

Friday Night Entertainment
Fun can be free, right?

Wikipedia Plug
You all know I am a Wikipedia addict and will read over 100 articles a day if I get the chance. I have donated to the site for their fund drive and I would ask you give a few dollars to the single greatest resource on the web. I mean, where else can you learn all about Aerogel anyway?:

Nifty.

Fun with Images
In the words of Princess Leia, "Here they come!"

No worries ladies, I am drinking it up:

see more Very Demotivational

He ate a whole person?:

see more This is Photobomb

Film Clips
A few rental ideas.

With all the DEFCON furor this week, why not go with "Wargames" when DEFCON 1 came into play due to computer glitch:

Love that film.

I don't know what this movie is, but I think it's an early Jackie Chan film. Stumbled on it looking for vids tonight and this is hilarious:

WHAT????

Rock Blogging
Bringing the tunes since 2007.

Pink Floyd has always been an enigma to me. I like some of the songs a ton, other almost none. I do like "Wish You Were Here", no doubt about it and author Jennifer Hillier won the right to first song so here it is:

Who remembers Marcy Playground and "Sex and Candy" and whatever happened to them?:

My obsession with Nightwish continues! I have no idea what she is saying but this vocal performance by former lead vocal for the band Tarja Turunen (with Harus) of "Varpunen Jouluaamuna" is killing me as great tonight:

Angelic.

Ok, a little more randy? No problem. Why not Iron Maiden's ode to the R.A. Heinlein classic "Stranger in a Strange Land"? Live no less:

So great.

Two left.

I have not listened to a song by Florence and the Machine since a dear friend of mine died in September. I do love this song, "The Dog Days are Over" and live is the only way to go:

Yes.

Last call! Grab a girl, a drink, and whatever else you may need. Lighters up!

Sorry, but seemed most fitting to play a song by a band called Europe that had the vision to make a tune called "The Final Countdown":

Should have worked bond sales into that tune!

Have a good night.

Late Night, and a Favor

2011-12-01T22:18:00.000-05:00

Hey all.

Friday Night show is on, so get those requests in.

As a favor to me, I posted my market based section on iBankCoin tonight and if you would go and check it out I would thank you. Vote on it and leave a comment gets you my very special thanks. Here it is:
Smoking or Non-Smoking?

Have a good night.

Daisy Cutter Wednesday

2011-11-30T20:12:00.000-05:00

Insane day today as news came hot and heavy before the market open. I will discuss below, but I did want to take a second to say a few things. Much more so than on a blog where I think writers put things out that are more calm, Twitter allows for instant transmission of what people are thinking. Obviously this has great advantages, but along with that the avenue comes one where emotions and words can pour out pretty fast. That can be a bad thing at times. I saw some things today that disappointed me very much, and I gather my questioning the actions this morning of all the intervention going on was none too popular either. It is what it is. As always, my email is at the top right and I will discuss anything with anyone at anytime.

Daisy Cutter Wednesday
Major bombs dropped today on the market!

What's easy tonight is that I have already covered the helping hands lent to the markets. All the major Central Banks agreed to currency swap lines with open ended commitment. Of course this happened before on September 15, 2011:
Central banks to provide dollar liquidity

I dubbed this "The Unlimited Dollar Funding Machine" and covered what it meant in this post:
Hope is Not a Strategy, But is it Tradeable?
This move allows Euro banks access to basically free dollars and as they are ready to lend out into the economy (snark) this will help them in that effort. All in all, it buys time for them with less stress in finding overnight funding. It's possible a major bank was in serious trouble, but it matters little now.

Today the Bank of China also eased on money rates, first time in three years. The reason is probably that China is seeing inflation there fall below target and want to heat things up with loans for more ghost cities(snark). The key word is easing.

Economic data has started to come in not only better than expected (small beats meaningless to me), but significantly so. Home sales (pending is dangerous but ok), jobs and some PMI numbers have come in well over expectations.

And last, I discussed the final piece to the puzzle Monday night in the post:
Ghosts of V - Shaped Recoveries
If this is not the picture you want to set up a year end run into next year then it's just not going to happen.

Markets are extreme overbought here. Overbought can be worked off by meandering sideways for a bit, but with jobs numbers on Friday any beat may well push this higher again. Tough spot.

Robert Sinn, who is just killing it with his writing, hits the right notes after a day like today so please stop on by:
Regret

The Three Reactions to a Massive Rally
A little fun?

Already long:

Neutral/No spots:

Short, maybe since Friday:

Have a good night.

Tuesday Tour Around the Web

2011-11-29T20:31:00.000-05:00

I was at work early today then stayed late. A bit short on time and tired so it's a blogfest where I find all the best stuff from the web and compile it for you. Yes, you are welcome.

Josh Brown penned a missive today that brings up a great debate point along with a historical event:
In the Name of Corporate Profitability, 1781 and Today
You really need to read about the Zong Massacre. Here is the debate point:

There is a question now about whether or not productivity gains and the ability to "remain lean" will allow Corporate America to maintain these historic levels of profitability. I would answer that perhaps companies can keep this game going awhile longer, but at what cost to the country around them?

This is key. If companies were to hire more here the costs would eat away at margins huge and hence stock prices. The time lag for when people would gain by higher paying jobs may be a poor time for stocks. And as we know, stock prices matter more than anything else. Going to think on this one a bit.

Erik Swarts of Market Anthropology has a wonderful big picture post up that I really think is worth your time:
A Few Thoughts
He drops Wikipedia use in the article which will always grab my attention.

iBankCoin's ChessNwine has an important article up tonight and it's a must read for any market participant:
The Two Most Important and Least Discussed Aspect of Trading
Readers know that I am not a trader that relies on market returns for income. I don't know that I ever could do that. But whether you are trading for a living or trading to build wealth for the long term you have to be very aware of one thing: your bankroll. How you make decisions will be HEAVILY influenced if you "need" a certain thing to happen on a trade. The best way to need any result is to have too much money that you cannot lose at work. From Chess:

There are plenty of talented traders out there who blow up their accounts not because they got outmaneuvered by the guy (or robot) on the other side of their trade, but because they were simply not bankrolled properly and felt compelled to overtrade in poor market conditions to try to “pay the bills.” Well, I have news for you: If you need to trade to pay your electric bill and utilities, then you are in the wrong profession. Being properly bankrolled also gives you the peace of mind that you do not have to, in fact, trade all day, every day.

There is more in the article so take a look.

I don't know what is going on in Iran. A missile compound over there was clearly destroyed and news about that is very thin. Tensions have been rising in the area and we all know those losers are insane. Zero Hedge takes a look at Pimco's Oil price thinking should something happen:
Pimco's 4 "Iran Invasion" Oil Price Scenarios: From $140 To "Doomsday"

Not market related but the Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity is set to land at Gale Crater on Mars this summer! The new rover is a monster! Check out the section on how they plan to land it on the surface of Mars, very complicated:
Mars Science Laboratory
Cannot wait.

Have a good night.

Ghosts of V - Shaped Recoveries

2011-11-28T19:36:00.000-05:00

New roof is in progress. Getting ready for the winter. It should be done by tomorrow.

Ghosts of V - Shaped Recoveries
Markets moved substantially higher today after the Sunday rumors and new money programs were announced. It was your average panic buying party with about every single stock making large one day gains. After a steep drop what you want to see is firming action and basing, but the market never does what would be best. Another large gap opening just makes more of a mess of things to my eyes.

Robert Sinn has an excellent take on the wild day, and it's well worth a look:
The Low Volume Reset
Snippet:

The enormous macro uncertainty combined with the day to day market whipsaws have moved many investors/traders to the sidelines permanently. What will it take to bring them back into the game

Rather than hash out the action today I wanted to touch on a subject I think is always in play inside the heads of market players.

