Crazy Times

Home a bit late tonight so a quick post.

BTFD?
If readers are unaware what BTFD means it stands for 'Buy-The-F$cking-Dip'. It was featured in a hilarious Xtranormal video and has served as a bull rallying cry and just a bear crying shame.

Reader Anon asked me in the last post comments:

GYSC - you going to BTFD??? Many bears, when the "D" comes, do not have the stomach to "B". Instead, their fear escalates as the market continues to go down (and subsides as it goes up).
It is very tough to go against your nature and buy when the dip comes. Can ya do it, or are you going to retrench?

Fair enough.

My answer is, I will be buying stocks that are attractive to me on a technical basis. Right now in my trading account I am working short term trades (a week to 10 days tops) and so if something look good to me I will be a buyer. I am right now in six open positions (no stops hit today) which is high for me. That's the short answer.

The long answer is no, I would not be putting large amounts of my net worth to work on this dip or any other in a broad sense in the markets. I don't trust them and I do not believe in them. Not anymore. This last 'dip' has erased weeks to even months of gains in many names, that's how fast it can change. I sit in cash and physical metals gold and silver for almost my whole capital position. That's what works for me and has been working well for a long time. I think it depends on the type of bear, but some bears are not afraid to buy on dips, they will not buy no matter what. Others are like you describe, looking for that 10% drop and when it comes saying "well it could drop some more so I'll wait...".

I will put out an ultra bearish type of scare paragraph as we head into the weekend:
I was a little 'scared' at the March lows in 2009, but the world as it sits right now does in fact give me real pause.

Have a good night.