Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

I trust you all had a great 2013 and Christmas season!

It's been a wild ride for this writer all year. Exciting work challenges, home improvements, smoking meat, and another glorious NFL season.

I played fantasy football for the first time last year in my work league, losing in the championship final. This year I got to the work league playoffs, but was upset because Calvin Johnson stank up the joint against the Ravens. I made two title rounds in 2 of the 3 other leagues I played in and it's yet to be decided. Not to bad!

On things economic, there was some good stuff (better jobs numbers sort of, Europe got quiet, credit expanded, the market took off), and some bad stuff (credit expanded in bad things (cars, student loans), market took off masking risk, Paul Krugman is still considered smart!). Long time readers know it's always my advice to stick conservative and aim for ~ 10% a year returns. If you did not step on a landmine this year, and it would have been hard to, then you probably made 2-4 years worth of returns this past year. It's ok to bank it and play light next year. I am doing just that.

For Christmas the wife got me a video called "Black Air: The Buick Gran National Documentary" and this of course has me even more crazed over muscle cars than normal.

I am always checking the awesome site RK Motors in Charlotte and it's getting harder and harder not to pull the trigger on a vintage Plymouth GTX or a 1955 Chevy. Or maybe a 1987 GNX? Who knows but it's about time to trade in the Infiniti and I could get crazy!

All my best for the new year!

Have a good night.

River Bottom Nightmare Band!

Love it:

Football

HURRY!!!! While it is still Posted. Ozzy and Randy

As soon as they are uploaded they get taken down but here is a video of the first 3 songs of the immortal Randy Rhoads "Tribute" album!!!

The intro, opening song "I Don't Know" followed by the greatest song ever recorded live, this version of "Crazy Train" is simply too much to pass over:

LOVE IT.

Airforce Lt. Col. Andrew Tanner

This classic film was on this weekend and I always love the OG-riginal "Red Dawn" from 1984. One of the best scenes is Col. Andrew Tanner discussing the invasion:

Love it.

Have a good night.

So What Happened?

Ok so this I had to share.

Kola Superdeep Borehole
I have mentioned this before, but as a reminder via Wiki:

The Kola Superdeep Borehole is the result of a scientific drilling project of the Soviet Union on the Kola Peninsula. The project attempted to drill as deep as possible into the Earth's crust. Drilling began on 24 May 1970 using the Uralmash-4E, and later the Uralmash-15000 series drilling rig. A number of boreholes were drilled by branching from a central hole. The deepest, SG-3, reached 12,262 metres (40,230 ft) (2.21 leagues) in 1989, and is the deepest hole ever drilled, and the deepest artificial point on Earth.

So what happened?

Well I leave you with two images.

One, the place looks like it was destroyed (click for larger view):

Yeah, many old USSR sites look bad. The collapse and all that. I get it.

But then why was the borehole WELDED SHUT and left INTACT all this time? (click for larger view):

I dunno, but I bet it's interesting!

Have a good night.

The Onion: "Financial Sector Thinks It’s About Ready To Ruin World Again"

Oh this is classic:

Via The Onion:
Financial Sector Thinks It’s About Ready To Ruin World Again

Read it all, but some funny (true?) snippets:
-“People are beginning to feel at ease spending money and investing in their futures again,” Blankfein continued. “That’s the perfect time to step in and do what we do best: rip the heart right out of the world’s economy.”

** See this commercial as back up:


-“On second thought, maybe we’ll wipe out the housing market again too, just for the hell of it,” Schnall quickly added. “Might as well, right?”

**The current accepted idea of a housing recovery is going to be so hilarious in a year or so I chuckle everyday.

-“Now that the public’s efforts to curtail questionable Wall Street trading practices have all but ceased, it’s time for us to bring the world to its knees again,” said AIG CEO Robert Benmosche. “There are still plenty of opaque financial derivatives, high-frequency trading operations, and off-balance sheet transactions out there, all with virtually no federal regulation. Trust me, we can definitely work with that. And if anything, we can always just lobby for further concessions and deregulation in Washington—which, by the way, is so, so easy to do—and then we can cause as much damage as we want.”

**No worries bulls, Janet Yellen is set to unleash QE Infinity TIMES Infinity come January but wowza, it's quite a way until then! Another commercial to help with the visual:


-"And while we’re at it, we’ll make sure we once again come away from this whole thing scot-free and far wealthier.”

**It's true. What really drove me away from things market and trading was that every trader/investor/money manager is responsible for the way the market works. To turn a blind eye in the awe of an uptrend is dishonest and shows where your real drive is from.

Have a good night.

