Up at 4am this morning and on the road by 4:45am. One of my favorite things to to was done today.
Quabbin Reservoir June 2011
Today was the first trip this season to Quabbin Reservoir. Wikipedia has a great write up on this special place. It can be hard to go on this trip too much during the season because:
-It is reasonably far away
-It is a FULL day to operate a boat for the entire trip, pulling up anchors, setting wind drifts, etc. It takes a ton out of me!
At the Quabbin you can see Bald Eagles soaring and nesting in the trees on many of the islands. We have seen otters here, deer on the shores, numerous wild turkeys, and hummingbirds! A real outdoor bonanza.
As far as fishing goes, it is the best this state has in freshwater. Unreal beauty and a shot at some huge fish. Even if I don't catch anything though, I have a great time. OK, enough writing, my hands are killing me from pulling up the anchor line!
Looking out past the bow of the boat at the Reservoir and a bunch of the islands (click any picture for larger view):
At one point we stopped for a bathroom break (they have toilets placed at certain places for use) and got this cool shot of the waves coming ashore:
On an early stop I was rewarded with this bruiser smallmouth in 20 feet of water:
Senko lure, drop it all the way to the bottom and BOOM!
A little later in the same area, Mrs. Disconnect scored a very nice fish:
She is becoming quite the angler.
The strong sun and heavy wind made most spots hard to fish, so we had to stick to close in to the islands to keep out of the wind gusts. Caught a bunch of small fish, fun but not picture worthy. On one of the last stops I set up a drift using the wind and picked up this great colored smallie, big one too:
Very nice. You can see my portable fish finder in the background of this shot.
A fun day but I am exhausted and my left arm is still vibrating from using the outboard motor! Time to chill out and get ready for tomorrow, which is stocking up day for the Saturday big cookout.
Added:
Like clockwork, any day out on a boat I both cannot sleep and new opportunities come up! In any case, here is KLF's "3am Eternal" as a side note:
Tons of stuff to get ready for the fishing outing tomorrow. I have a 4 am wake up call for some smallmouth bass at the greatest body of water in Massachusetts, the Quabbin Reservoir. Brief note version below.
I Was Wrong and Maybe Right
I closed out my positions in SH (-2%) and PSQ (-1.2%) today. Minimal losses, and I had already set the exit point (S&P 500 over 1300) so it is what it is. I was wrong; I thought the market had been pricing in slower economic data as well as the problem QE 2's end would pose to cash flows into stocks. Even me, the perma bear, bear shitter, gloom and doomer, glass always half empty (a scientist says the glass's volume is .5 actualized, HA!) never spent a pixel on the Greek debt situation except in passing. I never figured the 100% sure bailout was ever worth getting scared over, certainly not a "second Lehman", geez cut it out already. This week the market recouped almost all losses since the big downturn a few weeks ago on Greek debt rollover news. Ok. I was wrong here and what can you do. When the actual traders get back next week and volume picks up, I expect the S&P to rocket to 1400 or more no doubt.
But alas, I was right about something. There was not extreme bearishness nor fear. No freaking bear or nervous manager is going to pour into a market up 3% in two days, no human one anyway. Seems I was correct on the sentiment indicators being 100% wrong. So I was wrong and right during the same week, nice!
Ok, off to tie on hooks and pack supplies, catch you all tomorrow.
Only one more day at work to go! LONG weekend ahead.
Greek Close Out
Tomorrow the great Greek debt deal should get passed. While all along I figured the downward market action was due to slowing economic stats and the end of QE 2, it seems the "fear" that was out there is directly tied to the Greek debt situation. This is confusing as there was no way they were going to default so what was the fear? In any case another monster move up today across all markets means my two index shorts, SH and PSQ, will likely be closed out tomorrow as the S&P 500 will most likely blow past 1300, which was my target to end the trade should things go against me.
While I could make some points about how weak the volume has been on this 2 day rally, the point is now the prices are where they are. When most traders get back next week they will see Greek debt resolution (until another month or so goes by) and markets that are now looking up. Makes no difference how they got there.
All in all I have been doing quite good in the downward market, staying mostly in cash and playing quick hits like FURX and MAKO. Should things turn a corner and settle into a upward trend, it will get easier to find spots to trade. Will have to see how it goes. I have to say I am still in a bit of shock at all the belly aching and whining I saw across the economic universe from a 6-8% decline in the indices. Yes, certain stocks were pummeled much worse, but seriously that was no end of the world thing.
Late week weather is looking mighty fine, which brings me too.....
Mini Vacation Week
I took Thursday and Friday off for this week. The weather is going to be perfect, and Thursday will be a great day to go after big fish on the Gray Lady, Quabbin Reservoir. I have to buy another anchor as it seems I tied the knot to the thing a bit loose and it came off last year on my last trip there. Oops!
As such, I am sitting on my short spot in SH and PSQ and those trades have programmed end points. I DO NOT want to talk about CNU which blew up for 30% today!!! I freaking had that spot scoped out last week, I am sick stupid it seems. Unreal.
I will do lighter fare this week as I am about done thinking about this stuff for a bit. If the end of notional money and ponzi debt rollovers were not so important, the whole Greece-Spain-Italy-World thing would be so funny it hurts. I think even at the panic lows in 2009 people had no idea how bad off things are, they are not much better now.
Additional Funny: It is in the interest of cash-rich China to help resolve the eurozone debt crisis, but Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, who is visiting Britain and Continental Europe, will want a share of the West’s buying power in return.
You have seen the trail pictures of the
deer and coyote, but it seems we also have foxes!:
The wilds of Massachusetts!
Today in history, the ATM is released!: ATM via Little Bits of History
Had a crazy "work on the house" day. Moved tons of furniture that we are getting rid of out to the garage, of course most of it was on the second floor and had to be brought downstairs. Mowed the front and back lawns because it was finally dry for like 3 hours today, woo hoo. Cleaned up the den area where the magic of Economic Disconnect get done. Finally settling in for the evening. The open of "True Blood" is tonight and my wife is a monster fan so I will be watching that in case Anna Paquin is naked again, lol.