"Got a lot of past, Joe. Things accumulate."
-Andrew Cord in Highlander episode "Brothers in Arms"

Faced with debt downgrades, a slowing global economy, persistent high unemployment, and maybe 3 or 4 other concerns one may wonder why buyers line up to plow into a rally at the drop of a hat. The answer lies in the past. I think the ghosts of the past two V-shaped recoveries linger in the psyche of us all. The March 2009 ignition of a monster rally and August's 2010 blow away bottom cannot be forgotten. Chart form (weekly chart):

(don't worry about the lines, just showing the V shape!)

I believe that people can be haunted by memories, both good and bad. I know the V move is something I think about all the time. I cannot be the only one.

At a time when intervention by higher powers (not the spiritual kind!) is all but a sure thing, no one wants to miss the train when it's leaving the stimulus station. It can be very difficult to board later on after a longer run than you thought possible.

This also explains the market dynamic of everything goes up, or everything goes down. When things get going it's not going to matter too much what you have, but it will matter if you don't have anything. It's a nasty part of the market but I think it foolish to not acknowledge it.

How much do ghosts of V-Shaped recoveries factor into your thinking?

Have a good night.

Great Expectations

2011-11-27T20:05:00.000-05:00

Watched the New England Patriots just demolish the Philadelphia Eagles tonight. Sometimes I can almost forget how bad the Pats defense is, what a show.

Great Expectations
It's been strange to see so much fear about Euro zone debt woes when everyone single person on planet Earth knew, and I mean KNEW, some kind of work around was always going to happen. I guess the pressure needed to build enough to get the ECB and crew to make a little pee pee in their pants. Plenty of rumors out tonight about a silly big bailout package and it's party time freak out all over.

Business Insider has a rundown here:
Futures Are Exploding Higher After Weekend Talk Of Mega-Bailouts And Stability Pacts

Funny thing is it was some obscure Italian paper, La Stampa, that broke the news but catch this line:

The euro rose after Italian daily La Stampa said the International Monetary Fund is preparing a 600- billion euro ($794 billion) loan for Italy in case the debt crisis worsens, without saying where it got the information.

This is rich.

Adding fuel to the free money Trillion dollar roll is news the FED, wait for it, will buy another lump of mortgage paper:
Dealers See Fed Buying $545 Billion Mortgage Bonds in Third Ease

So I am supposed to say stuff like "trade what you see", "don't fight the FED", "the market is what the market is" or some other platitude but I just can't get into it. This is really stupid stuff.

I don't even want to discuss it tonight. More monkey games of throwing bananas. Over reaction and wasted efforts all around. Markets will never have fair pricing of much of anything (debt, credit, stocks, name it) with all the interventions coming all the time. It's all becoming false, a false market built on assumed caps and bailouts. I am getting bored, really.

New Outside the (Cardboard) Box Post
Long time readers may remember my friend Tom of the North and his wonderful work on his site. Tom has a new post up and it's pure genius. Required reading for Sunday night:
Supercommittee Reorients For Success
Sample to get you going on over there:

Washington, D.C. – As their budget cutting duties are winding down with the recently announced and widely anticipated stalemate, sources close to the process are reporting that the Congressional Supercommittee is in advanced negotiations with a large investment management company, possibly Black Rock, to form a new investment vehicle directly managed by the Supercommittee itself. Tentatively named the Supercommittee High Yield Terran Equity Fund (SHYTE Fund), the fund structure would allow its Supercommittee managers to invest in any global asset or asset class where a Supercommittee member/member of Congress/SHYTE Fund investment manager has the ability to directly influence the performance of the asset or asset class through legislative action, or has privileged access to information regarding a particular asset or asset class that would constitute an iron-clad trading advantage.

The whole article is excellent. Thanks Tom.

Have a good night.

Slow Saturday

2011-11-26T17:25:00.000-05:00

Having a nice quiet weekend after the holiday. Quiet can be very good.

I wrote a post for the iBankCoin Blogger Network today. Why not swing by and check it out? You can leave a comment there and vote from 1-5 stars. Here it is:
Why You Should be Trading this Market
The Blogger Network is a really cool feature. If you ever wanted to put an idea out there, this is the easiest way for it to be seen.

Reader Watchtower asked in the comments section about the recent yield blowouts of Italy, Spain and Belgium and how this relates to the Euro as a whole. I was thinking about that this morning and I tweeted the following idea:

Thing about bailouts/backstops/guarantees is market will make you show the whole hand; era of jawboning is over, it's show or go now.

I think that market is pressuring the ECB now very hard (Hello Germany!) to go the "unlimited" route. Once you start intervening the market players are going to push the envelope as far as possible. That's what is causing the yield jumps, it's not that Belgium will go bust any sooner or later than a month ago it's just pressure being placed via that avenue. Remember that CDS is now a serious question and without that protection (real or imagined as it is) yields are going higher. It's a risk premium.

Have a good night.

Black Friday Night Entertainment

2011-11-25T20:45:00.000-05:00

I hope you all dodged being hit with pepper spray across the country as you went Black Friday shopping. If you are not too tired from all the buying and not in jail, it's still a Friday night here at the blog!

Saw Twilight "Breaking Dawn part 1" today, it's no Oscar winner that's for sure.

Market Commentary
It's ugly. It's bad. That is all. More on Sunday.

Friday Night Entertainment
Let's see what I can find to interest you.

The Brinicle
Caught this over at Geekologie and it's well worth the time spent. When ultra salty melt water flows down into the ocean it is able to make an ice plume, a brinicle, all the way to the sea floor. The ice is fast developing and will kill anything that it traps in the process. Poor starfish:

Way beyond cool. Pun intended.

Fun with Images
It's easier this way.

Facebook beat down!:

see more epicfails

This pepper spray meme has gone too far now, it's everywhere:

see more epicfails

One more. Good beer:

see more After 12

Film Clips
Rental advice.

Wes Craven has made many films, most great but some turkey's. I can see where he wanted to go with "Deadly Friend", and it's worth a watch, but it's still a "so bad it's good" sort of flick. Here is the trailer:

One of my favorite lines: "But something tells me you're going to remember me this time" in "American Beauty":

New era classic.

Rock Blogging
Music for the masses.

Loyal reader Watchtower pinged me with a request for an 1980's tune that I have never heard. Try out Nik Kershaw and "Wouldn't It be Good":

Not bad.

I know I am going to inundate you with Nightwish's song "Sleeping Sun" but I think it one of the more beautiful songs I have ever heard. Via the wonders of YouTube here is a piano version of the song:

So pretty.

Some ideas from Twitter.

@seaside_elec was thinking something inspirational, like "Eye of the Tiger" from Survivor would help things turn around. You never know!:

From @TimWolfgang, try out Bright Eyes and "First Day of My Life":

Not bad at all.

From @29thHarvickfan, a little "Thunderstruck" by AC/DC but you know I going live at Donnington!:

Look at that crowd! That's why rock is the best. Hip hop lovers just want to be SEEN at a concert, would kill to be there. Real rock lovers will KILL to be there and don't care about being seen. Big difference.

Two left.

One of my top 10 songs, "The Boxer" by Simon and Garfunkel:

Last call! You should know what to do.

Closing the show with "You Can't Kill Rock and Roll" by Ozzy with Randy Rhoads. Finest guitar player I have ever heard:

Have a good night.

Happy Thanksgiving

2011-11-23T17:53:00.001-05:00

I am not going to offer anything about the markets. Today was a nasty washout sort of day. My post the other night calling the market "Damaged Goods" is holding up. The technical damage is bad, and the hit to confidence as I wrote last night is not helping. Great time to take a break and think over things.

All You Ever Wanted to Know About Turkey
I am hoping all the readers have a great Thanksgiving. I have plenty to be thankful for this year and I am sure you do too. Grab some turkey and some drinks and have a great time, as hard as that annoying member of the family makes it.

Now about Turkey.

Here are a bunch of random facts about Turkey I culled from the Wikipedia page. Enjoy!