Wall Street Babies Get Pampers Changed by Bernanke's Au Pair Hilsenrath

In case you were confused about things for the STUNNING 4% or so drop in the indices and rate sensitive items getting clobbered this handy diagram should clear things up.

1.) OMFG!!!! The Fed may taper/slow/stop extra bond buying:

2.) WE ARE SAVED!!!!:

As you were.


Note: The recent drop extends my time estimate until we get there, but I believe when the S&P 500 gets to 1800 there will be a significant opportunity.

Have a good night.

Vacation

The Bahamas for the next 8 days, see ya!

ATTENTION: Wall Street is Hiring Bagholders. Step Up!

How do you know you are Bearish and showing cognitive bias? How many Zero Hedge articles you reference in a work. Bullish? Anything by Joe Weisenthal on Business Insider.

Anyways, If I hear people "missed out" on the 145% rally from the lows I will scream. Only Wall Street types and morons think some dude with a job reacts in minutes or hours to market gyrations.

My chart (click for larger view):

We know, PE expansion due to low rates, etc.

The taunting, the smug dismissive attitude has to stop. No wonder normal folks do not do anything but steady invest and not watch. Main Street has seen enough of the baloney. Keep selling this uptrend (its not a 'rally' morons going on 4 years; if of course you missed the murder holes then bought the bottom which is easy) and no one is buying. Wall Street needs a bagholder that is not them (think 2000-2001; did YOU get bailed out? No? Too bad...) so buy in if you want.

Good luck.

I Will Be Saving This

Puzzling that faced with overwhelming evidence that former Fed head Alan Greenspan is a blathering idiot that blew 2 bubbles and caused massive damage, people now look to Ben Bernanke as some kind of hero:

I will be saving this one.

Guilty Pleasures: "The Undertaker"

Ok, so I used to LOVE the WWE (formally the WWF) and most especially the performer known as "The Undertaker". Fake? Yup. Silly? Maybe. AWESOME? Of course.

Enjoy this entrance at SummerSlam in 1994:

That just rocks!!!!!!!!!!

Lighters Up; Party Time

All is well and getting even better.

Because I am a "perma bear" or I don't philosophically empathize that unlimited handouts/bailouts/support for losers and their failed efforts constitute real accomplishment, I am an idiot. I have nothing to add. All anything is about, is making returns and money. I guess I missed that class. Too much fishing can be blamed as usual.

Stocks, bonds, real estate, anything but gold and silver is going to unknown highs and you have to buy. Buy now. In a thousand years of history no one but Benjamin Bernanke has figured out how to make a nirvana of free money with no consequence rain prosperity upon the masses. I tip my hat. Well done sir, well done.

I often think of this Kevin Depew Miyanville article
Five Things You Need to Know: Deflation is Here, What Next?

It's all become untethered. Emotion, momentum, and how far one can push it.

I think we see S&P 500 at 1800 in 6 months.

Is 1800 on the SPY overvalued? How can I know? There is no way to gauge it.

The restraints are off.

Have a good night.

It's Over

My family and me are thankfully fully removed from the happenings in Boston over the last 5 days. Many I know and care about have not been.

I think there is so much right now that is confusing and hard but let's all be thankful it's over.

All my prayers and best for the Boston/Cambridge area tonight.

J

Circular Logic and Bad Candles. A Place for Economic Disconnect?

A moment of your time if you please.

I scan a few sites, read the news, and see a few charts in a given week. What I have been seeing since QE unlimited went online has blown my mind and it's high time everyone admits something.

NO ONE KNOWS WTF IS GOING ON.

Now I don't want to name names and provide links but here is what I see from the distance view:

So just that I get it:
A. In the new year all the big money and even Mom and Pop were coming into the market full bore. Fuck bonds, gold, bitcoin, toilet paper, it was all stocks all the time. All that sideline money coming in and high rollers like Dalio, I mean, what's not to like?

B. Now this rally is so hated by the under-invested (ok one link) that missed the "rally" (when is an uptrend not a rally BTW?) that they play contrarian and say they are bearish while they really want in.

C. Everyone knows the sentiment survey is contrarian, so what to make of the highest bearish reading since 2009 (Remember? The world was ending and some shit) as stocks rocket higher?

As a scientist looking at this, you cannot have A and B together. If you are saying both you were wrong at one of the points. They are circular in logic and disingenuous.

Point C is a new era idea, that markets no longer reflect much of anything save positioning.

I was always more of a technical guy but scanning a few charts just shows me its about junk at this point. Check this (click for larger view):

Candle folks would call that a bearish engulfing on heavy volume (volume don't matter, I know) and it's negated almost immediately. I have about 40 of these highlighted over the last 2 months across many things. technicals are fucked now. Low volume paints are candle killers. Don't bother.