The Easy Solution
I was thinking about this Greece debt thing and it finally hit me what the easy fix is. Good thing is not only will this work for every other problem the markets are having, but it has already been used to great effect as well. I have no idea why this has not happened yet.
So Greece is having issues because they are broke and spend too much and take in too little. Who doesn't? The problem is Greece is part of the Euro and so cannot just print their way to prosperity, but must work withing the Euro framework. As Geek debt can only be issued to "real" investors at rates that are far to high (over 10% on the 5 year I think) for the country to pay, the ECB (Euro Central Bank) makes their own loans to Greece at low rates (more around 3-5%) by issuing new money and other games. This way Greece can take longer to not be able to pay and by some miracle maybe will be able to years later.
So why not just cut out the process of it all? In the new world market, Germany pays say 2% for 5 year debt, so Greece should pay 4% because they are having issues. By decree the "market" price for Greek debt can only be sold at 4%! Problem solved! This can work for any problem out there where a free market is saying risk is not being paid for, just eliminate that entirely.
But GYSC, won't the bond vigilantes get mad? Won't market players shun Greek debt because of the risk and not making enough to justify it? They can try it. But where else are they going to go with their cash? They will take what they are told and like it, especially if a guarantee is behind it. If we are going to play fairy land pretend, we might as well get to it in size.
By various routes all debt is being artificially fixed at some price not set by free markets anyway, so let's just stop all the games. The central banks of the world can set prices wherever they feel is correct, and market players can take it or leave it. If they leave it in droves, the central banks just buy it all anyway, so there is no difference here. The Greek debt games is a sick pantomime of silliness anyways, why not take it to the next level? I am right about this because anyone using their own money will not loan to Greece, but the ECB/IMF will buy all the debt anyway. The Parliament vote is a joke, makes no difference what those clowns do, this is going on.
Market Operations
It is homework night but I think I would have to see what happens tomorrow before I could place positions anyway. Tonight I will work out a watch list with targets and ideas, then tomorrow see what I think will work. I am still in SH and PSQ, and made a nice win on MAKO this week. It's annoying but a bunch of the stocks I worked on over the last 2 Sundays have popped really nice (WSTLA, HNSN, CNU) but what can you do.
The game last night was fun and I got to see Champion Boston Bruin Shawn Thornton up close as well. It did light rain all night, but what can you do?
Saturday Night Live
No Friday, no problem! Just move the show to Saturday night.
Dusty - The Cat Burglar!
This cat has stolen over 600 items over 3 years. Near the end of the clip there is surveillance footage of him bringing home stolen things, amazing:
Cartoon Funny?
All those tales of innocent cartoons holding hidden jokes are true:
see more funny videos, and check out our Yo Dawg lols!
Not nice.
Why Teenage Boys Want Picture Phones
They can come in handy:
see more This is Photobomb
Cool Stuff
-You may have seen the stone city of Petra in the third Indiana Jones film:
-The Ancient Pueblo People in the US Southwest also used stone as a place to build a city:
OK, not a film, but one of my all time favorite Highlander episodes was "Forgive Us Our Trespasses". This episode explores how muddled one's history can become when you live for 100's of years. In this episode the main character Duncan Macleod is hunted down over time by the friend of man Macleod killed years ago in the British-Scottish wars. Skip on to the last 10 minutes, starting at 39:33 and see how well acted and moving this series could be at times:
"With my shield or on it." So classic.
In an era when pretty much every film was court related in some way, one of the better ones was "Presumed Innocent" starring Harrison Ford. I could only find a crappy quality trailer, but this film is a must see:
Rock Blogging
Making music breaks since 2007.
My friend C-T requested this strange video of "Fire Water Burn" by The Bloodhound Gang and the video is really funny:
Where did you see that one C-T??? Nice.
Gawains reminds me that I once lost a bet for money to my wife because I was SO sure The Grateful Dead performed "Don't Fear the Reaper" but it was Blue Oyster Cult, ugh:
With a little "The Stand Action".
How about Pee Wee Herman's rendition of "Tequila", sorry, no embed available!
Found this super great live performance by Lynyrd Skynyrd for "Simple Man":
WOW!!!!!
Ok, two tunes left.
A little Megadeth with "Hangar 18":
Not bad at all.
For last call I wanted to play a tune I have had up before. Last weekend I listed it over at the 12631 Pelican Room and I was surprised how many had not heard it, and really happy with the response to it!
I had a whole paragraph I was going to write about this selection, but I will be brief. Readers know Randy Rhoads is in my estimation the greatest guitar player of all time. To hear him give new life and a new temp to a Black Sabbath classic like "Children of the Grave" is one thing, yo get it live is pure joy. This weekends must hear (and LEAVE an opinion on this, I want to hear you!) is when Randy cuts loose at the 3:00 mark and to this day it is in the top 2 for greatest works ever for me:
I am having bad flashbacks to the summer of two years ago, known around these parts as "the lost summer". Raining every weekend sucks and can really shorten your summer if you like outdoor things to do. Here is hoping we can get out of this recurring pattern soon, ugh.
Note: I should be attending "Bruins Night" at a New Hampshire minor league baseball game for a friends son's birthday tomorrow night so there will not be the usual Friday Night show, unless it rains! Maybe Saturday night.
Whiplash!
The cable station TNT has nothing on the markets as of late in the 'We Know Drama' theme! How about today's whiplash action?:
You saw the neck brace, yes?
I could spend some time talking about all the stuff that happened during the day, but you probably already know about it. Quick list:
-Follow through on the Bernanke "bemused speech"
-With oil dropping NOW is a great time to tap the strategic oil reserve
-Greece finds ground with IMF for a austerity deal (sure to make the strikes in that country go away!) and will vote next week
I wanted to point out one thing that I have been hammering away at as of late and that is sentiment.
If the sentiment and fear indicators are correct you would not see any reaction to a known parameter like the Greece news. Traders and others would just plod along reducing position sizes and raising cash. We are not seeing this. Every tidbit that comes out whether it be Greece or QE 3 dreams, the markets get ripped to the upside via panic buying. If you are afraid you are not looking for "a" bottom or "the" bottom, you are looking for the exits period.