-The Aztecs associated the turkey with their trickster god Tezcatlipoca, perhaps because of its humorous behavior
-The 16th-century English navigator William Strickland is generally credited with introducing the turkey into England
-Mature toms are too large to achieve natural fertilization without injuring the hens, so their semen is collected, and hens are inseminated artificially. Several hens can be inseminated from each collection, so fewer toms are needed (of course right?)
-A baby turkey is called a poult:

cute
-Unlike chicken, duck, and quail eggs, turkey eggs are not commonly sold as food due to the high demand for whole turkeys and lower output of eggs as compared with other fowl. The value of a single turkey egg is estimated to be about US $3.50 on the open market, substantially more than a carton of one dozen chicken eggs.

Turkey in Cinema?
Some turkey sightings in films.

-Of course, in "A Christmas Story" the turkey gets gobbled up by the dogs next door!
-In "Rocky I" when Rocky comes to take Adrian out, Pauly throws the turkey outside so she has no excuse not to go.
-In National Lampoons "Christmas Vacation" the overcooked turkey deflates upon cutting.

And of course, Adam Sandler's "Thanksgiving Song":

Enjoy the holiday.

Have a good night.

In the Long Shadows of Zero Responsibility

2011-11-22T19:54:00.000-05:00

I am off work until next Monday! Little mini-vacation for me. Always good to get the down time. Blog tonight may be a bit rant-like, so you have been warned.

In the Long Shadows of Zero Responsibility
Over the years I have read, been in touch with, and met all kinds of financial participants. Maybe I have been lucky, but the vast majority are great people. Hardworking people. Scary smart people. A common thread shared by all is that we know and accept that trading and investing is a risky endeavor, anyone telling you otherwise is not credible. It's no surprise some of the best operators have extensive backgrounds in game theory and may have played chess or poker at a high level. Over the past few years a troubling trend keeps bubbling up and I think is hovers like a shadow over the entire structure of the market.

Just what are the rules and who is responsible should they be broken?

And there is no answer.

It's not the point of this post to go over all the past chicanery of the past 3 years. The end analysis is the same. The rules are fluid and no one is responsible when whatever rules exist are broken.

We all like to joke about "Chinese Burrito" stocks that are shown to be total fakes. Sino Forest or Focus Media are the rage now (aside: if you trade this kind of junk you are not the manager a type like me will ever give their money to manage) and yet what is the vetting process for such things? How can they be rated "overweight" and then collapse into oblivion overnight? It's always "who could have known?'.

But what about Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) or a simple staple company like Diamond Foods (DMND)?

Ok, you may say that those are all specific fails that happen all the time. Maybe.

The Grand Poobah here is MF Global, which took money from clients to try and make it another day. This is so damaging to belief and confidence I don't think it can be known now the damage it will cause.

And it goes on and on.

QE? TARP? ECB funding the IMF to side step an issue over what is legal? CDS ruled invalid? Banning short selling? Flash crash cancelled trades? Bond markets that are a farce?

What are the rules? Are there any? When they are violated who is responsible? Nobody is of course. It's just smoothing out market pressures or what not. Things change overnight that have been sacrosanct and no one is responsible, it's all just the way things are. Or are now, this minute.

I think all would agree there are serious issues facing the markets now at the structural level. Nobody is doing anything about it. It's all a blameless, faceless Dance of the Macabre.

If the rules are bent or done away with it's not a market, it's the wild west. The signs are mounting up. Capital cannot and will not be deployed if it's a shrug shoulder and say "Dunno" kind of market going forward. We need adults to look past the next five minutes but it's all kids running the toy store now.

Have a good night.

Damaged Goods

2011-11-21T19:50:00.000-05:00

Home later than I wanted to be. Had to pick up car from the service station. 30k mile service for the car, costs a few bucks!

Damaged Goods
In almost a drive by shooting, the markets have gone from flying higher all of October to suffering bad damage over the past two weeks. The easiest way to see this is to go to the charts.

Daily for SPY:

It's clear the SPY has fallen out of the green ascending channel.

You may recall back at the start of October I traded in and out of both CVLT and NI. I cloned those positions in my long term account and here is how they are looking now (both closed out).

NI:

CVLT:

I don't mention longer term trades usually because I like to keep that close to the vest as not to have my thinking be affected by outside discussion. I am showing these two stocks because they were two of my strongest ideas for the October run that I was thinking would happen. You can see where the stocks violated the uptrend lines and they were dropped then. NI was dropped on 10/31 and CVLT, one of the better performers I have seen, was closed out on 11/18.

Things are very oversold now and a bounce higher is probably going to happen. I look over the big picture and I don't like what I am seeing.

Between the MF Global fraud, accounting issues at GMCR, and today's Chinese burrito news on FMCN there seems to be too much bullshit out there to be comfortable. I have been a proponent of the idea for run higher to year's end. I am backing off on that now. If the Euro weenies get their act together and Bernanke unveils some kind of new pony, maybe I would change my mind. At this point after the damage lately I think performance chasers may just start licking wounds and manage funds, not run blindly after a rally that has fizzled out.

The big problem is that charts are so damaged it will take time for them to set up. It's November 21st now which does not leave a ton of time. Any fast improvement will be suspect I believe. The way well supported moves up are being abandoned feels more dangerous to me than a vanilla correction. Just my 2 cents. Things probably go vertical from here on out the way this autumn has been.

Have a good night.

Images from The Star Wars Expanded Universe

2011-11-20T20:36:00.000-05:00

Sunday night! Crazy NASCAR race going on now, hoping for Tony Stewart to pull off winning another championship. (Update: Tony Stewart has won the NASCAR title with an unreal display of driving skill and balls. Very happy for him.)

Not doing homework tonight, short week and things will probably be all over the place market wise. I wanted to take a break and enjoy the holiday week. Only working Monday and Tuesday. Tell what your plans are in the comments section.

Images from The Star Wars Expanded Universe
It's always fun to put up some images from the Star Wars Expanded Universe. I just go the new Darth Revan book in last week and cannot wait to read it. The Expanded Universe is a rich and well developed arc of many stories. Star Wars is not just the 6 movies.

The ancestral home of the Sith was on the planet Korriban. The most sacred burial ground for Sith Lords was here, The Valley of the Dark Lords:

In the game "The Knights of the Old Republic" there is a really great ship called The Star Forge that takes energy from stars and makes an armada of ships and droids from the material it takes in. Novel idea:

Luke Skywalker's wife, Mara Jade, was actually killed off in a plot line! A picture of the funeral:

A Chiss Clawcraft:

The Mirakula blind force user, Visas Marr:

Lightsabers require Adegan Crystals to work and they are found on the planet IIlum. Sith prefer synthetic red crystals. Here is a shot of the Crystal Caves on that planet:

After her brother Jacen fell to the Darkside of the Force, Jaina Solo was forced to fight him to the death and did:

Anakin Skywalker vs Asajj Ventress. This fight is how Anakin gets the scar around his eye:

Have a good night.

F is for Friday and It's Good Enough for Me

2011-11-18T20:30:00.000-05:00

Ended up being a very long week. I only work Monday and Tuesday next week so that will be a nice break. Everyone have Thanksgiving plans?

Caution is Advised
Last night I featured charts for silver and oil. Both confirmed today with another move down. The gravestone doji for USO is very pronounced. The air is coming out of the monster October rally.

This could be yet another in a long line of fake and bakes to strip market players of their money. It's a mess. As such even the crew at Fusion are taking some exposure off:
Ritholtz - Jettisoning QQQs and Small Cap Growth
Josh Brown explains it's not a run for the exits, but a bit of caution is here after the technicals have soured quite a bit:
Media: Lightening Up as Technicals Get Mushy

This makes sense. Unless you can be right in front of your trading station, this market is very tough to be in unless your time horizon is long and you are comfortable with your portfolio. My long term accounts are fine, no complaints (not killing it by any means trust me) but I am keeping way back in trading account. It's just that tough.