And at last, it's all about crushing shorts. Which if you have any idea about how large money manages risk is a silly notion. Maybe computer jockeys put their full account short a stock then get wiped out, but their $2000 is unlikely to make a career for anyone on the otherside. Not everyone that is uneasy or skeptical of the disconnect between the economy and equities is "fighting" the uptrend. You are on drugs if anyone is shorting this stuff.

In summation, I have no clue whats going on. Looking around, no one else does. What I will not accept is bull shit circular arguments. Maybe QE unlimited on steroids from Japan and the US Fed will make us all rich. Why they waited until now and not 50 years earlier is beyond me though. Anyone have an answer to that? Thought not, except maybe the Krugmonster.

It's ok if you don't know. Just say so. I have no idea.

On a more philosophical note, all this effort to force people into risk and markets by Japan and the US seems dangerous. I don't expect anyone that makes their living by it to speak up but its rotten and cruel.

Have a good night.

Some funny Stuff

Hey all!!!

Hope you are all well.

Some funny tidbits tonight.

-Japan
-Calculated Risk so bullish on housing (he should know better)
-Same old stuff; buy everything now due to "great rotation" bla bla bla and bla

To be honest I am getting set up to do some serious fishing this Spring/Summer. Even if I had stayed writing on things finance, I can't be any more clear on how sentiment and herd moves have taken over things. The market is not the economy and vice versa. Bunch of cowboys trying to rip each other off. At least in a year or so we get a final answer on Keynesian bull shit from Japan. Oh, and please keep selling your gold and silver. Been waiting for the hot money to leave for over 5 years. Exit already.

My submission, for funniest video EVER is this. NOTE: Don't play if you are easily offended (I'm serious):


Have a good night.

"But I, being poor, have only my dreams"

Brilliant clip from a way under seen film "Equillibrium":


Very beautiful.

I mentioned to a friend of mine no one would be short going into Sunday night and I was right.

As away as I have been it's clear most if not all of my heroes are falling into the trap of making money versus doing whats right. Glad, so glad I have walked away.

If the S&P 500 was at 3000 but they were burning bodies for fuel, money types would laud the efficiency and look at margins for companies.

All this with the backstop of a Federal Reserve as a savior. Be honest, it's nothing you are doing, just a helping hand that you all accept. Index funds are keeping pace or better. No one needs a stock guy in a bull market.

I could never on this blog get people in the wider sphere to get past returns and money. Too bad. I thought doing whats right and integrity were paramount.

Wow. Just wow.

Friday Night Entertainment Light

A little throw back to Friday Night Entertainment. Enjoy.

The 25 Greatest Unscripted Scenes in Films
Saw this one this week, 25 of the best unscripted scenes in movie history. As the description says, please leave the captions ON to see some extra info. My favorites are #19 (Aliens "Game OVER"), #17 (The Usual Suspects lineup), #12 (Jaws "Your gonna need a bigger boat"), and #6 (Blade Runner "tears in rain"):

Nice collection.

69 'sacks' or 69 'sex'? You Decide
You have to make the call but watch this news clip and decide. I say '69 sex':

Yup.

Magnetic Silly Putty
I bought two of these magnetic silly putty toys, one for me and one for my wife. They are AWESOME!!!!! Highly recommended desk toy or just to help you puzzle out magnetic field lines and other physics stuff:

You can buy some at Simply Clever Toys.

Daniel H. Wilson Scores Again
A while back I reviewed Daniel H. Wilson's seminal novel "Robopocalypse" and gave it my highest recommendation:

I was reminded of his work by two things. One was this picture which shows how low the robots will go, attacking our own kittens for crying out loud:

And second I read his new book this week, "AMPED":

And came away both horrified and amazed. Get this book as well.

Have a good night.

When Classics Get Reborn

Happy Valentine's Day!

I survived the deluge of snow here in Massachusetts intact, not even a need for the generator. A snow blower would have been nice, but the plow guy did the best he could.

A quick word to the New England Patriots; PAY Talib, GET Ed Reed. Let Welker walk and maybe get a cheaper kicker. That is all.

When Classics Get Reborn
I am coming into my 37th birthday window. Last year you may recall I was not happy about year 36, but here I am and all the better going forward. Two weeks cigarette free, and to be honest it feels good. Except for this freaking headache in the center of my head at the top of my nose. Any advice appreciated.

As such, I love older music. Sometimes an older song either gets re-done or gets imprinted on you in another way. I have two examples to show you.

First up, Del Shannon's immortal "Runaway". It stands alone as an all time classic, just take a listen:

Most excellent.