Making the rounds on the Internets there are all kinds of views; bearish, bullish, neutral, confused (me). Still, the large majority are made up of folks just begging for any uptick to get long. If 30% are bullish, this seems wrong and so again I saw the metrics that gauge this stuff are not applicable in this tape. I know quite a few very good market players read here, by all means leave a comment or email me (I can check my smart phone for email during the day, amazing!) and let me know what you are seeing.
In the end, the Greek Parliament has to vote on the austerity plan next week, and it WILL pass, that is a given. The data is coming in weak (jobs numbers are atrocious!) and should for another month at least. We have a bemused FED head and a market that wants to run higher. In short, it's a mess. Unless you can make quick hit plays (like my MAKO win) this action is too crazy to get way long/short/involved. I really do wish it stops raining, this is prime time fishing time!
I had plans for tonight, and of course all kinds of stuff happened today. Makes sense. A couple things I had on my mind today, more tomorrow.
If You are a Dancer, You Don't Want to Get Backed into a Corner
In boxing circles, if you have no real punching power, and maybe a suspect chin, you NEVER EVER want to get backed into a corner and get worked over by a real fighter. So WTF!!!! was Bill Gross thinking by Tweeting this insane post today?:
Bizarre? Puzzling? Yes it was.
Mr. Gross is recently famous for "shaking hands with the government" as they bought out all his Agency mortgage debt (more like shaking it when its done Bill?) but besides that Gross manages the biggest bond fund in history and unless he is a total moron, MUST know his Tweets are seen by the whole investing world. Gross made the worst mistake a market player can do, name an event (or price) and a time point! No one cares if Economic Disconnect says the Nasdaq will be at 5000 and/or 1000 on August 15th, 2011 because I am a hack. Bill Gross is not a hack. If August comes and goes and he is wrong, well he set himself up for that. Anyone have any thoughts on this I do welcome them, very bemusing.
Another dancer on par with the worst pitty patters of ring history is Ben Bernanke. This man can dance, but I do give him major credit today, he finally admitted the truth: “We don't have a precise read on why this slower pace of growth is persisting”
I guess Bernanke is bemused as well. Welcome to the party pal!
I have plans for tomorrow night and Friday night so probably no posts on those nights. Will have to do a Saturday blog instead!
Turn and Burn!
How about that for a ripper to the upside? I have not used the term "panic buying" in a while but that is sure how it seemed today, except for the crappy volume. Two years of low volume moves up make this one not alone.
I will probably get my two shorts closed out tomorrow. I am down 1% in SH and up .5% in PSQ. On Sunday night I had worked on two rebound ideas, CERP and MAKO. I did nothing on Monday and at today's open MAKO was already up 2% plus. I figured why not? I placed my order via my new smart phone (I can trade during the day!) and proceeded to rack up a nice 6% win when I sold near the close! Not bad for a few minutes work, this stuff is easy! I stayed away from CERP because I had not realized how small a company it was, so I left it alone.
Here is the chart for MAKO I worked on Sunday night, notice the price pin action (click for larger view):
Nice setup at $27 and all it needed was an up market, BOOM!
So what happened today? I have no idea. The easy answer is that the impending Greek vote on the government giving in to the bankers was a big positive catalyst. Hard to think that was not already factored in though. Looking around the past few days I have seen evidence of perhaps another reason markets are pepping up. Well besides Barry Ritholtz closing his short positions.
It all started with Bill Gross (my favorite, lol) Tweeting some crap about the FED moving to cap the 2 and 3 year interest rates via some new exotic monetary game, known as Operation Twist 2. Mr. Gross is far better connected than most, so of course this off note was taken very seriously. Is the FED already getting set to intervene in markets more? They said no way, but we all know how that goes.
Then we have some real action in commodities, and I don't mean metals and energy:
These things are really going up. Do people smell more liquidity and higher prices going forward? Hard to tell, this is not my area.
It was my theorem that political pressures and an exploded balance sheet would keep the FED on hold until things got pretty ugly. Instead a small market correction and some weakening market indicators have the buzz going around that some kind of "stimulus" is now in play. If the FED meeting tomorrow unveils any new plans, it will only make sense to get triple dog dare you long. I mean go long and lever that all up as well. If 6% down and a weak Philly Fed report causes instant action, no one can ever lose ever again. Respected FED watchers like Calculated Risk do not see tomorrow's announcement as anything new at this point. Someone has to be wrong.
In any case, the downtrend lines and channels I have drawn for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were pierced a tiny bit today. With confirmation over the next few days I will have to proclaim my move down idea dead. Volatile times so be careful out there if you are in this market.
I am a bit short on time and my computer is acting messed up so an off topic post tonight. I did have some market stuff to go over, but maybe tomorrow night.
Theme Songs
For some reason I had a particular shows theme song jammed in my head first thing this morning, and now I have thought about a bunch of TV show theme songs hence this post.
Who does not love the intro from Miami Vice?:
Ever wonder what happened to Crockett's Ferrari Daytona? Well, here you go:
Then he got the Testarossa.
I loved the show Hunter:
Fred Dryer!
Del Shannon's classic "Runaway" was featured in the show Crime Story:
Nice.
I admit it, I saw every Beverly Hills 90210 episode all the way to the end....:
Guilty.
On USA channel the best double header was watching Renegade before The Highlander came on!:
Lorenzo!
Ok, so what was the song I had stuck in my head? The theme from 21 Jump Street:
Holly Robinson performed the title song herself. Loved that show.
I did actually make it out fishing today! I got a late start after waking up late and doing the grocery store run. I did not feel like loading up the Kayak and the Merrimack River is still pretty high, so I took aim at the best smallmouth bass water for fish of size in Massachusetts, The Wachusett Reservoir.
Wachusett is a large lake, and it is connected to The Quabbin Reservoir by an underground aqueduct. I found these two pictures of the monster dam at one end of Wachusett, you used to be able to fish around the dam but they do not allow anyone near that area after 9-11 anymore:
Looking at the face of the dam a ways back:
Would you want to live in the homes just below the dam!!!?? Not me.