F is for Friday and It's Good Enough for Me
It's time to relax and have some fun going into the weekend.

Water, Liquid Water on Jupiter's Moon Europa
Now this is not exactly news, but the information coming in is getting very strong that liquid water is beneath the ices of the Jovian moon Europa:
New Evidence for Liquid Water on Europa
It has long been thought that water is THE key for life away from Earth. Of course this assumes all life will be like life here, but it's a strong argument. Very exciting news, lets get some more spacecraft up there and check it out!

Fun with Safe for Work Pictures
As fun as it can be I guess.

Umm, the sign is all the same word for the ESPN red letters:

see more This is Photobomb

Ripley!:

see more Very Demotivational

Film Clips
Save NFLX and get a movie!

Ok, so not a movie but The Highlander series episode "End of Innocence" is a complex and deep presentation. In this clip from the 1:30 mark on, there is a wonderful exchange between MacLeod and Haresh Clay. I love the part at 2:50 as Clay talks about his now dead friend of 900 years:

Speaking of Europa, I have had the next clip up before but it's fitting. In the sequel 2010: The Year We Make Contact this scene shows Dave Bowman coming back to warn about the coming Jupiter event that will cause a new sun to rise and give life to the moon.....Europa!! The words "I understand. Look behind you" are chilling. Sorry for poor audio:

Nice.

Rock Blogging
The most fun you can have with your clothes on since 2007.

Well it's Friday so lets lead of with The Cure and, well, "Friday I'm in Love":

I do love Fridays.

I am stealing this one from my friend Jake of EconomPic. Moody, tough song by AWOLNation, "Sail":

That's not bad at all.

EPIC FIND! By now all must know I think the song "Sleeping Sun" by Nightwish may be the most beautiful thing I have ever heard. It's hard to get into my head like this song has. I found a great guitar follow cover on YouTube you have to hear. Skip to 2:02 mark to end, this is just amazing:

I will roll that all night.

How about an old school clip of The Go-Go's and "We Got the Beat"?:

Ok, two left!

Always loved Metallica's cover of "Whiskey in the Jar":

Last song, grab a drink and call your baby!:

Close the show with "Still of the Night" by Whitesnake:

Have a good night.

Charts for Consideration

2011-11-17T22:12:00.000-05:00

I actually spent the evening taking a huge break and having time that meant very much to me. Luckily I scored the Twitterverse for the best charts and so you get some things to think about.

Silver, readers know I am a huge fan, has been hijacked by MOMO types and has been a great tell for me on markets for some time. No one is better at showing this than Market Anthropology so I submit this chart for review on market direction (click for larger view):

Be warned.

Second up is a type of chart I hate to use, a 3X ETF but the candle is important and my man on Twitter @MarketPlunger brought it up. UCO, a 3X levered oil play:

Huge respect for my man, but that is a clear Gravestone Doji, and its not just in his charts. UCO via FinViz:

Here is USO, no leverage:

An ECB bazooka cannot be ruled out, but these charts are not funny.

Have a good night.

Wednesday Links

2011-11-16T20:48:00.001-05:00

Another rain storm here tonight so it's a late arrival. No real time for a finely crafted post, so here is a linkfest for review. Probably will not be a quiz.

Wednesday Links
Stuff well worth a look.

The Reformed Broker captures the struggle all players are dealing with right now:

Do the Push and Pull
Better than expected retail sales? But Belgian bond yields are shooting higher! Industrial Production and Capacity back at pre-crisis levels? But Spain is the next Italy which was the next Greece which was the next Iceland!

Tony of Macro Story has been on the credit markets better than most I read and tonight's recap looks at some currencies as well:
Market Recap Wednesday November 16, 2011

Mr. Phil Pearlman has an important take on what lies beneath the psychology of the market and I agree 100%:

The Markets and The Deep Layer of Chronic Diffuse Anxiety
Beneath the surface anxiety though, there is another deeper layer of anxiety that is unconscious and much more difficult to pin down. It is experienced as a general low grade chronic state of worry that does not seem to really be attached to any one concrete thing.

Now read the rest.

Robert Sinn, The Stock Sage, has some good observations on how this week has gone so far, fake outs and shake outs:
Bodybags

Leigh Drogen has an interesting take on how social media, largely Twitter, is changing things big time in many ways:

How To Make Friends and Find Investors Without Speaking To Anyone
A lot of people knock social media as ridiculous because people have online “friends” who they aren’t really friends with. In many cases this is true, but Twitter is different. It’s about sharing thoughts and experiences, so that people can get to know who you really are, and connect with you in the real world.
While Facebook is the 21st century Yellow Pages, Twitter is the 21st century telephone. Which one do you think is more important?

Interesting.

Have a good night.

Blind Trust Pledge

2011-11-15T20:09:00.000-05:00

The install testing should be all done at work so I can get going on a mountain of work that has piled up while I have been on this thing. Never ends.

What Passes for Monetary Policy
I have talked about the "recency effect" and how recent memories of experiences can color how one sees current and future events. We all do it, it's human nature. The ability for the FED to bail out markets since the fall of Long Term Capital Management (1998) makes the idea that they cannot work magic impossible to consider.

There is a school of thought out there that believes that to have a real recovery, monetary pressure should be pointed towards higher inflation targeting and/or targeting a specific GDP reading. Through devaluation by printing, money will lose value thus forcing people to buy stuff like crazy to use the money before it gets worse. I know, it's a dangerous game.

I think there are big issues with this. Up front the level of inflation that would grab normal people's attention is not 3% or 5% but higher. Say maybe 10%. How hard would a pump have to run to get there? Then it will just be withdrawn? Ok. Another issue is that most middle class and lower people just do not have much disposable income in the first place. Homes, health care, schools for kids, food, gas there is not much left. If money is losing value they are very unlikely to be buying second homes or stocking up on plasma TVs. I just do not see how this will result in anything sustainable.

The last concern may be the most important. You are only credible until you are not. It's hard to know where that line it, but when it's crossed it's crossed. No going back. Heavy thinkers of monetary policy always say the FED should get a little reckless with policy to pump inflation, but would they know when to stop? Could they? Today FED member Charles Evans had the following snippets that preface what I am talking about (Hat tip Trader Mark):

-"I’m advocating a more aggressive stance of monetary policy," he told CNBC. "I think we should be more aggressive and that frankly makes a lot of people nervous."
-"I just think that this is the time to stretch the boundaries a little bit more and take a few chances," he said.

After years of FED tweaking of the economy we are in our current state. Maybe they should just stop and not get anymore "creative". One can dream.

Blind Trust Pledge
On Sunday news show "60 Minutes" ran a story about insider trading laws and the US Congress. Short version, there are none. None. US Congress members by law can use whatever information they may see and trade on it without recourse. It is the law, nothing shady, all legal.

To be fair, I knew that. I think I read that years ago but never really believed it and did not spend much time thinking about it. I figured it made sense, they would do something like this. So why am I even bothering ow?

Perception and public mood. Sometimes forces align were attention will be channeled to the right thing and change can happen. This could be that time, the 60 Minutes show got a lot of mileage in the financial press, blogs, and social media. At a time when people are unemployed, have seen their portfolios all over the place, and have had enough with how the banking system conducts business in this country the environment is right to bring pressure to bear on Congress insider trading.

Clearly this needs to be resolved. It is beyond belief that Congress, who see all kinds of important information, can act on it. I don't really care that examples have been slow in coming in, it's happening. There should be no free pass for them. Simple as that. So what can be done?

I am actually having a tough time thinking of something. I was thinking of starting another site that will just bring up articles or suggestions to bring more attention to this matter. Maybe I will. For now I am leaning towards a two part pledge.

The first part will be to get a Blind Trust Pledge put in front of every candidate that runs for office. A blind trust (thanks Reformed Broker)is most often used by politicians to avoid this very conflict of interest. Their money is handled by another party and no direction is given for the asset placement. Imagine two candidates are running against each other and one has signed on to the Blind Trust Pledge and the other has not? How is that going to go over? It will be an instant attack angle.