Now the first time I heard this song, it was a later version Del recorded for the great TV show "Crime Story" starring Dennis Farina (yes, the Xfinity guy). A bit more electric, some piano, and lyrics aimed at the show. I like this version better than the original:

And an old classic is reborn. Well, it was back then anyway.

I have to say, I had never heard of Thurston Harris. Thurston Howell III, yes, but not Harris! The first time I heard the song "Little Bitty Pretty One" was in the film "Christine" at a particular revenge scene:

Nice.

The OG-riginal:

Old school great. And by John Carpenter's film, a classic had new life.

Who can forget Bob Dylan's song "All Along the Watchtower"? Well, everyone after Jimi Hendrix made it his own:

Yuppers.

Recently (kind of) The Mighty Mighty Bosstones forever took "Detroit Rock City" from KISS in my eyes:

That works.

What comes to mind for you? Better new versions or better old versions?

Have a good night.

On The Fallacy of the "Greater Good" and a Great Song

Hey all.

Don't mention the Patriots. An ugly show last week that left me scratching my head. I don't think the Pats could have beaten San Francisco anyway, but still, a no show in the second half last week. That window is getting so small now for them.

I wanted to take a second to say something, something without spelling it all out for you. I think anyone that has read me over the years will understand, others not so. Here goes.

On The Fallacy of the "Greater Good" 
So the financial "crisis" is over.

My friend Josh Brown has a great piece up this week, aptly titled "The Word is Out, Just So You Know" and it's solid and spot on. I don't know for myself if this is another 2003-2007 never ending run up or another fake out. Honestly, I don't care.

No matter what happened, things were going to be ok after a bit. That's the truth.

It's the fallacy of "The Greater Good" that kills me. Doing wrong to get to a right. I mean, do you all teach your kids that? All I hear is how everyone wants to provide a future for their kids, bla bla and all that. You teach them to cut corners, cheat, lie, and steal to get to an endpoint? The glory of the greater good gets hollow.

I don't want to spend a bunch of time on this.

How you get somewhere is just as, and maybe more so, important than getting there. My problem with all this, and it's a big problem, is that it was all a fucking handout. The Fed, the Treasury, two Presidents gave the biggest handout to the worst criminal rip off in America history. It does not sit well. But hey, money is getting made right?

Ever sit by your Dad and know he is a vegetable after a massive heart attack? The most powerful railroad man you have ever seen? The fuck do a few dollars mean then? Know your sister is a full blown Bi-Polar nut case and you can never see her again? See your mother crumble through all this, and only your effort and integrity carries her through?

You stand. You hold up.

But no one that is a cheat can stand, and some that need handouts can never walk.

I don't sell stuff. I don't provide services. Whether the world ended in 2009 or we are now on track for a S&P 500 run to 2500 I don't have a real vested interest.

There is no honor, and no integrity anymore. You may think a few bucks make things 'right' but it only blunts the feeling to do what's right. Any student of history knows what happens when the core of a society gets eroded. If you can turn your head for criminals to rob you, so your 401k comes back, you will turn your head for most anything. That's the truth.

So turn your head.

Great Song
I forgot about this song, but I do love it. The fiddle gets played almost to a high note, yet comes back down and so the song seems sad. Check out The Waterboys with "Fisherman's Blues":


Have a good night.

Buy This Book: "Gun Machine" by Warren Ellis

Totally blown away by this new book by Warren Ellis, a new era classic. I cannot review it because I don't want to give details. Just a great read:

Amazon link is here.

Spectacular.

Have a good night.

Amazing Picture

Hey all! Football playoffs so far have been somewhat not competitive. I think next weeks divisional round will be quite different indeed. Expect some unbelievably hard fought, tight games. GO PATRIOTS!

Amazing Picture
Ran across this picture from 1942 by the famous Ansel Adams and thought I would place it here. Titled "The Tetons and the Snake River" (click for larger view or go here):

Have a good night.

In July 2013 "Pacific Rim" Recaptures the Old Days of Mecha

Hey anyone that still reads!

I am well and things are great. I can highly recommend getting away from things financial (if you are able), you may find it refreshing. Some of the absurd comedy over the last few months makes great theater. Just wanted to leave a quick note.

In July 2013 "Pacific Rim" Recaptures the Old Days of Mecha
Back when I was a kid I did not want to be President, an Air Force Pilot, nor one of the rich and famous. I wanted to pilot the robot "Grendizer":

And yes, I wanted to be Orion Quest:

Well it seems someone hit on this idea, at least to some degree, with the new film coming in July of 2013; "Pacific Rim":

Here is the trailer:

I gotta say, I have some high hopes!

Have a good night.