Anyways, this reservoir is tough to fish. No boats or canoes allowed, only shore fishing. This is hard because the way the reservoir was made, the water gently slopes out as it gets deeper, but it does not get really deep until after about 100 feet away from shore. Of course all the big fish are located off the deep points way out there. You have to have equipment that can fire a lure all the way out there. Berkley Fireline helps with this.
I went to my favorite spot, gate 8, and walked the 3/4 miles path to get to the water. The local reservoir management department was doing some serious logging in the area:
Got wood?
When you go to Wachusett you are not going to catch many fish, but the ones you do catch tend to be big. Huge. I have seen 8 pound smallmouth swimming in years past. My personal best was a jaw-dropping 6 plus pounder back in 2003 I think. I have pictures, but they are actual pictures as in old school film developing! Maybe I can scan them.
Here is a picture looking out along the bank (click for larger and better view!):
The other direction, some people were fishing the big sandbar:
So how did I do? I caught one small fish (no picture) and was leaning towards packing it in. I saw some kind of mash up going on along the bank about 50 yards from where I was fishing, so I moved my butt on over there. I saw huge swirls in the water along with a bunch of minnows jumping out of the water for dear life. I knew there had to be a big boy around. I threw my black 5 inch Senko out, and as soon as it hit the water it was grabbed and taken. I reeled in the slack line and pulled back, BIG FISH!!!!
After some aerial moves and a great fight, I landed this big smallmouth bass. I would say it was 4.5 pounds, a really nice fish:
That is my small tackle box and my new SMART PHONE in the picture for some scale. It stinks taking fish pictures by yourself, but here is another shot:
So pretty.
The fish was released withing 1 minute and swam away looking all pissed. I got you! It was a good day.
Market Operations
It is homework night, and I will update later if I like anything. Greek Debt drama should be fun this week. My number one pick from last week, BKH, would have been a 4% winner if I had bought some, ugh.
I decided to join the new era and got a smart phone today. I went with the Droid Revolution by LG. It is pretty amazing and I think it is more powerful than my desktop computer! Thing is, it's complicated with all the stuff it can do! I am overwhelmed actually. First thing I did was turn off the annoying auto-complete function because that pissed me off. I am still working with it but it is a bit intimidating. You people can use these things? Wow.
Saturday Night Fights
A few boxing clips for your entertainment.
Marvin Hagler KO3 Mustafa Hamsho
A rematch after a bloody brawl won by Hagler (TKO11) saw "The Syrian Buzzsaw" get knocked out for the only time in his career. Catch the vicious combo at the 7:45 mark and then the lightning fast combination that floors Hamsho at the 8:20 mark:
Had Sugar Ray Leonard fought Hagler at this point he would not have made it to round 5.
Muhammad Ali KO3 Cleveland Williams
Cleveland "Big Cat" Williams was a feared heavyweight contender all through the 1960's. In perhaps his finest display of boxing, Muhammad Ali makes it look easy as he destroys Williams near the end of round 2 (5:20 mark on) and the fight is topped in round 3:
Yes, I think the Ali before his years away from boxing due to legal issues was the greatest heavyweight of all time.
Aaron Davis KO9 Mark Breland
Back when good fights could be seen on free TV, this war between mark Breland and Aaron Davis was a wild treat. Davis, with a broken right hand and closed eyes, delivers the BOOM at the 4:48 mark of the 9th round:
WOW.
Jeff Harding KO12 Dennis Andries
In a fight he could not win on points, Harding hammers the gas pedal in the last round to stop Andries and win the Light Heavyweight title. Last round starts at the 2:45 mark:
I had some stomach bug all last night and it was not fun. Not much sleep so had to take the day off. Feeling much better and ready to post on Friday night.
Market Observations
Another tough week in the markets on the long side. The big bounce came and went a couple of times and today's action was muted on Option Expiration day.
My picks from Sunday night would have done ok, and my #1 pick, BKH, would have been a solid winner if I had picked some up early in the week,and sold mid-day today:
Those are not actual positions, but the Freestockcharts default setting. Oh well, what can you do! Dang BKH.
Anyways, plenty of Greek drama this weekend and Monday should be interesting. TRB had this scary historical note on June Triple Witching days: June Triple Witching – the Aftermath’s a Bitch
The June stats are so bad, in fact, I ask you to consider this as being something more than just data mining - The week after a June Triple Witching Week has been negative for the Dow Jones Industrials 19 out of the last 19 years.
Yikes.
Until Sunday, that's all the market stuff I want to write about.
Friday Night Entertainment
Starting the show to end the week.
A Little Help
My friend over at The Big Steel Keg cooking site, Boat-n-BBQ, is a real nice guy. Not only does he make the most killer dog treats (Lose a Finger Dog Treats, reviewed previously) but now he is doing a great thing for the Muscular Dystrophy Association (MDA). He is part of a nifty fund raising idea where the person's "bail" is set and you have to donate in order to get them out! Pretty cool! I have donated (anonymously, my name will not show up on the list so ha!) and I would ask readers to swing on over to the site: Boats Bail Money
If you can help, anything is great. If you have gained value by reading this site, step on over and donate a few dollars to a worthy cause. Thanks so much all.
This is So Funny
Caught this video when I was watching Kevin Harvick wins on YouTube. While I don't think the language is that great (a bit rough) it is hilarious to see when Dale Earnhardt Jr. runs out of gas on the final turn at Charlotte and Harvick sweeps up the win this lady is soooo pissed!:
Hee hee.
Funny Pictures
This one is great:
see more After 12
NO BOND HOLDER HAIRCUTS, BLAAAAAA!:
see more This is Photobomb
No worries, it's a soft restructure.
Film Clips
Let's see what's worth seeing.
How about making sure you have seen The Outsiders! Here is the rumble scene:
Patrick Swayze, Rob Lowe, Tom Cruise, Diane Lane, Emilio Estevez, C Thomas Howell, Ralph Macchio, just unreal!
How about when Darth Vader comes to the second Death Star? "The Emperor is not as forgiving as I am!". How forgiving is that exactly?:
Classic.