Second part is for you to take the pledge that you will not vote for any candidate that has not taken the Blind Trust Pledge. And you have to stick to it. No donations until they accept it.

This is pretty simple. Politicians love stuff like this. They can put a little badge on their websites saying "Proud of My Blind Trust Pledge". The pressure could be enormous if this becomes a campaign issue, you will not want to run without taking the pledge if your opponent has done so.

All it takes is the word to spread and maybe one or two Congress members with integrity to start talking about this. It could happen and I hope it does.

Have a good night.

Take a Pass on Monday

2011-11-14T18:35:00.001-05:00

Well that football game was a big surprise, yes? I cannot believe the Patriots pulled it off.

I was up way late last night. I forgot today was more testing of the new robotic lab equipment and I was stuck doing that all day today. As such I am tired and I don't feel very well tonight so no post from me. I am going to read to get caught up and take care of a few things. Like buying the Nightwish album, that song is totally stuck in my head now.

Have a good night.

Sunday with Nightwish

2011-11-13T20:10:00.001-05:00

Hey all!

Busy tonight doing market homework and trying not to get too upset over Patriots vs. Jets as we get our butts kicked.

By totally random chance I came across a song that is just hitting me as one of the more beautiful things I have ever heard. So happy I lucked into it.

Please enjoy the band Nightwish and "Sleeping Sun":

Just awestruck.

Have a good night.

Tales from Working on the Railroad

2011-11-12T17:44:00.000-05:00

In blogging you just never know. Sometimes you spend a huge amount of time working on a post and when you are done you think "This is freaking brilliant". You post it and not a single person in the world seems to read it or comment. Other times you post something you think may not be all that interesting to people and it strikes a chord.

Such was the case from Thursday's post Odd Jobs Over the Years which has turned into one of the most read Economic Disconnect articles since 2007.

I got a bunch of comments and some emails about the railroad work in particular. I have plenty of those stories, did it for a long time. Here are three that jump out at me.

Urinating Icicles
My dad got call one night in February about a stuck switch in Boston that needed a look. He called me around 10pm and asked if I wanted to go help him with the job. I said sure thing, come on over and pick me up. We got there around 11pm and it was cold out. I mean, frigid. I don't know what the temp was, no thermometer, but it was hard to breathe.

We got out of the truck and worked over the stuck switch. We applied heavy grease to it and got it working again. There were two trains waiting for a track change on that switch so as soon as we got it done they started off using it. Took about 20 minutes and I was so cold I don't think I have ever been that cold again.

I had to pee before we went back so I went alongside the truck, unzipped and that was a shocker of cold as well! As I was going the urine was turning into icicles as it hit the ground! That's how cold it was! I could hear the things clinking as they hit the ground. It was surreal. Funny thing it's not even this experience why I hate the cold so much, but that's another tale.

My Hands get Stuck
Freshman year in High School my dad got a contract to build a new rail line from a plastics factory to link up with a nearby access line. It was not long, maybe 200 feet. My father's crew had set most of it up during the week and finish up was for the weekend I was to work. One problem; all the materials were brand new.

Now usually rail jobs use all old stuff like ties, plates, spikes, and rails. It is way cheaper and the stuff lasts forever anyway. But no, the company wanted all new stuff. What's the big deal? New railroad ties are hard as rocks. They are soaked in a sort of oil/tar that makes them weather proof. When new you have to drill the holes for the spikes to hold the rails. The holes are so rigid it takes 3X the effort to get a spike fully hammered in and seated. 6 of us worked all weekend and got it done, but the effort required was huge. My hands were killing me from holding the hammer and all the pounding and I was having trouble getting them to relax from staying the same position as while holding the hammer.

And they were like that Monday morning! My hands were frozen in the exact position as when I was using the spike hammer. I could not get them to relax. I took the day off from school because I could not do anything. By that evening they started to move again, but it was another day until I could hold a pen.

The Race
One summer I was working with my dad laying new rails again. Luckily this was all well used materials so no drama like in the last story. I was 15 and I was heavy into boxing then and in the best shape of my life. I was feeling strong, on top of the world, and so after lunch I walked up to my dad and said "I am going to take you this time".

That was a age old railroad challenge. It meant a race to fully spike down 1 length of rail before the other guy. Rails are about 16 feet long (hard to remember) and there are about 8 ties in that distance with 8 spikes each. So it is a 64 spike race. My dad was rock solid and had a strength that was hard to quantify, but I felt I could take him this time.

I focused in, layed out all my spikes next to the plates and got psyched up. My dad was just looking at me and said "You ready?". Yup, and we were off.

I was flying but of course you have to make sure it's done correct as a check after the race will disqualify you if you missed a plate or a spike is not fully seated. I was really swinging steel and I zoned out, could not hear anything. I had tunnel vision. About half way across I started really breathing hard and I started to see some stars in my vision near the end. I was going all out and almost passing out.

I got to the last spike, seated it down, collapsed and started to dry heave as I was feeling sick. I look up and my dad was leaning on his hammer smoking a parliament. I think it took me 15 minutes to get it done and it seems he was somehow able to get his done in 10 minutes! The rest of the crew were just watching and laughing at the end. I had lost again to the old man.

I caught my breathe and walked up to my dad. I shook his hand and said "Well, I will get you next time or some time in the future!". My dad looked at me and grinned and said "I don't think you will be doing this much longer, your mom tells me the grades you are getting in school".

It was a really sad moment. It was sad because I knew he was right. Even then my mind was very active and I was very serious about becoming a scientist. It was sad because working with my dad had become almost the only time we spent together. I think we worked maybe 10 more times on smaller jobs until the end of high school. By then my dad's drinking roblem was getting very bad and he was not taking many contract side jobs. Two years into College he died. And I never beat him in a spiking race.

Have a good night.

Full Moon Friday

2011-11-11T20:50:00.000-05:00

Special thoughts go out to all those that serve every day. On Veteran's Day they deserve the respect of everyone. All my best to all those that have done, and currently do, difficult things every day for all of us. Come home soon.

Chasing or Dodging Rolling Boulders
I was very constructive on the market to start the week and opened up some positions on Tuesday while market was correcting down. Wednesday came and I got flushed out of all of them for losses. It was not the loss that bugs me, its the recency effect. We have seen reasonable flush outs turn into routs that can eat a position alive. Still gun shy I guess and with tight stops. The only stock I will be revisiting is TPC which I think is a real runner going forward. Seems one is always chasing a boulder uphill and then trying to dodge it when it reverses just as we get close.

In summary it can be like Jungle Hunt and trying to get up the hill:

Friday Night Entertainment
After another wild week we can all use a break. Well I can for sure.

Picture Pages
Because cheap laughs are priceless.

No plans for the weekend? Two words: Martini Night:

see more Historic LOL

This might work, just move the sign:

see more Very Demotivational
That is an instant classic.

Robot Takeover of Humanity will Start with a Good Idea
I have harped on the coming of the Robopocalypse for years. Recent news shows how it will start, with a seemingly good idea. Here you go:
Honda's new ASIMO robot can now pour you a drink all on its own
So this is great, the robot can pour you a beer, you get a bit tippy, and the uncanny valley is crossed that much easier! Next up for Asimo; the robot that can fix the brakes on your car. Yeah right, total set up.

The Ghost Ship Baychimo
I have a great fondness for lost ship tales and one of the better ones is of the Swedish steamer Baychimo Abandoned in 1931 after being trapped in pack ice near Barrow Alaska she was presumed sunk. From Wikipedia, a sample:

The Baychimo did not sink, however, and over the next several decades there were numerous sightings of the ship. People managed to board her several times, but each time they were either unequipped to salvage the ship or driven away again by bad weather. The last recorded sighting of the Baychimo was by a group of Inuit in 1969, 38 years after she was abandoned.

Great list of sightings as well. Enjoy.

