My family and me are thankfully fully removed from the happenings in Boston over the last 5 days. Many I know and care about have not been.
I think there is so much right now that is confusing and hard but let's all be thankful it's over.
All my prayers and best for the Boston/Cambridge area tonight.
J
Friday, April 19, 2013
Friday, April 12, 2013
Circular Logic and Bad Candles. A Place for Economic Disconnect?
A moment of your time if you please.
I scan a few sites, read the news, and see a few charts in a given week. What I have been seeing since QE unlimited went online has blown my mind and it's high time everyone admits something.
NO ONE KNOWS WTF IS GOING ON.
Now I don't want to name names and provide links but here is what I see from the distance view:
So just that I get it:
A. In the new year all the big money and even Mom and Pop were coming into the market full bore. Fuck bonds, gold, bitcoin, toilet paper, it was all stocks all the time. All that sideline money coming in and high rollers like Dalio, I mean, what's not to like?
B. Now this rally is so hated by the under-invested (ok one link) that missed the "rally" (when is an uptrend not a rally BTW?) that they play contrarian and say they are bearish while they really want in.
C. Everyone knows the sentiment survey is contrarian, so what to make of the highest bearish reading since 2009 (Remember? The world was ending and some shit) as stocks rocket higher?
As a scientist looking at this, you cannot have A and B together. If you are saying both you were wrong at one of the points. They are circular in logic and disingenuous.
Point C is a new era idea, that markets no longer reflect much of anything save positioning.
I was always more of a technical guy but scanning a few charts just shows me its about junk at this point. Check this (click for larger view):
Candle folks would call that a bearish engulfing on heavy volume (volume don't matter, I know) and it's negated almost immediately. I have about 40 of these highlighted over the last 2 months across many things. technicals are fucked now. Low volume paints are candle killers. Don't bother.
And at last, it's all about crushing shorts. Which if you have any idea about how large money manages risk is a silly notion. Maybe computer jockeys put their full account short a stock then get wiped out, but their $2000 is unlikely to make a career for anyone on the otherside. Not everyone that is uneasy or skeptical of the disconnect between the economy and equities is "fighting" the uptrend. You are on drugs if anyone is shorting this stuff.
In summation, I have no clue whats going on. Looking around, no one else does. What I will not accept is bull shit circular arguments. Maybe QE unlimited on steroids from Japan and the US Fed will make us all rich. Why they waited until now and not 50 years earlier is beyond me though. Anyone have an answer to that? Thought not, except maybe the Krugmonster.
It's ok if you don't know. Just say so. I have no idea.
On a more philosophical note, all this effort to force people into risk and markets by Japan and the US seems dangerous. I don't expect anyone that makes their living by it to speak up but its rotten and cruel.
Have a good night.
I scan a few sites, read the news, and see a few charts in a given week. What I have been seeing since QE unlimited went online has blown my mind and it's high time everyone admits something.
NO ONE KNOWS WTF IS GOING ON.
Now I don't want to name names and provide links but here is what I see from the distance view:
A. In the new year all the big money and even Mom and Pop were coming into the market full bore. Fuck bonds, gold, bitcoin, toilet paper, it was all stocks all the time. All that sideline money coming in and high rollers like Dalio, I mean, what's not to like?
B. Now this rally is so hated by the under-invested (ok one link) that missed the "rally" (when is an uptrend not a rally BTW?) that they play contrarian and say they are bearish while they really want in.
C. Everyone knows the sentiment survey is contrarian, so what to make of the highest bearish reading since 2009 (Remember? The world was ending and some shit) as stocks rocket higher?
As a scientist looking at this, you cannot have A and B together. If you are saying both you were wrong at one of the points. They are circular in logic and disingenuous.
Point C is a new era idea, that markets no longer reflect much of anything save positioning.
I was always more of a technical guy but scanning a few charts just shows me its about junk at this point. Check this (click for larger view):
And at last, it's all about crushing shorts. Which if you have any idea about how large money manages risk is a silly notion. Maybe computer jockeys put their full account short a stock then get wiped out, but their $2000 is unlikely to make a career for anyone on the otherside. Not everyone that is uneasy or skeptical of the disconnect between the economy and equities is "fighting" the uptrend. You are on drugs if anyone is shorting this stuff.
In summation, I have no clue whats going on. Looking around, no one else does. What I will not accept is bull shit circular arguments. Maybe QE unlimited on steroids from Japan and the US Fed will make us all rich. Why they waited until now and not 50 years earlier is beyond me though. Anyone have an answer to that? Thought not, except maybe the Krugmonster.
It's ok if you don't know. Just say so. I have no idea.
On a more philosophical note, all this effort to force people into risk and markets by Japan and the US seems dangerous. I don't expect anyone that makes their living by it to speak up but its rotten and cruel.
Have a good night.
Sunday, April 7, 2013
Some funny Stuff
Hey all!!!
Hope you are all well.
Some funny tidbits tonight.
-Japan
-Calculated Risk so bullish on housing (he should know better)
-Same old stuff; buy everything now due to "great rotation" bla bla bla and bla
To be honest I am getting set up to do some serious fishing this Spring/Summer. Even if I had stayed writing on things finance, I can't be any more clear on how sentiment and herd moves have taken over things. The market is not the economy and vice versa. Bunch of cowboys trying to rip each other off. At least in a year or so we get a final answer on Keynesian bull shit from Japan. Oh, and please keep selling your gold and silver. Been waiting for the hot money to leave for over 5 years. Exit already.
My submission, for funniest video EVER is this. NOTE: Don't play if you are easily offended (I'm serious):
Have a good night.
Hope you are all well.
Some funny tidbits tonight.
-Japan
-Calculated Risk so bullish on housing (he should know better)
-Same old stuff; buy everything now due to "great rotation" bla bla bla and bla
To be honest I am getting set up to do some serious fishing this Spring/Summer. Even if I had stayed writing on things finance, I can't be any more clear on how sentiment and herd moves have taken over things. The market is not the economy and vice versa. Bunch of cowboys trying to rip each other off. At least in a year or so we get a final answer on Keynesian bull shit from Japan. Oh, and please keep selling your gold and silver. Been waiting for the hot money to leave for over 5 years. Exit already.
My submission, for funniest video EVER is this. NOTE: Don't play if you are easily offended (I'm serious):
Have a good night.