Rock Blogging
Rocking the blogosphere since 2007!
Reader C-T pings me with a request for Train and "Drops of Jupiter" and it is a good one:
Nice.
Reader Gawains (who owes me a RE report, lol!) was looking for a little Head East with "Never Been any Reason":
I have never heard that tune, very cool!
How about some 80's hair band! Here is White Lion and "Wait":
Seems my interest in old Ice-T rap caught fire as the tune "Party People" from the original Breakin 2: Electric Boogaloo is now on the Tube:
So classic.
Added: chessNwine wanted some Richard Marx and what my best chart man wants he gets! How about "Hazard" my one and only favorite from Marx:
I got two left.
"The Boxer" by Simon and Garfunkel is one of my all time favorites:
Very pretty.
Last call!
It is Father's Day this weekend and I do wish all the Dads out there a great day! Father's Day is not a good time for me. My own Dad, who taught me how to fish, how to work on the railroad, how to stay strong when things get bad, how to not let anyone bother you, and how debt is always bad in whatever form, died in 1996 (has it been that long?). I miss him every day. I don't whitewash all his shortcomings, but the good outweighed the bad by far. Anyways, here is my Dad's song, John Denver's "Country Roads" as the pops was pure West Virginia:
Busy week at real work, busy week in the yard (more below), and busy week market watching. Add to that I am joining the bandwagon for the Champion Boston Bruins! I cannot lie, I don't really care about Hockey (not since Messier's Rangers won it all!), but now all the Boston teams have won titles while I was old enough to appreciate it. I guess that means 50 years with none. Yikes!
Market Observations and Places You Should See Ok, this week has been brutal for market watchers. For the folks at home that do not follow the market (you are better off, lol) it has been hard for everyone. A few quick thoughts: -I am not closing my positions in SH and PSQ until the S&P 500 closes over 1300, or under 1190. Makes this trade easy and non-emotional, a planned trade. -The candles say today was a spinning top or indecision day. To me, indecision goes AGAINST the prior trend so tomorrow (which is options expiration!) should be a solid bull day. Be on watch for any "spike the market" rumors. -For all the bears out there (where?) Barry Ritholtz has a great catch from Jim Bianco:
“In both normalized measurements, the present VIX reading is just over its trend curve. This is a market simply unwilling to acknowledge anything unusual might be underway.
As the spate of negative economic news and the largest one-day selloff since August 2010 have not been kept secret, we have to conclude one of two things: Either the options market is correct or option buyers have been blinded by, well, blind faith. It is quite possible the latest spate of negative news is simply one in a series of crises since March 2009 that have generated a great deal of excitement and then were buried in the next rally. For more than two years, the the bears have made the headlines and the bulls have made the money, much to the consternation of the bears.
Still, as noted in March, it would be better to see a rising VIX in such a situation. What never has changed and never can change are the mechanics of market-making; each purchase of protection in the put options market or in floating-rate receiving on variance swaps demands market makers sell ever-greater quantities of stock at ever lower prices to hedge. If the present complacence is incorrect, the subsequent adjustment will be harder and more violent than it would have been otherwise.”
Hate to snip that much, but very important. -More on that angle? I talked about the margin debt vs. AAII bearish % last night and called baloney. Just makes no sense. Macro Story, who you should be stopping in on, went further in the discussion and had this post printed at Zero Hedge: Guest Post: Sentiment Surveys Or Margin Debt Who Is Smarter? Great item and here is the graph: Author Tony notes:
The chart of debit margin balances versus the five week moving average of the AAII bullish sentiment readings. Notice how bullish views peaked five months before margin levels peaked in 2007. Similarly bullish views peaked in December 2010 (the moving average peaked in February 2011) while margin levels continue to rise through April. Considering the May 1,370 high subsequent margin data when available may very well show May as the peak in margin debt.
There is at least one possible explanation for this divergence. As sellers move out of the market, this historically contrarian indicator entices leveraged longs to increase the use of margin thus supporting prices. A negative feedback loop is in fact created causing markets to resist selling pressure.
Very interesting! Think about this. -Favorite quote of the day, again via Zero Hedge re the Philly Fed index biggest collapse in some time:
And make no mistake: the downside 3 month momentum in the series at -51.10 is the worst ever: all those buying stocks in advance of more easing are completely forgetting that they will take major losses before the market is low enough to allow actual easing to proceed.
It has to get bad, and not in a wimpy relative sense, before the help arrives.
Relief Ok, enough of all of that. A little relief rally of our own, a Friday night prelude?
Mystery Solved! A while back I posted a camera capture picture of the deer that has been eating all the stuff in the birdfeeder, and in the background you could make out another creature that was hard to identify. Well this week I caught it!! Here is a somewhat iffy picture: Removing all doubt, it is a COYOTE!: Beat that Encyclopedia Brown!
Decepticons! Somehow Josh Brown's site is relevant search terms wise for Decepticons. I don't get it, I write about robots like the Decepticons all the time. I have featured the Decepticon insignia many times. I have even included the epic battle between Optimus Prime and Decepticon leader Megatron:
Decepticon trickery!
Making it Happen My friend Jennifer Hillier is going BIG TIME with a all new HARDCOVER novel, titled "Creep". Early reviews are fabulous (any doubt?) and you can see the author open her own novel here: Ain't nothing like the real thing, baby! For a person that harbors inspiration to write, this is so cool! What is better is that I will have 6 (six) copies that will be up for free in a contest when the book launches in July. No affiliation other than Jen is the bomb, I paid in full for all books.
Holy fish heads! They've been left too long in the sun midweek Smell what's beginning to reek
Taste the salmon You can touch the scales that they tried to clean You don't want to eat what's green
Gotta sell today Holy fish heads!
Hardly tasty There are salmon eyes in the fish head stew Something they brewed just for you
Race for the toilet You can stay on the pot 'til the morning light Oh we will pray you're all right
Gotta sell today, sell today
Click over for the rest!