Film Clips
Save NFLX by streaming or renting a d film why don't ya. And buy some GMCR while you are at it.

It's no secret I think Kevin Costner's "Wyatt Earp" far surpasses the poorly done equivalent film, "Tombstone". Seems I am in the minority, but after seeing this scene when Wyatt meets Doc Holliday (Dennis Quaid, one of best performances) you may change your mind. Skip to the 2:00 minute mark and enjoy (sorry for bad quality):

Scott Glenn has starred in two of my favorite unknown films, what are the odds on that? Anyways, special bonus tonight, two more picks that you should see then submit a review to me. I will publish them.

From 1983, "The Keep":

From 1982, "The Challenge":

Great scene after this fight keeps this movie in my mind.

Rock Blogging
The tunes have been coming since 2007. 4 years, really?

Leading off the night, as is tradition here since forever, is a birthday shout out to my friend @MarketPlunger:

By request of birthday boy, enjoy Bob Marley and "Burnin and Lootin":

Enjoy your birthday my friend.

Another Twitter friend is @CoderTrader. If you don't know him, you are missing out. Had a brake fiasco tonight, but after a killer week nailing the market a request is in full order. Tim McGraw and "My Next 30 Years":

All my best.

I have mentioned him before, but when reader G first stopped in in 2007 he was, well G. Shortly after this blog started he went for the Armed Forces and for some time I never heard from him. Now and again he pops in, but make no mistake; he was private G to start and now he is Lieutenant G! So proud of his efforts, and wish he would EMAIL me so we could talk (hint!). Anyways, his requests go right into the show so here is Crash Test Dummies and "Mmm Mmm Mmm":

So happy to see you back my friend.

Dinosaurtrader pinged me with this sick as all get out tune "The Hoodoo" and I submit this tune for full enjoy:

I like that one.

Two songs left, better grab a drink or a girl. Both would be just right.

From an 80's icon film, "Old Enough to Rock and Roll" via Rainey Haynes:

Gets me going.

Last tune.

I am a metal head in many forms of the word. Love the acoustic solo from Metallica's song "To Live is to Die" and so please check out this 3 guitar show, all acoustic of the solo section:

Not great but not bad.

Have a good night.

Odd Jobs Over the Years

2011-11-10T22:40:00.003-05:00

Short on time after a nasty commute and I still have to run out in a bit. Had a thought in mind for a non market post, so here it comes.

Tomorrow night is Friday night, so get those requests in.

Odd Jobs Over the Years
I don't know why but I was thinking about all the different things I have done for employment over the years. Why not make a list and see how it looks? I go by grades because it's easier to remember a timeline that way for me. I am bad with years.

Railroad Construction and Repair - 4th Grade to end of High School

My Father was a Trackman and then supervisor for a large New England railroad. Not an office job. I started off bringing coffee and water to the crew when I was in 4th grade in winter and summer. A crazy growth spurt after 5th grade had me almost my current height in 6th grade so my dad let me loose on the work crew.

In winter and summers when my dad had weekend jobs I would work two 10 hour days laying rails and setting ties. I even got to drive the truck in South Boston to go get coffee. Fun times. What I remember most was it was the most time I got to spend with my dad (child of early age divorce, so sad bla bla). I also remember all the tools like clawbars, joint bar wrenches and jackhammers were all steel so in the summer they got really hot. Blister hot. In the winter they got very cold, the kind of cold that gets into your bones. Later in High School I stopped doing this stuff and in second year of College my father died. Great memories of this job.

K-Mart

In Sophomore year of High School I took a job at K-Mart doing stocking and floor work. My first glimpse at the corporate world. It was not too bad working out back with the inventory, but dealing with customers was sooooo annoying. We all had to be trained on the register and the ONE day I had to ring up (over Thanksgiving sale) this huge lady, well over 300 pounds, decided to both go bra shopping and come through my checkout. I had to take them off the hangers (lol) and fold them and stuff. Um, no thanks. I quit before the Christmas season started up!

Hospital Cafeteria Assembly Line

My mother (a nurse) got me this job at a large local hospital junior year of High School. This may have been the hardest job I ever had. We had to assemble, in assembly line fashion, 200-300 dinners in about 30-40 minutes tops. These meals were trucked up in carts to all the floors, then all was collected and washed before leaving for the night. It was very difficult. I hated it and lasted about 4 months before varsity tennis season started so I quit. Mom was pissed.

Convenience Store and Shoveling

Senior year in High School I got my first taste of the convenience store world. The lottery was the most annoying part. People buy insane numbers of all kinds of tickets and they all lose. THEY ALL LOSE. I saw the same people for months on end and would keep a tally. They all lost huge but kept playing. crazy stuff. During winter I would get up at 3am after snow storms to shovel commercial business areas. All by shovel, we had no equipment. Neither job was that fun.

Construction

After graduation from High School, I lucked out and got a job all summer rebuilding a three family housing unit in Lowell. My boss was amazing and taught me everything about total rebuilds. I did it all; sheetrock, plumbing, framing, stairs, siding, roofing, payroll you name it. On Friday's he had a pool business so we would go around going swimming while fixing pool pumps and liners and such. Maybe the most fun summer I ever had. My boss pleaded with me not to go to college, he wanted to make me a partner! I almost took him up on it.

More Convenience Store

After summer and the start of freshman year in college I got a job at a store across the street from my house. More of the same as before. How many sandwiches can you make before you go insane? 4,365 exactly. Only bright spot was that Micky Ward would come in every other week and grab a sandwich so I got to gab with him about the old boxing gym and stuff.

Grading Elementary Assessment Tests

The summer after sophomore year in College I got a job grading the science section of elementary school assessment tests for grades 5-6. This was a blast. We got in thousands of tests in science that had essay answers and were taught the points on which to grade them. If you ask adults science questions you get hilarious answers, imagine a kid answering! Simple science like evaporation or magnets in essay form were a gold mine of laughs. This was fun. Plus this girl I met working there, that was fun!

Breakthrough Pap Smear Company
Clearly no picture for this one!

Now do not laugh! I had the honor of working at the firm Cytyc (now Hologic) junior year in college that revolutionized the pap smear with their ThinPrep Pap Test. The science behind it was simple, but so smart! This screening has saved so many lives. I was in charge of making the slide samples used to train technicians that do the screening of samples (was very early in the products life). The job was very repetitive, but my first real science job exposure. Plus, the product was a life saver by early detection and correct diagnosis of various issues. I had to leave when my piece of shit car lost 3rd gear Chevy cavalier, only 4 speeds) and getting all the way out to the site was impossible.

Screen Printing

Ok, now a more wild time in my life. Late summer into fall of junior year in college.

I was hanging out with friends from the old neighborhood and I mentioned I needed a job. They set me up at a screen printing shop making T-shirts and other clothes with all kinds of ink printing on them. The main machine was like the one from the picture, all the heads put on another color (we had 12 colors). The huge oven that cooked the ink dry always kept the place so warm it was nice.

The crew was crazy! We would blast Cypress Hill and Beastie Boys all day and it was a great time. Some of the crew were big into the wacky tobacky (have tried a few times, not my thing) and one time I drive the company truck across two towns to deliver a shipment to UPS. After I unloaded the truck I walked to the front and saw that I drove the whole way with a 2 foot water bong, fully loaded, right at the front of the dashboard in full view behind the windshield. Not cool. After the summer I would swing by and clean screens for a few extra bucks which involved tons of paint thinner and gloves got in the way of taking off all the tape. No on wanted to do it but I would for the money and I could come and go as I pleased.

Last Call at Convenience Store
No picture as late junior year and all of senior year in college was not the best time. There was an issue at the store I worked at about "accounting fraud" and missing money. The whole crew was 12 people and it was agreed (by 11 of them) to blame me. Shit, I would tell you now if it had been me, who cares now, but it was not. I have never been anything but honest both in life and here since I started in 2007, no change now. Couple not easy to get to job, a crap car, and a crazy school schedule (I qualified to take post-graduate degree courses for full credit towards advanced degree) and I decided to let it ride best I could until graduation. This was the time when I ate 3 times a week and prayed to get a job after graduation.