Funny Until I thought About It From the new site The Echo Boom Blog, comes this snippet that was funny until I thought about it:
According to a study, younger Echo Boomers seem to perceive debt as a positive circumstance: Researchers found that the more credit card and college loan debt held by young adults aged 18 to 27, the higher their self-esteem and the more they felt like they were in control of their lives. The effect was strongest among those in the lowest economic class. Only the oldest of those studied -- those aged 28 to 34 -- began showing signs of stress about the money they owed.
Funny until you figure out nothing could be further from the truth.
All the rain stopped me from cutting the grass since last weekend and the lawn was looking total white trash so I had to do it tonight. All in all, it was probably helpful.
Take a Walk, Mow the Lawn Going back to last week, this 6 trading day interval has been confusing and full of mixed signals. After yesterday's big oversold bounce, today was another reversal of all that movement. Hard to know if things are coming or going.
Inflection points are difficult times, sometimes you will want to embrace a new trend that may not actually become real. Other times you will not want to give up on a prior trend no matter what you see happening. Examples are the ultra bearish market shorters that never let off the gas after March 2009. I doubt they made it to 2010. Before that, the "it's well contained, buy at a bargain" crew probably bought and lost all the way down in the financial meltdown. It happens. It is human nature.
I have laid out my belief that we are in store for more pain to the downside as a downtrend has started. I think this because of many factors I have written about. This would be a new trend, and it may not shape up. Indices could hit the 200 moving day averages, pause, and start back up again. I understand and planned for that risk. Times of change operate by their own rules, and this is a key point.
Hot money flows have levitated stocks for some time. Psychology is a major factor in this. One of the better macro sites out there is Macro Story and author Tony has allowed me to reprint this graph he had up today: Margin Debt At Multi Year Highs Click for larger view.
I have talked about margin debt before. What is important to notice here is how long the margin debt (red line) has been above the correlated SPX prices. It has not resided above the SPX for this long going back to 1997. You can see the green circles showing highs in the relationship. Why is this important? Remember this graph via Pragmatic Capitalism I had up that shows how bearish sentiment has been?: Click for larger view.
I asked for reader thoughts because I knew from market action and anecdotal evidence that nowhere near the level of bearishness indicated by this chart existed in the real world. I wanted to call it a false data set. Maybe people were saying they bearish looking 6 months out, but they were not betting money that way. The margin debt confirms this unless most of it was silver shorting on margin.
I bring this up because the AAII sentiment survey may not be applicable as a contrarian play. A collapse in margin debt (this drop is going to hurt people's accounts) would be better I think. If it is not, what other gauges may not be as sharp as past times?
In any case, I would advise taking a walk or mowing the lawn if you are in this market. There is no reason to try and peg a bottom here. If things stabilize and then start back up, you can pass on that first 5% move and focus on the 10% after. If we are really setting up for a move down, it's harder to make money in a downtrending market without going short, which I don't really like to do. Yes, I know I am short now via SH and PSQ, but it's first time in a while. Down markets tend to be very volatile and that makes cashing in harder as well. Just my two cents.
It is actually kind of cold here now! Mid fifties and very wet makes it feel even colder. May have to turn back on the heat for tonight, wow!
What a Relief! Turnaround Tuesday delivered the goods, and a big rally occurred today in just about everything. I had reset my bounce picks for last night, and had on standby orders for ALIM, SNCR, and BKH but of course 2/3 of the jump today was right at the open so unless you were in yesterday or got in pre-market a a good price most of the gains went off in 1 second at the open. What can you do.
So is that it? Is the monster (kidding) 6-7% move down in the markets over? Reading around it seems consensus is that it is for a while. Whatever the markets were pricing in downside wise must be all set if a multi week rally is at hand. Today's action did damage to my short plays of SH and PSQ. There are plenty of charts that look much better after today on the long side. I figure to sit tight until after Thursday's action and decide what's next trading wise then.
Big picture I still see a slowdown in progress, and the removal of QE which served as a tremendous psychological boost is at an end. If there was a one off shock, like Japan, I would be more apt to call an end to the trend change and look for much more upside. As economic data comes in slower and FED stimulus is weened off, I don't think the overall trend can be switched as of now. A break and close over 1300-1305 on the S&P 500 may change my mind.
Welcoming the Robot Era With Open Arms It concerns me that Economic Disconnect is perhaps the only voice of reason and discussion about the certain takeover of the Earth by Robots in the near future. While many feel their Roomba is a nifty tool to clean the floors, I see the start of humanity's demise. Maybe it's just me.
My friend Downtown JB of TRB sent me an interesting story via Laughing Squid: Shanghai Man Wears Homemade Mark I Iron Man Suit To Work Here it is: Your first idea about this maybe: -What a dork! -I LOVE IRON MAN, WOW! -Too much time on his hands... And those are all reasonable reactions. Allow me to tell you what I see.
I see a guy trying to mimic what he sees as robotic superiority. Call it robot envy.
In the classic novel World War Z ,the Zombie War, there was a section where remaining humans were so shocked and traumatized by the zombie apocalypse, they started to behave like zombies and even tried to roam the streets as zombies, hoping to fit in to the new gruesome era. Made no difference, the real zombies just ate them up.
So lets just get something straight right now; there will be no chance to 'fit in' with the robot era. No AI enabled machine is going to see your old Facebook page, notice you wearing a suit like this one, and calculate "Oh, that carbon is so cool, trying to go all silicon gangsta! We should allow him a place in the new world!". It is not going to happen. In fact the robots will look on humans trying to become more machine like with concern, as cybernetic human hybrids may threaten them. No, all will be dismissed with extreme prejudice.
Market Non-Operations Off of last nights work I had orders for both BKH and ZGNX in this morning. Before the open it was clear any bounce today was going to be muted, so I pulled the orders. May revisit the picks from last night later this week. ZGNX was up 7% at one point today but gave it all back before the close. Plenty of good looking bounce ideas failed to do anything at all today. I am still in SH and PSQ.
Where's the Bounce? Today was set up well for a bounce, but it did not happen.
We could rehash all the worries the market may have, or jump into charts and other stuff. Or we could think about a way to get an idea if/when things are going to turn back up.
We need a rumor or a real news release. Calculated Risk notes this in regards to the Greece ongoing debt drama:
Everyone is focused on June 20th when the 17 euro zone ministers will meet in Luxembourg. There is also a meeting on Tuesday this week (June 14th), although there will not be a press conference following the meeting. Someone will probably blink before the 20th.
So if there is some kind of leak or rumor how Greece will be solved in a hurry (for the 1,290,067th time) how markets react will say a lot about where things are going.
We got a small piece of this when the word that bank charges would be dropped from 3% to maybe 2.5 or 2%. The reason banks got a bid is not the drop, but that most think (correctly?) the charges will be 0%, as the banks want it. The financials have been a bit better since then and that shows that people want to buy when risk is taken off the table.
So either a "Greece Saved!" or some other kind of rumor/news will probably make the rounds this week and if that fails to ignite some kind of move up, that will be very telling.
It is far too early for QE 3.0 trial balloons to be floated so that is not going to happen.
Dropping Hummers From Cargo Planes Air dropping Hummers in Iraq, don't leave your foot in the aisle!!! (via Geekologie):
Crappy weather here all weekend. Never did stop raining. All my fishing gear is ready to go and the Kayak is cleaned and set up as well. Hopefully next weekend I can kick off fishing season.
Pinned Stocks So things have been beat down for about 6 weeks now. What's next? That is the million dollar question of course, well, slightly less for my account size, LOL.
Right now is actually a good time to look for some long ideas. It is a concept I like to call Pinned Stocks. During a down trend (does not have to be as large as the one we have right now) you can search for stocks that have recently held up well, or have even grabbed a small gain. The key here is to look for heavy buying volume that has come in. If buyers are getting in line to buy shares in company XYZ when things have been tough, they just might go nuts if a broad market bounce occurs. These types of finds are fun because usually you only need play the position for a day or two to capture upside targets.
I am starting homework right now and using the iBankCoin PPT screener it is fairly easy to sort stocks on this type of criteria. I don't know if I will find anything, but I will update later if I do.
Along this line, chessNwine has a few candidates that fit this idea: Hitting the Pipe Hard I really like the look of chess pick WES from his chart.
Update: Ok a rare look into GYSC's mind this Sunday. Here are a few finds chart wise (click any for larger view):
My number one pick, BKH: Back this chart out to a weekly view and it's even more strong.
Number two, ZGNX, big time bottom here: Like this one here.
A few assorted ideas: SNCR: Looking up.
UVE: Sellers may be done, and stochastics are looking up.
CNU has a great inverted hammer but want to see some buyers come in: Interesting.
As always, not investment advice! I do what I do and show you. All of these plays carry risk. There are about a million charting sites better than mine so take a look and see what you think.
Ray Mancini KO1 Art Frias The original "Boom Boom" almost gets knocked out himself at the 2:04 mark of this clip, a wild exchange at the 3:40 mark, and then Mancini wins the WBA Lightweight title with a wild 1st round knockout:
Jersey Joe Walcott KO7 Ezzard Charles One of my favorite old school fighters, Jersey Joe Walcott, becomes the oldest heavyweight champion at the time by stopping Ezzard Charles in round 7 with a classic left hook:
Ken Norton Should Never Have Fought George Foreman Styles make fights and Norton was WAY too easy to hit to fight a killer like Foreman:
Thomas Hearns KO2 Pipino Cuevas Cuevas was a long time champion and tough as nails, but "The Motor City Cobra" blows him away with a disgusting right hand in round 2 (skip to 5:50 mark):
Salvador Sanchez KO8 Wilfredo Gomez I don't know why but when Mexican fighters face off against Puerto Rican fighters it's always nasty! Here the great featherweight Sanchez stops Gomez around the 1:50 mark of the clip:
Almost as brutal as Julio Cesar Chavez ending Edwin Rosario's career (KO11) in maybe the most brutal beating I have ever seen:
Terrible.
James Toney KO11 Michael Nunn You can hear in the Tony corner "We are running out of rounds, we got to dog this man!", and over in Nunn's corner Angelo Dundee says "Don't get sloppy on me!". A few minutes later Toney scores the big upset:
Market Observations I was thinking after yesterdays rally my short ideas via SH and PSQ might get blown out today. The charts for being short took a hit, even as the volume was super low as usual. Still, the late day sell off gave me some reason to think it was still the way to go. Then today's drop really had legs to it. If not for the banking sector getting a late day pump (never on purpose right?) by some rumors that Basel Capital requirements might get lowered things could have been really ugly.
My thesis remains the same; a big drop in oil, food costs, and stocks will be needed if QE 3.0 is to happen. Looking around I see some think another FED induced ramp up is needed RIGHT NOW as the markets are down like 6%. Not good enough. David Tepper agrees with this line of thinking.
Today could be THE bottom, a bottom, or just a start of some really nasty action. Right now is a good time to review risk in play as well as how to get moved should hot money start chasing the market down instead of up. It does work both ways you know. Be careful out there!
Soapbox speech begins here What is funny is that I think if the FED would just come out and say "No more QE and we are raising rates in two months, you are on your own!" things would get ugly for a bit, but then that bottom would be something we can build on. I am not against markets or want things to go down, I just want all support taken away and to let the market work. We have a great country filled with the best people in the world, I know we can figure a way out of this and back where we want to be. If the fast money types would have to go to real work for their cash (they can do it) instead of hoping to play the next bailout/handout angle, they might start allocating capital to business that will build America and create jobs. This will bring the economy back. 30 Billion for a coupon sharing site so you can go out to eat with friends is not going to add anything to the real economy other than monster gains for Groupon share holders. Well, for a few weeks anyway.
I am a believer in America. Get the dreams of easy money off the table and lets get to work. End soapbox speech
Friday Night Entertainment No worries, Friday night fun is on and has been since 2007.
Game of Thrones - Your Guide I have not been watching HBO's "Game of Thrones" but I do have them recorded and hope to catch them. If you are into this show or the books, you need to stop over at David Batista's place for his episode reviews, which are detailed and hilarious: Ep. 8 Reactions: "The Pointy End"
Massachusetts Tornado This was pretty severe and we are not used to such things up here: 2011 New England tornado outbreak You can see the path in this picture (long brown line): Scary.