But it all worked out. How many jobs have you had? What did you do to get where you wanted to? How hard did you try? How much did you lose, or gain? Important questions.

Have a good night.

What Are the Right Questions?

2011-11-09T20:08:00.000-05:00

What Are the Right Questions?

[Leaving?] "So soon? Without any of those answers you so longed for?"
"You said there are none."
"But you asked the wrong questions."
-Louis and Armand in "Interview with the Vampire"

Dealing with charts and technicals is pretty clean cut. My chart last night (in which I cut off the value numbers, smooth) updated today:

So today's rout drops the SPY to the bottom of the range I am keen on (white lines), right around 123 (equivalent to S&P 500 1230). The upward channel(green lines) still has a little room under that before being violated.

My man Swoon has a 60 minute chart that shows a pretty decent head and shoulders pattern. See it here. The neckline coincides with the areas I have marked.

So either it holds here or it breaks. Or it breaks, then reverses. Or something.

Bigger picture I keep wondering if I have been asking the right questions. Italian debt woes sunk the market today as yields reached a level that scared markets. The ECB is expected to resort to FED like printing to bail out the Eurozone, but when this happens remains to be seen. Talk of a smaller Euro that focuses on deeper integration and scuttles some of the periphery is making the rounds. What that would mean is any one's guess. Most of this is known and made little difference in a rally that was going higher for a month.

But are the right questions being looked at? The big three in my mind right now are:

1.) Greek CDS being called off is having ripple effects in debt markets. The idea that protection via credit default swaps will not be actionable may be causing large debt holders to scramble.

2.) Margin games are not something to be taken lightly. Everyone was laughing when silver margins were increased but now margins for Italian bonds are being raised and that is not funny all of a sudden.

Margins in commodities were lowered (Kid Dynamite gets it right) but the spill over has come from MF Global going bankrupt. Peter Brandt has a lengthy discussion here on what it means for futures traders. I am not one, but it's a deep and necessary part of the market:
MF Global — 2011′s version of 1929

The failure of MF Global”s segregated account to be made whole would be the biggest financial disaster since 1929 and would spell the end of the futures industry as we know it. Folks in the financial industry should take this matter seriously — very seriously. Do not underestimate the importance of this matter.

I cannot say I am knowledgeable in this area, but Brandt sure as hell is.

3.) Greece restructuring along with the MF Global bankruptcy is calling into question what debt and money is actually worth. The notional value of money as I call it. Add on a municipal debt default (Alabama Jefferson County) and no wonder fears are running high.

After climbing the proverbial "wall of worry" it seems the three questions I outlined had no easy and fast answers.

Have a good night.

200 MDA: Iron Bar or Paper Wall?

2011-11-08T20:13:00.000-05:00

It was 70 degrees here today and just perfect out. have to appreciate a day like this well into November.

Joe Frazier
After it was erroneously reported before, Joe Frazier died today. The great former heavyweight champion lost his fight against liver cancer. In January I wrote a detailed recap of Frazier's epic first fight with Muhammad Ali, the "Fight of the Century::
From 1971: The Fight of the Century
Sad day.

200 MDA: Iron Bar or Paper Wall?
Today was another wild run as things looked pretty poor at the open, but then settled down. Later in day things took off again. It's very difficult to watch the daily action because of the volatility.

A key moving average for stocks is the 200 day (200 MDA). Some averages mean more to some people than others. I like to view the 200 day as a reflection of longer term price action. It's not the end of all discussion, but usually adds to the conversation.

Here is a daily chart for the SPY:

On October 27th stocks closed above the 200 MDA (yellow line), only to suffer a drop right back below over the next few days. Support was grabbed at the rising 20 day (green line). Today the close was just over the 200 MDA again.

Ideally for long setups the trip over the 200 day would have held up to a drop and that would have been support. As it just barley crossed it, that would have been a lot to ask. This is the second test of it. Will this be an iron bar that rejects stocks or a paper wall that can be pierced and held? Great question! I think it most constructive if stocks meander here or drop slightly (1%) to set up a more solid launching pad. Of course the market hardly ever does what anyone wants. Using the green channel drawn on chart will be the guide post for me.

I look at moving averages and many traders spend quite a bit of time on them. I am more apt to assign price action, volume, and price levels (white horizontal lines) more weight. As such, the 1230 level is still key to me on any downside.

I did open some positions today and may discuss later after the trades have developed.

Have a good night.

If Only You Believe in Miracles Baby

2011-11-07T19:40:00.000-05:00

Crazy busy day today as the automated lab robotics were delivered. I was at work for 6am and ran around all day long. Good to have some down time.

If Only You Believe in Miracles Baby
Clearly I stole the blog title from the Jefferson Starship song:

Sometimes (well most times) the daily kind of noise can get into your head. That's ok, if you can tune it out. If you cannot then you risk missing the forest by staring at every tree that comes along.

This is going to be a short post because it's simple now. The Euro news has passed it's apex. Enough promises of some kind of bailout have been made, it's all details and silly back and forth now. Whether Greece is bailed out thrown overboard has limited impact, the golden goose here is Italy and that is going to be backstopped by whatever means necessary. Yes I know Italian bonds are screaming higher in yields, but that might be mostly speculation being pressed before the bailout.

I had real fears about earnings season this time, but it has gone fine. The only monkey in the wrench (Die Hard) is the ECRI still calling for a recession. I doubted them last year (they said no recession, I said yes) and was wrong, so I am lax to dismiss them again this time.

The post I made on October 28th still holds as does the chart:

The price action is telling the story right now. I think there may be some scary opens going forward if some headline gets put out that causes drama, but those drops are going to be supported by buyers coming in. It's a broken record here and elsewhere but market players are not exposed to stocks right now and need to be. The contrarian in you may say "then it's time to be short!" but it is way early for that angle to be in play.

It may seem a miracle the market came up out of that big break lower in early October. It may be even more of a miracle that after a red hot October, stocks keep going up. Sometimes you gotta believe in miracles, baby. Like I do.

Have a good night.

Depression Sunday

2011-11-06T20:08:00.000-05:00

Ready for Monday?

Not much to say here tonight. Tony Stewart is all but a lock for NASCAR title and the New England Partiots defense is so bad I think a college team could hang 50 points on them. It's time for Bill Belichick to move on, he looks like a joke with how the defense has evolved over last 3 years. I am done talking about them.

Greece is saved and so is Italy. So is the world. Or something.

Have a good night.

Restored Utility Friday

2011-11-04T19:56:00.000-04:00

It's much easier with cable and electricity fully restored. What a long week. Still a few pockets up here without power, but it should be fixed by tomorrow. Halloween has been set up for Sunday night now.

The Week Ahead
To be honest, I am tired at weeks end here and with Greek drama hitting the screens tonight I will wait until homework night Sunday to get in market mode. Should nothing too scary come out of Europe before Monday this is a market that can be traded. It's hanging around and no momentum to the downside is getting traction. Does not mean it's all a run up from here, but good ideas traded right should work out. More Sunday.

Friday Night Entertainment
After a long week I know I need some fun stuff.

The Dark Crystal Artwork
Long time readers now I think the Jim Henson film "The Dark Crystal" was a masterpiece. No CGI even! The great site iO9 posted up some great art stills of the characters and so here they are:

Very nice.

Fine Dining
Did you miss the cook BBQ master No Excuses BBQ made this week?:
The Return of the McSpam (sort of)

1963 ZR-1 Corvette
This car is so sick I am crazy about it. A 1963 split window Corvette, but all ZR-1 underneath:
1963 Chevrolet Corvette - Concealed Weapon

Picture Pages
The visuals are always best.

Very nice:

see more Very Demotivational

Still an issue after all this time?:

see more funny videos, and check out our Yo Dawg lols!