Picture Funnies Visual cues.
Hopefully this look will catch on, yes?: see more After 12
A new baby brother, so cute.....: see more This is Photobomb Creepy.
Film Clips Some clips to get you watching some good stuff.
The film "Legend" was bad overall, but Ridley Scott did manage some wonderful scenes, like "Proposal of Darkness". Skip to the 2:55 mark and this one is a gem:
Great music as well. The Darkside always beckons.....
One of my favorite new era films is "Constantine". Just a sick as all get out movie, I highly recommend. Check this scene out Lucifer confronting the angel Gabriel:
You will have to see it to get the context.
Rock Blogging Keeping you rocking at all times.
Plenty of requests this week, lets see what I can do.
Lead off spot is set for Pat Benatar's "Hit Me With Your Best Shot" for my good friend Soleil, who takes every hit she gets and keeps on fighting. Courage to make you feel really small in that girl!:
Live version too, NICE! All my best Soleil!
Great request by reader Gawains for Bad Company's wonderful "Shooting Star":
Nice new live version!
My full apologies to reader Watchtower, but when I hear a remake that beats the old song, it's all I can hear. Let's roll "Detroit Rock City" by The Mighty Mighty Bosstones and make sure you stay for the sick sax solo:
Another wild thunderstorm here! High winds and crazy lightning are causing issues again with the Internet and my commute home. Home late and getting a late start. Not much heavy stuff tonight
Get requests in for Friday Night. I changed the comments section in case anyone was having an issue. The comments will now go to another page. Not sure if this was an issue, we will see how it goes. I like the pop up window version in case there are graphs and stuff I like to reference, but we will see how it goes.
You Call It I admit, I just blew about an hour trying to figure out this chart that was on Pragmatic Capitalism in an article by Charles Rotblut, CFA: Bearish Sentiment Surges It seems since the Japan nuclear event (or on-going crisis if you follow it) most buyers have been bearish and are as bearish looking 6 months out as of NOW almost as much as they were at the end of the world back in March 2009. I have no idea and I have tried to wrap my head around it for a while. The time spent in the bearish section is also without compare since the fall in stocks last summer. So what is going on? I honestly have no idea.
Offer up ideas in the comments, I would welcome some.
The Carstache This has to be a joke right?: I will buy 3 of these things if any reader wants one shipped out to them to place on their car. You must submit a picture of the car with the carstache so I can post it. Come on, you know this rocks!
I wanted to say thanks to The Fly for taking a look at my blog yesterday, along with about 20 others. At first I was sort of pissed at my review, but when I thought about it, it made sense. I do use an old Blogger template, and I do populate the site with pictures of weird stuff. I do blog for fun, I have a day job, and I do enjoy this very much. I am all over the road, I like to discuss plenty of things not directly finance. All in all I was glad he stopped in.
Enough Talk Well I did not figure to talk about a strategy for weeks and then take a pass!
This morning I opened positions in both SH (S&P Short Fund) and PSQ (Nasdaq Short Fund). The market was about even and I figured a later day sell off might happen so I pulled the trigger. The S&P closed right under my target entry area of 1280. To be fair, I wanted a rally back to 1300 to open these positions, but it never shaped up this week. It still may by weeks end, but I felt like it was time to go on this one.
What is great about this trade is there are clear places to walk away. If the S&P breaks back over 1300 and holds, that would be step one out the door. A close over 1330 is step two (should leave) and if we arrive back at 1360, it's a busted trade without too much damage done. Otherwise it is in play along the new trendline down to the 1180-1190 area I have targeted.
It is going to be 100 degrees here on Thursday, WOW!
How is This Going to Go? iBankCoin headmaster, The Fly, had an interesting post up last night that I did not see until this morning: ATTENTION BLOGGERS: I’m Handing Out Traffic The Fly says to drop a link an he will check your site out. I was at work and I cannot sign onto things there so I was thinking I would be late to get a chance for Fly to drop his smackdown on my humble site. I was in luck, my man chessNwine left a link to this site in the comments! I am a bit nervous to see what happens, I have not been writing too many trading posts (waiting for my moment, details below) so I have no idea what is going to happen. It should be funny as hell no matter what.
Economic Disconnect: Okay, the site design here is atrocious and the author is clearly just blogging for fun. Sifting through the articles, I’m guessing he is young and somewhat interesting. He is definitely too much all over the road. If he wants to take his little bloggy to the next level, he will need to focus on a theme and run hard with it. Otherwise, it will end up in the circular file. Grade B-
Ouch.
In case I get a bunch of views tonight, here is a post a bit more financial centered about calling the top (for nervous traders) in silver and gold: When to Sell Gold and Silver
Trade Your Plan Based on market action and my years of FED watching I detailed a plan for the end of QE 2.0 and the recent slowing of all data on the economy. That plan is found in this post, Short Takes, and I have had graphs up showing the targets for the S&P 500.
I figured the FED would sound out loud that they are off QE mode yet still keeping rates at zero. Bernanke made his speech today (I thought it was supposed to be yesterday, sorry about that) and he signaled very clearly the FED is not rolling out anything new at this time. Some thought the FED may open up the idea of more help (in whatever form) but it just does not work that way. They had to do this and I was counting on it to open my short trades.
The only thing missing was that I wanted a bounce in the S&P 500 to the 1300 level, but markets tanked at the close when news spread of the FED speech. What can you do.
Here are the two charts (click for larger view) for the short ideas I am going with. S&P 500 Short Fund SH:
The Nasdaq Short Fund PSQ:
Both SH and PSQ have just broken out of a long term channel. I am looking for a pullback (markets go up) and then will try to enter.
Everything is just too high and too hot for any intervention right now. It is going to take more bad data, not just on housing, and a fearful market to get the FED involved again. This should not be a fast move. Congress will be unable to offer anything and that leaves the FED once again. Long summer ahead. I am allocating two positions to these stocks. This does not mean I am not looking for long ideas, I am, but these two have been an idea I have had for a while. We shall see.