Films You Should See
Rental advice.

So you have not seen "The Wraith"? Well check out an all star cast in a cheesy flick:

Features a great Ozzy tune which I will feature below.

A new era classic is "Road to Perdition" and now all kinds of scenes are coming up on YouTube. Check this one out if you ever thought Tom Hanks could not be totally badass:

Should have won Oscar this film.

Rock Blogging
Some tunes to get you ready for the weekend.

Big thanks to Sal Arnuk of Themis Trading. On Twitter (@ThemisSal) today he posted words to a song I was trying to remember for a long time. Please check out Gordon Lightfoot and "The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald":

Wonderful song.

For the great blogger (and where is that mutual fund??) Trader Mark, I offer Prince and "When the Doves Cry":

"animals strike curious poses..."

From the film above, here is Ozzy with "Secret Loser":

So good.

From 1972, a very smooth John Denver performance of "Leaving on a Jet Plane":

Finally! A high quality version of Joan Jett doing "Cherry Bomb":

She was great!

Last call! Grab a lighter and a drink.

Closing the show with "The Flame" by Cheap Trick as to send you off mellow:

Have a good night.

Electric Boogaloo

2011-11-03T20:05:00.000-04:00

Hello out there!

This morning at 11:37am the electricity went back on, along with the cable. It was timestamped on my generator.

And let me tell you about my generator.

I don't plug much here and when I do it's because I feel strongly about it. It could be blog sites or products but I never point you towards anything I do not believe in.

That said, if you are in an area where weather can knock out your power, you need to look into Generac Generators. The Guardian series of stand by units can fit all your needs and they perform. My unit (10kW) ran for 5 and a half days after no service for 6 months and had zero issues. They come on 10 seconds after power goes out and shut off and switch to utility after 3 minutes of outside power being confirmed. Checked the oil tonight and it's clean and not gritty at all. Solid units. Get the natural gas line if they are in your area and no need to have gasoline or propane on hand. This purchase really saved me money this week when looking at a week long hotel stay for 3 people and two animals.

In market related matters, I am still getting caught up. I expect more commentary over weekend as I get up to full speed. So much work to do in the yard as well this weekend, plenty of trees did not make it. A chart showing all I missed was more drama of wishful longs and shorts so scared of headlines it's a Gap 'O' Thon out there (hourly chart for better look, I only use daily charts for my work in general):

And it is my good friend Josh Brown's 3 year Anniversary of blogging on The Reformed Broker, so why not swing by and leave a comment. Readers know how much GYSC appreciates the help and advice that TRB offers. The best of us in this small world.

Oh, and Friday is on like Donkey Kong so get those requests in!

Have a good night.

Calamity from Storm

2011-10-31T20:24:00.000-04:00

Hello out there! I am writing this on my phone so it will be brief.

The snow storm was terrible here and my neighborhood is severely damaged. Power is out and best case is for a Thursday restoration. I have doubts.

The power outages are so widespread gas is in major shortage and I witnessed a scary situation at a gas station tonight. Police sirens and fire truck horns run all night here and its not a good time.

Luckily I had trees removed a while back and my Generac generator which runs on a natural gas underground line has me powered up. Still no cable so no computer. It could be much worse and its not really cold yet so that helps.

So no real blog posts, but I am tweeting stuff. Hope everyone in this storm is doing ok.

Have a good night.

Escape Velocity Friday

2011-10-28T20:13:00.000-04:00

It actually snowed last night and we might even get a few inches tomorrow night! Readers know how much I despise the winter.

Rocket Market
October was lights out for markets as the S&P 500 rose over 14%, one of it's best month ever. The Reformed Broker has a great chart of the best months for the S&P via Bespoke Investment group showing them all there.

I covered why I believed a large move up was coming:
-Panic De-Selling October 17th
-Resolution is at Hand October 19th

I mentioned last night that I did not trade this move well in my trading account but what can you do.

Looking ahead if markets can consolidate and tighten up next week, a sustained move into the next month is the most likely outcome. I will have much more on this Sunday when it is homework night but until then here is a chart worth a look as I have been using it as my guide for this summer into fall season of chaos (click for larger view):

Friday Night Entertainment
As if everyone is not jubilant enough!

If We Don't Love our Humanity the Robots Win
Fellow 12631 member TDLAmagi tweeted this story today and it's just my kind of thing:
Scientists create brain-like, massively parallel computer from molecules
Using the chemical 2,3-dichloro-5,6-dicyano-p-benzoquinone(DDQ) and gold, the computer is fashioned! Read the piece as it's more complicated than that. Bottom line, quantum computers are coming and they will become self aware.

Picture Pages
Time to get your markers and your pencils.

Seems about right:

see more Very Demotivational

Messaging the truth:

see more

Film Clips
Some ideas for your NFLX or Red Box addiction.

"The Godfather III" gets a bad rap but I really think it was well done and a strong film. There are several key parts but I love when Vincent takes on the two assassins Zasa sent after him (and Bridgett Fonda eye candy):

"I'm gonna do something to convince you"

A made for TV movie (TNT) that did not suck was the supernatural "Purgatory". Featuring an all star cast, this film had a novel concept of former gunfighters (Wild Bill Hickock, Doc Holliday, Billy the Kid and others) having to serve out a penance period before being allowed into Heaven. Chance brings an outlaw bad into their town and it's just a great story. Highly recommend:

You will thank me later.

Rock Blogging
Making the music since 2007.

Why not a little mood music? Def Leppard and "Have You Ever Needed Someone so Bad":

Nice.

Reader Watchtower was worried "Dreamboat Annie" by Heart was too mellow for Friday night. I play all kinds of stuff, no problem:

I love that tune actually.

I played the next tune a while ago and it got rave reviews. Since then I have many new readers (thanks! leave a comment!) and a number of quality Twitter followers. I am playing again so this gets heard. You will love this Phil Pearlman! Cover of "Tears of the Dragon":

Epic.

My favorite Guns N' Roses song is "You Could be Mine" out of a sea of killer songs. Everyone hates this one because it was attached to Terminator 2. Too bad:

Ok, two left.

Got this one stick in my head on drive home so it's Santa Esmeralda and "Don't Let me be Misunderstood":

That will get you moving.

Last call, grab a drink and whatever else you need.

Alice in Chains, "Would?" is nasty fine:

Have a good night.

What Can be Said?

2011-10-27T19:31:00.000-04:00

I just had a special 2 hour and 15 minute drive home! If that was not great enough I have to head out in an hour again! Just lovely.

What Can be Said?
It was a panic out there today on the buy side. Not much left to be said. I laid out this path in a couple posts over the past weeks, was not a huge surprise.

I got almost none of the massive rally in my trading account. I over thought things too much instead of sticking to my general ideas that I wrote out on the blog. Don't worry for me, I do have a long term account (4 times larger than trading) and I had a good summer there and caught a little of the latest and greatest rally. I am a far better longer term trader than short term, it's becoming very clear to me! I think I trade different when I choose to talk about it openly and that's something I will have to think about. Live and learn.

Anyways, markets set up now for either a repeat of last year end's epic run or some kind of collapse after a 20% move in under 30 days. Should be fun as always.

Have a good night.

Pressed for Time

2011-10-26T20:03:00.000-04:00

It's not been a great week so far, mostly due to things not related to the blog or markets. You know, real life and stuff. Short on time so just a few notes and then I am going to enjoy some quiet time and read stuff.

I sold out all three of my stock picks this morning. Yes, a couple hours before the crazy run up. I know, weak! AVA (-1%), TX (+1%), and SATS (-2.5%) were the final tallies. All three were not too close to my set stops, but market was looking ugly in the morning and I was going to be away most of the day and did not want to deal with some kind of wash out when I got back in the afternoon. Gun shy I guess.

Tomorrow is more Euro headlines and some GDP numbers. I am screening tonight to see what's interesting.

Have a good night.